Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[eeza] 11/9/2018 13:33

Bots slowly walking it down to 80p.

[jimbowen30] 11/9/2018 12:52

CC
CEY operates a top 20 global mine, so don't think you can compare with AAU. It's production is a fraction of CEY's and it's a mickey mouse company in comparison. HUM and AAZ are far better companies that AAU imo. You also have to consider the political risk of a mine in Turkey too.

[charles clore] 11/9/2018 11:46

casual - sorry, I thought you were making an open ended statement when you wrote about past performance.

[gotnorolex] 11/9/2018 11:29

“For six consecutive years the Russian Central Bank has been the largest purchaser of gold, increasing its holdings by 224 tonnes in 2017 and overtaking China to hold the fifth spot".
Putin's grand plan to ameliorate sanctions imposed on $ investments and accelerated after Crimea.

[casual47] 11/9/2018 11:16

CC -- if by "past" you mean before 2007 then I think you're taking the Mickey....

[charles clore] 11/9/2018 11:09

casual - 180p is only 2.1x the current price. AAU has been as high as 12p in the past. That's a whopping 9x current price. I know we are talking about chalk and cheese but I'm just pointing out the comparison of potential here. NAI.

[juju44] 11/9/2018 11:09

Forget Russia buying , wars , trade wars , EU right wing votes , etc. Its where crooked banks want the price

[astjgroom] 11/9/2018 11:03

Yes, I think so, Centamin have always been good at guidance, they dropped the ball this year, but there no reason to believe their near term guidance should be wrong. As always, we await the next update..,

[casual47] 11/9/2018 10:52

Charles Core, so what you are saying is, when the rebound comes, which it will, there's less scope of a bounce with AAU compared to CEY which has proven ability to go to 180p and beyond?

AAU: 2 yr high, 2.10. Current SP: 1.30. (1 yr high even worse: 1.59)
CEY: 2 yr high 184.96p. Current SP: 86p. (1 yr high 163p -- still nearly 100% gain)

[charles clore] 11/9/2018 10:49

AAU seems a much better bet than this and seems worthy of attention. Since April the CEY share price has almost halved, whereas AAU has remained at the same level. What a performer!

[casual47] 11/9/2018 10:37

What the analysts are waiting for is not q3, they already know that Centamin is in the transitioning zone, what they will want to hear is if revised production guidance is maintained (I think it will) and if there are any good pointers about the higher grade in q4 (again, should be the case) as this will point to production output scope for 2019 - which i expect to be really good.

[astjgroom] 11/9/2018 10:34

This is a long term play. Sure we're down, but who really believes the economies of the world are on a sure footing? Our loss, though painful is a paper loss only, must look further ahead. Q3 should deliver as advised, late in Q3 we were forecast to hit good product, that's this month.

[casual47] 11/9/2018 10:28

UKGeorge, he meant that Russia Central Bank has been ramping up its gold reserves, which it has.

[ukgeorge] 11/9/2018 10:26

"vastly increased its gold buying"

no it hasn't, they just buy local production and have been for a number of years.

[gotnorolex] 11/9/2018 10:23

Russia has vastly increased its gold buying, adding 26 tonnes to its reserves in July alone!

[ukgeorge] 11/9/2018 10:21

I don't believe it is Cey specific, HOC, FRES, POLY all are getting slaughtered.

Q3 may also be pretty poor, hinted at in the latest presentation.

I think this is gold specific and that it is likely going lower.

[sleveen] 11/9/2018 10:09

Whatever influences the POG, judging by CEY share price of late, there is clearly something not right operationally/financially with CEY that PIs haven't spotted.

IMHO.

[casual47] 11/9/2018 09:36

At no point in time has there ever been a gold miner who said "let's not work quite as hard, we have produced more than enough gold for this year, that'll do"

[shieldbug] 11/9/2018 09:35

Fenner - Equally over time the lowest cost mines have been and are being mined out. This tends to leave mines with lower grades and higher costs - the kind of mines that it is difficult to make big increases in yields without spending a lot of money - unlikely with continuing low price of gold.

[casual47] 11/9/2018 09:26

You can't compare with other miners.

Perhaps you have noted that what those other miners mine are called "commodities". It has a whole different demand-supply market.

E.g.
oil - there can (and has been) an oil glut - who will buy the excess oil?

Iron - if China isn't building, who will buy it?

Have you ever heard of a gold glut?

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 09:12

If anyone could be bothered they could see the production stats for the quoted miners in say 6 months time and see if there has been a response to the fall in gold price

[fenners66] 11/9/2018 09:09

Miners not just CEY hence the comparison with OPEC

When a commodity market falls you have choices - pack up and go home is one of them as already mentioned above.

No one is suggesting that is going to happen overnight either.

The alternative in commodity markets is to respond to the price fall by increasing production.
If you do nothing and with cost base rising and sales value falling you go bust or make far less money

You seem to be portraying yourself as the panic driven "there's nothing we can do type" just hoping things get better rather than doing something about it.

The Miners will do something about it - but a response to increase production could benefit those that can whilst further damaging the market price of gold and further damaging those that adopt your attitude.....

[casual47] 11/9/2018 08:57

Fenners, do you know how much "kit" costs? Even then, you can't just add a ball mill or a circuit - these things all hang together, e.g. increased tonnage means more trucks needed, more water needed etc. And again, they all depend on the mine plan which is based on geology. You can only mine as much ore as makes sense according to the mine plan.

Do you really think Centamin could just like that turn it to 11 to make up for the production issues earlier this year? Why do you think they lowered guidance and not just "did more stuff"?

Sorry, but I don't think you know what you're talking about