Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[kennyp52] 14/7/2020 09:05

and CEY down 🤔

[martinfrench] 14/7/2020 09:02

Azalea,

There is one major problem with your investment strategy, if thsts what you are actually doing.

You are simply following others statements and don't really seem to know the underlying fundamentals, which makes it dangerous because you are always 2 steps back and await the latest copy and paste

Rather than blindly follows shock announcements try and learn the real economic stuff.

Not saying you are alone in this approach on here....

[stevedaytrader] 14/7/2020 08:31

Azalea- the markets are way more complex than this. As witnessed in 2008, and earlier this year at the height of panademic concern, gold stocks get hit just like any other stock- if you are convinced on your view,you should sell all your CEY and other stocks and hold as cash - buying gold can be risky as evidenced in 2008. USA markets lead in most cases, Asia then follows, the eurozone. At this time, with the pandemic, the conditions are nothing like 2008, when the banks were in trouble and those in the know knew it would take ~5years to sort out, this is not the case this time. Equally, with rates so low and no sign of QE abating, likely to remain so. People don't like cash as won't make anything, the right equities will outperform it- with the current situation, some companies will win as although the markets in which they operate will have shrunk temporarily, many of their competitors will go under, making these companies better placed with increased share of the market, and when the market improves, they will been in a better position to be ready- this is already evident in the markets. These companies will have demonstrated their ability to react fast in a crisis and therefore their value increases. Many of these good companies are listed hence the within main indices are recovering from the big down earlier this year at panic time. It is, of course, well known that as the quarterly results continue to come out, many will produce poor figures, but much is priced in.

[azalea] 14/7/2020 08:08

Good morning my friend

PB35, on the 'useful gold thread' is forecasting that by the end of the month, Comex will not be able to meet its obligations due to the increase in orders to buy gold.

[azalea] 14/7/2020 06:06

A number of the pieces in the jigsaw puzzle depicting a picture of a decline in the U.S. economy fell into place yesterday, as the DJIA lost all but 10.5pts from its earlier rise of circa +440pts, whilst the S&P and Nasdaq indexes closed in the red of -29.82pts and -87.11pts after reaching highs of +43pts and +178pts respectively. The only piece that seems to be missing was a sustained rise in the p.o.g., which suggests that U.S. investors sold stocks right across the spectrum.

Edit:- one of the other key pieces of the jigsaw picture that might also be fitting into place relates to the value of the dollar, which is beginning to fall against the yen and the euro. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

With indexes in Asia pacific following suit overnight, I expect the same to take place in UK and Europe indexes this morning.

[fenners66] 13/7/2020 23:08

With that 196% increase in Y on Y free cash flow , I reckon there should be room in the tank to increase dividends to 6c for the first half ie +50%

[azalea] 13/7/2020 20:25

Further to my post 414, whilst the DJIA has so far held its earlier rise today of circa +440pts, the S&P 500 has fallen from a high of +43pts, to a recent +26pts, whilst the Nasdaq has fallen from a high of +187pts to a recent +64pts.

[kennyp52] 13/7/2020 19:09

Leary laffer .. good point but we are also in to much higher grades Y-o-y. I’d be happy hitting the full year ... always nice to beat it a touch .

[kennyp52] 13/7/2020 19:08

and here was me thinking azalea was a ramping young buck ... apologies

[azalea] 13/7/2020 16:23

One of the signs indicating that U.S. market indexes could begin to fall, is the reporting by companies of a reduction in y-o-y earnings. To that end PepsiCo, reports a drop in Q2 earnings, as investors brace themselves for the worst quarter since the financial crisis.

J P Morgan analysts report that where a recent number of companies have withdrawn their earnings guidance when they reported Q1 results, the range of potential outcomes is clearly greater than usual. For S&P 500, the consensus is projecting a -45% y-o-y per share growth.

Given the gyrations in the p.o.g. .Americans trading it must be getting their fingers burnt.

[azalea] 13/7/2020 15:40

Umat---
You are very kind, your thoughts are very much appreciated. Life is too short to squabble and I am sure that we will travel along together in harmony.

[larry laffer] 13/7/2020 15:31

adg

You need to say exactly what your 10c relates to. Is that full year in which case that’s about right.

If you are talking about interim, then it’s way over the top.

The increase in Q2 gold production is in effect just borrowed from Q3. The maintenance shutdowns that would normally have been carried out in Q2 Have been pushed out to Q3. So I would expect Q3 production to be lower than planned. That’s also supported by cey maintaining their FY forecast.

[adg] 13/7/2020 13:45

Anybody have any estimates of the forthcoming dividend? My thoughts are towards a 10 cent divi is feasible - historical data below;


21 Apr 2020 Interim USX 6.00 31/12/2018 31/12/2019 30/04/2020 01/05/2020 15/05/2020 10.00
31 Jul 2019 Interim USX 4.00 30/12/2018 30/06/2019 29/08/2019 30/08/2019 27/09/2019 -
25 Feb 2019 Final USX 3.00 31/12/2017 31/12/2018 22/04/2019 23/04/2019 13/05/2019 5.50
02 Aug 2018 Interim USX 2.50 30/12/2017 30/06/2018 30/08/2018 31/08/2018 28/09/2018 -
31 Jan 2018 Final USX 10.00 31/12/2016 31/12/2017 22/03/2018 23/03/2018 06/04/2018 12.50
03 Aug 2017 Interim USX 2.50 30/12/2016 30/06/2017 31/08/2017 01/09/2017 29/09/2017 -
01 Feb 2017 Final USX 13.50 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 02/03/2017 03/03/2017 31/03/2017 15.50
10 Aug 2016 Interim USX 2.00 30/12/2015 30/06/2016 08/09/2016 09/09/2016 07/10/2016 -
21 Mar 2016 Final USX 1.97 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 21/04/2016 22/04/2016 27/05/2016 2.94
12 Aug 2015 Interim USX 0.97 30/12/2014 30/06/2015 03/09/2015 04/09/2015 09/10/2015 -
23 Mar 2015 Final USX 1.99 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 23/04/2015 24/04/2015 29/05/2015 2.86
14 Aug 2014 Interim USX 0.87 30/12/2013 30/06/2014 03/09/2014 05/09/2014 03/10/2014 -

[martinfrench] 13/7/2020 13:18

i always thought you were female azalea ??

[azalea] 13/7/2020 13:09

Umat--
Having come out of retirement from my investing days, solely to invest in CEY, for all the reasons spoken by those I have mentioned by name and others, this is the very last stop for me, which at present is keeping me mentally occupied. When that stimulus goes, I will sell and save my wife having to do so and closing our dealing account for ever.

[azalea] 13/7/2020 11:38

I found Mr Roubini, a little bit difficult for me to listen to with his significant foreign accent.

I have twice attempted to listened to the complete discourse by the man on You Tube who explains in great detail using data on his white board and his own words, the potential for the Feds to go bust. However, I get to a certain point when I give up on trying to absorb the mass of information he is giving out. That said, I have got the fundamental message he is trying to convey, whereby, even if the Feds do not go bust and cause J. Powell to be removed before he resigns, the U.S. economy is so deeply mired in the cesspit, it will take years to climb out of it.

[azalea] 13/7/2020 10:07

Where have you read their forecasts, as opposed to listening to the detailed reasons
to justify their forecasts. There are so many names making forecasts for the p.O.g., Roubini does not strike a chord in my failing memory bank. You are welcome to enlighten me.

[skinny] 13/7/2020 10:02

Recent highs :-

192.9 18/05/2020

193.9 13/04/2017