Centamin Share Discussion Threads

[football] 11/6/2018 10:51

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[juju44] 11/6/2018 10:37

Still challenging the double bottom but gold being taken down . We could get a surge in the dollar as Trump saves the world single handed and G7 wreck soon forgotten . this would hit gold . We will soon see

[ukgeorge] 08/6/2018 11:54

okay good I thought it was down to 50% but will be happily wrong

from q1

4. EMRA profit share
EMRA is entitled to a share of 50% of SGM’s net production surplus which can be defined as ‘revenue less payment of the fixed royalty to ARE and recoverable costs’. However, in accordance with the terms of the Concession Agreement, in the first and second years in which there is a profit share, PGM will be entitled to an additional 10% of net production surplus and an additional 5% in the third and fourth years.



Last years dividend was 12.5 cents US

In Q1 after profit share earnings were 3.17, Q2 is going to be worse. Lets say 14 cents for the full year if we are very lucky.

Can't see the dividend being maintained. But 2019 should see higher earnings

[phillis] 08/6/2018 11:53

CEY has a bag of not needed cash which it will use to smooth divi payments

[wallywoo] 08/6/2018 11:46

UKGeorge: they are getting 60% - 55% this year (the 40-45 is the percentage going to to Egypt gov't)

[juju44] 08/6/2018 11:33

You obviously cant read a chart - look at gold , top of page

[mammyoko] 08/6/2018 11:27

Dollar strength = gold weakness

[juju44] 08/6/2018 11:16

May low was 121.3p . I am getting nervous . wtf is going on with the miners

[ukgeorge] 08/6/2018 11:15

Total production cost has depreciation
AISC does not include depreciation and should be used
by commission on sales i assume you mean royalty rate
if they are getting only 40-45% this year profits will be more like $90M and dividend will be slashed massively.

Fingers crossed we get a bounce today. Otherwise its going to get even worse......

[jfishy55] 08/6/2018 10:53

"Centamin only get 50% of the gold now."

50% of the profits (profit share) not the actual gold (although there is also 3% commission on sale of gold).

"AISC of $880"

Should AISC be used? I'm not sure on this but I believe All In Sustaining Costs attempts to count money already spent for an overall measure, whereas we would be better off using Cash Cost Of Production for calculations?

EDIT: As wallywoo points out, 50% is to come, at the moment we are looking at lower profit share percentages.

[wallywoo] 08/6/2018 10:52

UK george
Actually its a bit more complicated than that:

The profit share is 40%-45% (Q3 and Q4) this year, and 45% for the next 2, 50% after that.

Q1 average price received was $1329, Q2 will be around $1300. I expect Q3 and Q4 to have both higher gold price and production (also with lower AISC)

So profit / cash generation will be loaded towards the 2nd half

[ukgeorge] 08/6/2018 10:38

Yes Fres getting hammered as well. despite gold and silver doing okay. Quite worrying.

[ukgeorge] 08/6/2018 10:38

Yes Fres getting hammered as well. despite gold and silver doing okay. Quite worrying.

[juju44] 08/6/2018 10:36

Amazing miner take down . Wouldn,t want this to fall any further

[ukgeorge] 08/6/2018 10:03

If you look at my post 26936 this is what I got from old guidance to new. Also note Centamin only get 50% of the gold now.

1300-825 = $475 * 290koz = $137.7M
1300-882.5 = $417.5 * 255koz = $106.4M


I haven't checked but I think they paid out about $140M last year

[wallywoo] 08/6/2018 09:25

ukgeorge: - "Divi will get cut"

a) Last year CEY produced 544K ounces at AISC of $790, and average sale price of $1261

b) This year will be around 510K at AISC of $880, and average sales price $1300+ (obviously uncertainty here)

I think on these figures cash generation / profits will be similar to last year (and so do most of the brokers reports). - or worst case 5-10% lower

On that basis, I would be surprised (unless more bad news coming on production / gold price) of a divi cut. In deed IMO with production and gold price very likely to be higher in Q3 and Q4, it may even be higher

[juju44] 08/6/2018 09:05

Miners being thumped again although metals improving . Hard to figure

[ukgeorge] 07/6/2018 15:59

I would think the dividend will get cut. But do agree and think this is a good time to buy. But q2 results are going to be bad and the bounce back has been pretty subdued so I think the rise may take some time.

[juju44] 07/6/2018 15:28

Yep , just a matter of patience . When the yank corruption machine decides to take the metals up this will fly

[wallywoo] 07/6/2018 15:15

Me to juju. With a safe 7% divi, no debt, future profits linked / aligned to the gold price, plenty of cash. There is nothing not to like about this IMO

[juju44] 07/6/2018 11:58

I have added some more

[master rsi] 07/6/2018 09:26

The LSE has experienced technical issues this morning which is the cause of the missing data. The markets will now open at 9 am.
-------------------

Intraday chart shows the spike UP after the opening at 9 am

[keyno] 06/6/2018 17:13

Whatever floats your boat, juju.

[juju44] 06/6/2018 16:47

Miners are the pits at the mo. Change will happen