Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[cinquepercento] 28/11/2018 10:06

Well,Spacedust,100.50 pence.

I guess that you will be buying in very soon. :-)

[spacedust] 27/11/2018 21:59

I'll buy in again at 100p or below. Made a lucky call selling at 112p.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/11/2018 17:08

The chart points to 97/98p.. but I'm adding on the way down in case it doesn't ..:o)

POG led the way this afternoon and the sellers had the momentum, but it could be oversold already..!, I've traded the last 4 swings reasonably well for some free shares but running up to FY and the Q4 results I'm accumulating and just buying the dips.., +/- 5p now won't matter so much when we are 150p again.

[cinquepercento] 27/11/2018 16:48

Yes,Ken, all the best for the best buy back in price.

[cinquepercento] 27/11/2018 16:35

Ken Tennis and Laurence Llewelyn Binliner :

Re: 95, 97.50 or 100 for the next low :

May the best man win! :-)

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 27/11/2018 15:20

I can see a 100p coming.., but I don't think we will drop under, just adding all the way down and see what average I can hit.., the danger of waiting I've found is you might not get a position at all if it turns tomorrow.., I've been there before and it really irritates when you see the share price on a tear and you're not holding...!

[ken tennis] 27/11/2018 15:16

Cinquepercento im looking at around the 97.50 mark to start buying it may take until Friday or even to Tuesday next week but I think its on the cards.

[cinquepercento] 27/11/2018 14:16

I will wait and hope for 95 or so to get back in.
Good luck to all. :-)

[scoble2] 27/11/2018 11:35

I am out solid

[astjgroom] 26/11/2018 23:47

And oil is falling slowly too

[ken tennis] 26/11/2018 20:12

KENNYP I’m still waiting AU on the downtrend since this morning.
Like I said earlier I’m waiting for it to go oversold on 3 month cart then I may dip in, this week will be interesting.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/11/2018 20:09

#kennyp52..., that's the beauty of buying this mid point position IMO, if the share price goes to 100 you can double down, and if it goes to 110 you can take your profits... win/win... :o)..

[kennyp52] 26/11/2018 19:25

Which way next ? That is the question 🤪

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/11/2018 16:57

Looking forward to that #casual47.., 50/200 SMA Golden Cross..., POG makes next to no profit difference +/- a couple of dollars, but it does seem to impact the share price trend regardless..

I’ve been buying the dips today.., but we might test 100p yet so there will be more opportunities for stake building ahead of the next upturn...

[casual47] 26/11/2018 16:14

So far the share price is staying above the sma100. The sma50 continues its curl upward and maybe at some point in december we will see a golden cross.

[juju44] 26/11/2018 15:56

Breakout never happened so I remain neutral . It will just go where the metals go and they go where Morgan puts them

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 26/11/2018 15:52

The sellers have it today it seems.. more bargains to hoover up... :o)

[casual47] 26/11/2018 11:11

For the 2018 guidance AISC they gave a range of US$875-US$890/oz in the latest q3 results, stating that they would more likely be at the higher end.

890 $/oz is what you get when the average Q4 AISC is 827.73 $/oz

To get to the lower end of guidance, 875 $/oz, they need to achieve 778.13 $/oz this quarter.

The interesting thing to take away from this is that they believe that while it is more likely they will get the top end of the range they do seem to believe that 778$/oz is doable this quarter, which is very good news in itself.

[casual47] 26/11/2018 10:57

If the actual AISC for Q4 is e.g 790$/oz rather than the 827$/oz projected in my calcs then the above calculations for Q4 becomes:


Average monthly EMRA payment needed (using average realised gold price of 1220$/oz):

$9,083,249.26

[casual47] 26/11/2018 10:49

If EMRA for November is 9+ million then either the AISC is closer to e.g. 790$/oz or maybe they are producing more gold, but so far I don't think we can conclude that from the shipments we have seen, so lower AISC would be more likely.

[casual47] 26/11/2018 10:46

Shipments we have seen so far:

414kg, 214kg, 392kg, 396kg.

Week of 5th November: 414kg and 392kg
Week of 12th November: 214kg and 396kg

Personally I think the 414kg + 214kg are maybe the 20k oz spill over from September.

This would mean the first two shipments for November were: 392kg and 396kg ==> ON TRACK

[casual47] 26/11/2018 10:42

So if next EMRA payment is

7-8 million: still on track
9+ million: awesome

[casual47] 26/11/2018 10:30

Here's the maths for those interested:

Data from q3 results (see table on page 6, column "9 months ended 30 Sept 2018"):

Total oz produced Q1+Q2+Q3: 334,819 oz
Average AISC achieved (Q1,Q2,Q3): 917 $/oz
Average gold recovery rate (Q1,Q2,Q3): 0.886

2018 guidance given:
Total 2018 oz: 480,000 oz
Average AISC for 2018: 890 $/oz

The above means that for q4:

oz needed: 145,181 oz
AISC needed: 827.73 $/oz
weekly avg dore in kg needed: 392 kg
Average monthly EMRA payment needed (using average realised gold price of 1220$/oz): $8,286,202.16

Note: these are averages. There is a lot of give and take that can happen from month to month. So what I am saying here is: the $9m EMRA payment for October can be far ahead of target or it could even be very slightly behind (but really only very slightly), depends how they calculate things.

[scoble2] 26/11/2018 10:03

Gold Could Test $1,250
Gold could be in for a decisive week with important market cues coming from the Federal Reserve and a host of economic data.

Gold Daily ChartGold Daily Chart
The yellow metal could also likely test gold bugs’ long-desired target of $1,250 if Wall Street suffers another woeful week after three straight weeks of decline that have made for the worst Thanksgiving performance since 1939.

US gold futures hovered at $1,230 per troy ounce in Monday’s early trade.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell presents a speech on the "The Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability" at the New York Economic Club on Wednesday. While a potentially high-volatility event for markets at any time, Powell's words are also being pointed to by Trump as a key catalyst for this year’s equities rout. The president added an additional blow on Friday by blaming Secretary Steve Mnuchin for appointing the Fed chair.

Data-Heavy Week
Powell’s speech aside, the Fed will also be issuing minutes of its November 7-8 meeting on Thursday.

The central bank is widely expected to raise US interest rates for a fourth time this year at its December meeting, and this week’s Fed events are expected to be scrutinized closely by investors for cues on gold market direction.

Other major US data for the week would be the CB Consumer Confidence index on Tuesday; GDP estimate for the third quarter and new home sales, on Wednesday; pending home sales, personal income and spending over the remainder of the week.

On the European side, there’s ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech, eurozone unemployment and inflation and China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI.