Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[the analyst] 01/9/2010 12:32

The huge increase in PR releases over at CAH says to me they are actually building for an exit sooner, rather than later

I think that by this time next year, CAH will be sold, or will have gone public

[lyonst5] 01/9/2010 12:23

The directors of cellcast uk could redeem the failures of the past by keeping their fingers away from the sell button for now. Canaan VC bought into CAH for $5.25m, what would be their price now to sell ?
If they sold out first we could find a true market value, but i fear that CLTV will sell out first and at to low a price.

[the analyst] 01/9/2010 12:18

Yes, that really could be a huge winner

I wish that CAH would reverse into CLTV, including management. Ideally, the current management would purchase the UK business for a five or ten million, take it private and we become listed as CAH

[lyonst5] 01/9/2010 12:09

They/we could be onto a big winner with this TV format.

[the analyst] 01/9/2010 12:02

Some great finds there, lyonst5, cheers

The rate of expansion over there at CAH looks phenomenal.

I think it's good to see that CLTV have not yet sold down any of their stake in CAH. To me, this indicates that the UK business has been doing well of late, although I will need to see the results to back up that hope.

Results by the end of the month should be very interesting, I think - an update on CAH is pretty much nailed on, given the following statement in the finals:

"The Directors look forward to reporting more fully on current year
progress at the 2010 interim announcement stage"

[lyonst5] 01/9/2010 11:39

How about this.

"Bargain TV, which takes the group buying concept, currently a rage online, to television."



and

[simonparker5] 31/8/2010 12:47

lyonst5 if they were they seem to have been cleared now.

[lyonst5] 31/8/2010 10:07

From the recent weekness in the sp, could we assume that Headstart are selling their 1.5m shares, on friday alone near to 800k of buys went through against no sells as far as i could see.

[lyonst5] 29/8/2010 12:40

Well there seems to be a splurge of articles of late on the Indian side of things. With new formats and shows being added as we speak.

"The company now plans to air new shows based on relationships, matrimonial and dating and a group shopping format."


and


Head of Post Production at Cellcast, Akhilesh Sharma

"Also participating in the Pre Production of a Career based interactive programme "Call 4 Jobs"."


And more on CAH


I'd say they have got their foot on the throttle.

[burgerbarwomen] 27/8/2010 21:24

oh for gawd sake grow up will you

i briefly held these shares but no position at the moment

i really couldn't give a toss whether the share price is 2p or 8p as I won't make a buying decision until the next CAH update

i think 4p to 7p is a fair price for the cltv operations but can't see it spiking past this without an excellent CAH update.

[shaila0829] 27/8/2010 20:54

bb ; I have notice you being very negative abt CLTV and you are trying to scare ppl off for while and even sometimes, with wrong info ( see ur post below), ru a shareholder or trying to buy some by creating doom and gloom?


burgerbarwomen - 22 Jul'10 - 12:55 - 3194 of 3278

The interview is dated 28th March - the guy mentioned 17k calls a month.

Any chump with a calc can do the same maths I did.



RB1206 - 22 Jul'10 - 14:47 - 3204 of 3278

bbw : Its 17000 calls per night not per Month as in TA post 3189 from that article also here is below from same article, ESPECIALLY THE LAST LINE.


The makers
"Ten per cent of the total viewership is interested in interactive television," says Cellcast's executive vice president Pradeep Menon. On an average, at least one person wins one contest. On a good day, one show can have as many as four winners. The virtual waiting lounge, as Pradeep shows us at the Cellcast office, is a box-sized room buzzing with telephone lines. Currently, the holder capacity is 10,000. "We are increasing it because it's IPL season and we are introducing interactive cricket shows," he reveals. The channel sells air-time to Cellcast, the show's content provider, which in turn make its cut from cell phone companies who make a killing each time a caller uses his mobile phone to dial up. "We receive our share after 120 days because the revenue goes directly to the cell phone company. They take 50 to 60 per cent of the profit. We get the rest," Pradeep says. Only calls made from mobile phones are eligible, at the cost of Rs 12 a minute. At nearly 17,000 calls PER NIGHT, THE PROFIT MARGIN IS OBSCENE.

[burgerbarwomen] 27/8/2010 19:51

the cltv directors can only report on the cltv business... they're not responsible for cah reporting... cah are not a listed company so they're under no obligation to make public announcements

[sos100] 27/8/2010 19:45

During the first quarter of 2010, the UK operations continued to incur losses,
as in 2009, due to investments in capacity that the group believes will provide
future value. However, in April 2010, we began monetizing the Freeview capacity in which we have been investing. As a consequence the group's performance was positive during both April and May, a trend which we expect to continue throughout the remainder of 2010. Lastly, but significantly, CAH continues to perform well. The Directors look forward to reporting more fully on current year progress at the 2010 interim announcement stage.
Julian Paul


This from the finals only a few months back.

BBW,why all these negative assumptions....

[burgerbarwomen] 27/8/2010 10:54

simonparker

please be aware that cah are under no obligation to issue a cah update being a private company

if trading has eased off, they may keep quiet

so an update is what all shareholders and watchers want but it's not guaranteed

[simonparker5] 26/8/2010 10:29

Thanks lyonst5 I hadn't seen that before.
Just a little over a month until we get the interims and an update on CAH.

[lyonst5] 23/8/2010 19:10

I guess this has been posted before but it does make good reading.

CAH CEO Pankaj Thakar

[the analyst] 22/8/2010 09:58

Cheers Lyon, good stuff.

One thing to take into account is seasonality - mainly due to the IPL, which was played between 12 March and 25 April 2010 and negatively affected earnings.

If we do see growth for Jan-June 10 despite the IPL, then we know for sure that things are progressing very well. July-Dec should be even better, being the stronger period, but we have to wait for next June for those results. Maybe that will be the time they start to look for an exit?

As you say, we should see growth due to mobile penetration, but also due to new language formats, improved efficiency, better deals with mobile providers, increased penetration of television, Indian still being a growth economy despite the global downturn etc.

[lyonst5] 22/8/2010 09:44

TA, There seems very little info out there on CME, so has long as it is not making a loss for us im good with it. If it could be developed into another CAH with no more investment from the UK side even better.

Had another look at the CAH numbers again,

Jan-June 08 -£179k
Jan-Dec 08 -£342k
Jan-Feb 09 -£47k
Jan-June 09 -£15k
Jan-Dec 09 £451k

The growth started to really move from mid 09, to go slowly from -£47k in Feb to -£15k in june and then onto £451k at year end, the month on month compound growth must be running at least at 30% on average.
What we dont know yet is how the start of this year went for a few more weeks until the interims. But from comments made by the CEO Pankaj Thakar point to continuing strong growth.
So looking at it this way if no further growth happened in H110 we would have to contend ourselfs with another profit of +-£500k or about £1m for the year to date.So £1m profit on a £4m Mcap and a PE of 4.
Also we can not forget that we are also getting swept along also by TV and mobile penetration that are growing at about 30% a year in India, it may be even somewhat difficult not to grow in this rapidly growing market.

So in a few weeks we shall see, and also did they say the UK side of things became profitable in the spring of this year, now that would put the icing on the cake.

[the analyst] 21/8/2010 19:20

Wonder what the value of Cellcast's 18% holding in Middle East is and if they are still expanding in that region?


"Cellcast Middle East ("CME") continued to offer premium telephony billing services to regional broadcasters and maintains a network of direct agreements with multiple GSM operators across the region covering Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Bahrain, Yemen, Kuwait and Iraq plus via strategic partners in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia.

In 2009 CME increased its regional coverage through new direct agreements with Wataniya Palestine and Vodafone Qatar. CME managed premium SMS solutions and on-screen interactive features for the original live interactive game show "Wanted", as well as for the well-known formats "Deal or No Deal" and "Studio Fan".

In addition to its original business of providing SMS services to regional broadcasters, CME is leveraging its network to provide billing solutions to internet companies focussed primarily on online games, a sector enjoying strong growth in the region. CME has also recently diversified into mobile marketing, implementing campaigns for major international brands such as L'Oreal and Nokia.

CME has value beyond Cellcast UK's minority 18% stake in the business as it provides us with preferential access to a network of billing agreements which can support the regional satellite TV broadcasting initiatives under consideration."

[lyonst5] 17/8/2010 20:24

That was a bit of a sharp move today. So about 5-6 weeks until the interim results when we should see how UK opps and more importantly how CAH is progressing.

[topgunns] 13/8/2010 15:50

Boring few weeks. Nice link trixster. Base for ongoing leg up i presume.

[simonparker5] 12/8/2010 13:27

Thanks for the links TA, your posts are like buses! :)

[the analyst] 12/8/2010 13:09

Cellcast India site has been updated, looking very nice, imo