Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[ken tennis] 26/11/2018 10:00

KENNY im OFF to cut a few logs for the fire cant sit watching screen all day.

[ken tennis] 26/11/2018 09:59

KENNYP cheers for that but im going to risk staying out for a few days see how things develop.
PS nice rise on FRES today.

[kennyp52] 26/11/2018 09:26

Tested I think at 105 Ken ? If the next delivery is confirmed by Casual47 to be on target then unless Egypt decide to do a Mexico IMO this is due to rise and push past 110 .

[ken tennis] 26/11/2018 06:00

LLB as you say profit is what it’s all about, even 2.5% you would need your cash in the bank for well over a year.
I’m still on the sidelines as I see CEY chart got a bit of a pattern developed 2 weeks downtrend then 1 week fast up to hit the 110 resistance so I’m biding my time at present.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 25/11/2018 15:24

I made a dogs breakfast of my last trade just +2.5%, but it's another week tomorrow.., a 112p exit was the trade there on Thursday, but a win is still a win.. :o)

Onward and upward we go back in at 105's..!

[ken tennis] 25/11/2018 09:27

SPACEDUST you hit the jackpot at 10.00 am Thursday nice one.
I have been looking at CEY chart and don’t think I will be dipping back in until it becomes oversold on the 3 month chart.
At present the price of AU Is not having massive affects on the share
Price but I do feel that if we get a drop in AU next week this could be influential to some degree on CEY share price.
I think it needs to hold above 110
Before another leg up.
SPACE unlucky with FRES but your in below my average I’m just over 8.00
ATB Ken

[ken tennis] 24/11/2018 17:26

KENNYP it was a bit of a bloodbath on Friday for all metals and oil so I decided to keep some dry powder dry as they say, so not back in yet.
I will see how things develop on Monday.
Have a good week end
ATB Ken,

[casual47] 23/11/2018 22:56

Also, CEY has not issued new shares for fund raising reasons. Can't recall if there was an issuing of shares but if there was it would have been for employee performance plan or some such?

So not sure why he deducted a point for that also.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 22:50

It's a ridiculous table. The guy who wrote this is clueless.

E.g. They deducted a point from Centamin because they don't have "falling gearing"......er....maybe that's because they don't have debt and sit on 300m cash?

[kennyp52] 23/11/2018 18:03

Ken tennis ... you back in ? 🥳

[casual47] 23/11/2018 16:26

It could be the carried over 20k ounces account for the additional shipments of course, 20k ounces is about 630kg.

Perhaps the 414kg + 214kg were the 20k ounces, and the 396kg and 392kg were the regular shipments.

392 to 396kg will see us arrive at 145k oz if that's what they do every week. E.g. 13 x 392 delivers 145k oz if you assume a purity of 88.5% in the dore, which seems doable.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 16:17

If someone is still in touch with Siko might be useful to ask his opinion on this.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 16:15

Regarding the shipments....there appear to be some different numbers doing the rounds. I don't know if this means that one of the sources got it wrong or if there were more than one shipment.

For example:

Source: YOUM7
Monday, 05 November 2018 11:55 PM,
"The cargo village at Cairo International Airport received a shipment of gold coming from the sugar mine on a private plane on Monday, before being transferred to Canada for re-screening and selling on the international stock exchange. Sources in the village of goods said that the shipment of gold arrived on a private plane with a total of 414 kilograms of crude gold in 27 parcels"

Source: VETOGATE
Tuesday, November 06, 2018 - 12:00 p,
"The cargo village at Cairo International Airport received a shipment of gold from the sugar mine on a private jet on Monday to transport it to Canada to be purified and sold on the international stock exchange. According to a source at the airport that the shipment of gold arrived on a private plane coming from the airport of Marsa Matrouh with a total of 392 kilograms of raw gold within 23 parcels"

Both of them are within the sort of range needed to get to 145k oz this quarter, so that's not the issue. Just curious that the numbers are so distinctly different, not just in terms of weight but also number of parcels.

There was a similar thing going on last week, YOUM7 had 214kg while VETOGATE had 396kg.

[oli12] 23/11/2018 15:40

Chance to grab a few more that I did not expect. For me this is a good entry point, I expect a longer term rally based on a solid Q4 and high 2019 expectations. Naturally if they don’t find the gold then it will be a dud however I feel the risk / reward balance here is worth taking.

[charles clore] 23/11/2018 15:20

ju - patience... it's going to bounce.

[juju44] 23/11/2018 15:14

We never did get that decisive trend break

[casual47] 23/11/2018 15:11

As per q4 results they gave guidance for 2018 AISC as US$875-US$890 so they should be closer to $830 this quarter to achieve that.

Originally they gave guidance of 770$/oz AISC for 2018. Presumably they included in those calculations the transition to higher grades so for 2019 we should be closer to those original AISC and oz pa guidance figures.

[davius] 23/11/2018 13:54

The last update states AISC of $917 for YTD, $889 for the third quarter.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 11:39

I think share price of 160p upwards for gold above $1300/oz and share price of 130p upwards for gold around $1200 is not an unreasonable guesstimate.

That is of course not including news of e.g. imminent production of Cleopatra which can provide significant rerating.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 11:35

Assuming:

AISC for 2019 of 825$/oz (I think the target would be 790$/oz)

Then a 2019 gold price of $1320/oz vs $1220/oz would, roughly, result in an uplift in profits by a factor of 1.25

[davius] 23/11/2018 11:10

Thought I'd posted this, but chrome keeps opening new tabs so might have lost it whilst trying to fix the issue...

I was comparing price to expected profit factor, from April 2017 (with the share price at 190p) to today. The factor is near identical at 1.35/1.36.

Using the same figures and factor but increasing production to 580K oz for 2019 (assuming everything else stays the same) gives an share price target of 130p.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 10:28

This article should be a good read for those contrarian investors who can see value where others don't:

(needs subscription though somehow I managed to read it without, maybe the "lock" wasn't on yet)

CEY is getting a somewhat dismissive treatment here but that is exactly why it should prompt you to buy CEY.

The analyst is just looking at issues in past data and has no clue of the transient nature of what caused those issues and the real recovery story demonstrated by the up-to-date data that we already have seen with regards to shipments and EMRA payments in Q4.

When analysts start to promote shares to the retail public you can assume that the cream was already taken off the top of those shares.

CEY, on the other hand, is still unloved by analysts (excepting the recent 125p overweight rerating by Morgan Stanley) so the cream is still there to mop up for the contrarian investor who can see the shining diamond that is Centamin.

[casual47] 23/11/2018 09:22

Impossible to predict, I'm afraid, Kenny.

There's a history of Santa rallies in gold and gold miners, though sometimes this is delayed into January rather than in the run up to Xmas.

In about two weeks time we should have another EMRA payment update. That should confirm whether we are on track or possibly doing better than expected. (Imo: $7-8m is on track, anything above $9m is better than I expected)

[kennyp52] 23/11/2018 09:13

What you reckon casual47 ... 120 this side of Christmas , bit of a gamble we have production , then when production confirmed on to 130/140 ?