Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[casual47] 20/9/2018 14:36

This should go "pop" once £1 has been broken. Fingers crossed,

[qs99] 20/9/2018 14:34

Can't buy any more, the barclays platform is down!! ggrrrr

[zangdook] 20/9/2018 10:57

I don't know if this is the last chance under £1...

[casual47] 20/9/2018 09:49

What's encouraging is that the shareprice has risen despite gold price still bobbing around $1200/oz. And not only CEY but other miners also have risen or at least stopped falling.

Could be end of summer doldrums, could be the market has decided that the bottom was reached.....

[qs99] 20/9/2018 09:36

well IMO the shares seem to have risen since the site visit, so I'm in as that bodes well DYOR

[casual47] 19/9/2018 20:15

Fangs, exactly.

10 cents divi is achievable based on 100% cash flow this year, imo.

12.5 cents by dipping into their 250-300m cash buffer (with a stellar 2019 ahead they should feel relaxed about keeping a cash balance of only 250m, imo)

[fangorn2] 19/9/2018 20:10

@Casual

:)

Now looks like a decent time to top up/buy in imo.

[casual47] 19/9/2018 20:04

An illustration re. difference between H1 and H2 for Centamin:

2017 H1 free cash flow: US$50.8 million
2017 FY free cash flow: US$142 million

==> 2017 H2 free cash flow was US$ 91.1 million, nearly double H1.

2017 H1 gold production: 233,827 oz
2017 FY gold production: 544,658 oz

==> 2017 H2 gold production was 310,831 oz (1.33 times as much as in H1)

The moral of the story:
1. don't get too hung up by the H1 results.
2. H2 will be much, much better!

[fangorn2] 19/9/2018 20:02

As I mentioned before, I’m not posting now as much as I used to do, but today I thought to write this as it might help to calm your nerves and boost your confidence a little bit..

Centamin pays EMRA its estimated share from the profits on monthly basis based on each month’s production figures and POG.

On 13th June, Mr-Youssef El-Raghy stated that Centamin paid EMRA $1.1m from profits during May.
hxxps://www.masress.com/youm7/3831230

On 13th July, Mr Youssef El-Raghy stated that Centamin paid EMRA $1.4m from profits during June.
hxxps://www.masress.com/youm7/3870036

On 11th Sept, Mr Youssef Elraghy stated that Centamin paid EMRA $1.2m from profits during July.
hxxps://www.dostor.org/2317648

Today, Mr Youssef Elraghy stated that Centamin paid EMRA $4.8m from profits during August.
hxxps://www.alhuura.com/Akhbar-Msr/251865.html

So despite the POG going down, EMRA’s last payment was 4 times the one before, which reflects a healthy production.

Sorry I could not tell you anymore as it seems like the company is hiding a lot from the media these days

"Scandalous if true and creating a false market"

and I don't like to post what I hear from my chats for obvious reasons.

Indeed - don't blame em.

but believe me everything is good

Next set of figures would bear this out one hopes

[bor491] 19/9/2018 15:16

'Siko's post on LSE was also interesting re. August's EMRA payment being almost double that of June and July combined, indicating that projected profit was seriously up, so bodes well for profits September onwards.'

what'st the link so I can read the full post please?

[casual47] 19/9/2018 13:53

Another way to view the buffer is, it allows Centamin to use 100% of net cash flow to go towards dividend. The interim was 80% of H1 net cash. So the remaining 20% could be added to the final dividend together with 100% of H2.

My bet is that H2 net cash will be between 80-100 million, so you can see how you can easily get to a final dividend of 7.5-10 cents.

[casual47] 19/9/2018 13:20

From the latest site visit presentation slide:

H1 capex budget was $64m. Of that $51m is sustaining capital, ie. included in AISC figure so already deducted to arrive at net cash flow figure.

So growth capex that isn't sustaining is fairly small. So leaves quite a bit of the potential buffer from the "minimum $250-300m cash balance".

Dividend policy;
Minimum divi is 30% of free cash flow. Any further dividend is whatever is left after: (cash balance of 250-300m + growth capital)

The slide included this line as part of their plan for H2 2018 and beyond: "Deferral of non-critical sustaining capex items"

All this is telling me that the BOD are doing their utmost to make sure there will be a decent divi.

[charles clore] 19/9/2018 12:48

Over a pound I would a buyer be.

[casual47] 19/9/2018 12:44

It wouldn't be unusual for the Centamin BOD to have given the most conservative revised guidance which they expect to comfortably beat.

Siko's post on LSE was also interesting re. August's EMRA payment being almost double that of June and July combined, indicating that projected profit was seriously up, so bodes well for profits September onwards.

[fangorn2] 19/9/2018 12:43

Said tongue in cheek UKGeorge!
No, pretty sure I don't know you. :)

[casual47] 19/9/2018 12:30

It's reasonable to expect 2019 gold production to hit and exceed 580,000 oz pa, after all, this is what was forecast for this year and that forecast included (although as it turned out badly underestimated) the lower grade transitionary zone that ended up throwing the spanner in the works.

So with the transitionary zone removed in q3 that should make 2019 rather excellent. Higher grades should bring down costs to maybe below $700/oz AISC so plenty of profits even at gold prices of 1100$/oz.

With that in mind, you would think that with q4 data in hand the BOD should feel confident to allow for the maximum cash possible to be returned for the final 2018 dividend.

[astjgroom] 19/9/2018 12:16

I hope your right, you seem to have nailed it. there will be a divi... and the bigger the better...

[fenners66] 19/9/2018 12:08

I like the prospect of the dividend and they are getting more interesting again - however my point was that after quoting a very persuasive line up to " excess of US$250-300m" one must also bear in mind the caveat that the line does not end there....
"that is not required for growth projects." - could mean anything they want it too.

Still having $300m in the bank is a better position than most.

[casual47] 19/9/2018 11:36

For sure there will be a final dividend and for sure it will be more than 2.5 cents. (H2 is always more profitable than H1 even in years when there is no c0ck up in H1).

So even in the worst case there will be a total dividend of 5 cents. At the current shareprice of 95p that is a return of 5.26%, minimum. Still beats savings accounts and many other miners.....

[casual47] 19/9/2018 11:24

Fenners, my point is that they have a buffer to make up for a dip in profits due to their problems earlier this year, should they choose to. Their company policy explicitly allows for this.

Quite a luxury position to be in, no?

Compare this to miners without net cash of 300 million

Profit share goes to 45%. Centamin pays no tax as per agreement with the government (This was a 15 year agreement, which can be extended at the end of it)

[fenners66] 19/9/2018 11:20

"returning cash in excess of US$250-300m that is not required for growth projects."

But they have growth projects .... so at any moment that statement can become a lower dividend if they decide to invest....

Is the Govt profit share about to rise some more ?
In which case that free cash flow declines ?

[casual47] 19/9/2018 10:35

I expect total net cash for 2018 (excluding interim dividend) to be around $380-400m.

The reason why they say 250-300m is exactly to give themselves a buffer to play with.

At the top end, if they are stingy, they'll keep 300m cash and then total dividend would be $80-100m or 7-8.5 cents, so a final dividend of 4.5-6 cents.

If they recognise the need to maintain a stable dividend and listen to bulk of shareholders then they'll keep e.g. 250m cash and total dividend would be $130-150m or 11.25-13 cents, so a final dividend of 8.75-11.5 cents.

EDIT: adjusted total net cash to more reasonable 380-400 range.