Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[watchout2] 28/7/2010 19:54

Agree lyonst, total shake just before the close, i had a quick check
and you could sell size way above that 5.25p, maybe they are fishing
after all that buying.

I'm sure the next Cah update will see a new recent high, the last one
saw it touch 7.25p bid, but when they intend to release one is still
a mystery, but H1 is over so it could be anytime.

Guy Thomas seems to be a value investor.

[lyonst5] 28/7/2010 17:23

Well i just opened up the screen before the market closed to see the tick down and still no volume available to buy online, i'd say the MM's are in a pickle.

Also been looking more at Canaan Partners involment in CAH. These guys really know thier onions, they have a seat in the board room at CAH and are hands on in their investment bringing in their know how and connections to the business.

Article from last year.


Also i believe that with the fast growth of CAH, we will see more articles and snippets of news of their progress that will start to be thrown off inadvertently in the press and the web.

[watchout2] 28/7/2010 14:35

O/T slightly.

Guy Thomas has just turned up on the Sft register holding a chunk.

Got to be the same one as here ?

[the analyst] 28/7/2010 12:58

They try to protect themselves when they don't want to sell any stock, so they reduce online limits. They can do this online, but are obliged to offer the 50k if you contact them directly. So, if you phone them, you will still get the 50k size

That said, sometimes they will be sneaky, put you on hold, then move the price up a little and tell you "the market just changed, would you like your 50k at the new price?"

Obviously, there appears to be a lot of demand for the shares right now, so this is what they are doing to try to put people off buying at these levels.

I'm sure the limits could change pretty quickly if a few people decide to off-load a few million!

[lyonst5] 28/7/2010 12:17

I've just noted that the NMS is 50k, so what the heck are the MM's on by only offering 1k, could it be be a shortage of stock perhaps.

Edit, Normal market size (NMS) is the minimum number of securities, as specified by the London Stock Exchange, for which a market maker is obliged to quote firm bid and offer prices.

[simonparker5] 28/7/2010 11:28

Can't even buy 10K online now. Tick up due.

[watchout2] 28/7/2010 10:49

150k bought today, 80k on plus and 70k on ord.

Surprised they have that stock around, dont think Headstart are selling
ahead of their stock allowance.

Can sell 150k at 5.7p or buy 50k at 5.95p so i think they are still short.

[watchout2] 26/7/2010 14:51

Not guilty this time, i'm not selling any.

Just so confident that a cracking Cah update is coming and the headstart
phone line will be jammed with people trying to get size.

[simonparker5] 26/7/2010 14:15

No stock available, can't even buy 10K. Someone is picking up the last few at 6p and having to do it in 5K bacthes.

My take on headstart is one of three scenarios
1. They have a buyer for these already lined up. We know some on this board have mentioned they would like to get their hands on this sort of quantity and perhaps there are others.
2. They are positioning themselves for news soon to come.
3. They have seen the rise and thought now is a good time to excercise the warrants as they should be able to sell into strength. Slightly different to point one as it assumes they don't have a buyer yet.

You can bet that they havn't excercised these to keep them, they always sell. However I don't see this as a negative, afterall isn't this the reason why we all bought in the first place?
Good luck

[the analyst] 26/7/2010 10:55

Hopefully the shares will provide some much-needed liquidity to the market, but I suspect they may already have a buyer lined-up for them

[watchout2] 26/7/2010 08:31

Kiop.

This is probably the only chance now to get size, if you can get in touch
with headstart before the stock hits the market they will probably sell
the whole lot to you.

[lyonst5] 26/7/2010 08:29

BBW, Well i think the MM's should be on the phone to Headstart chaps ASAP, as there is only 10k on the offer.

[nickcduk] 26/7/2010 08:28

Headstart are an overhang. Whenever they see the shares move higher they exercise and then dump the stock on the market. Not a welcome sign.

[burgerbarwomen] 26/7/2010 08:22

phil


Headstart don't hold, they will dump... the RNS indirectly states the last lot were sold.

[philjeans] 26/7/2010 08:10

Good to see Headstart taking up their warrants; the first time they have actually INVESTED in this business, as opposed to lending it money!

They also can see the latent potential here.

[burgerbarwomen] 25/7/2010 19:57

davydoo


My view is that most viewers will be happy with the old five knuckle shuffle for free.... hence my negative opinion of the UK opps.

[simonparker5] 25/7/2010 19:31

There have been many posts on here recently regarding when CLTV might sell off part of their CAH holding and what value they might get for it. I have been thinking, what if they were to float CAH on the indian stock exchange? As has been discussed if a valution of 30x earnings was acheived this could be one way that CLTV might be able to realise the huge value of CAH. Only a thought.
Good luck all.

[the analyst] 24/7/2010 14:54

I really like the first paragraph in that article, I hadn't thought about the fact that TV penetration was another relevant growth metric.

For some reason I had presumed they all had TV sets in India. Doh...

The projected in 600m increase in mobile subscribers over todays number is just phenomenal, no wonder they are expecting such high growth going forward

"The number of TV owning homes has come a long way, 300 million TV Viewers have been accounted for so far and it would be 548 million by 2012. The cable operators have penetration of 64 percent in 2007 and will climb to 82 percent by 2012. By 2014, India's population is expected to be 1.26 billion, with mobile penetration of 1.01 billion the mobile teledensity would be 80percent above. The fact that India will add more than 600 million new subscribers must rate as the biggest subscriber adds for any country in the world."

[the analyst] 24/7/2010 14:52

Hi watchout2,

I'm pretty sure margins will increase, but I have no idea where they could jump to. One debate we were having was as to whether 1) the cut that goes to the mobile telecoms companies is included in the figures, or 2) whether it has already been taken by the time it goes to Cellcast.

I think we cam to the conclusion that the later was the most likely scenario, given the size of the margins

Cellcast have stated that most of the costs are fixed, which is promising. So, maybe $10m profit on $25m revenue is possible? That would mean margins rising from 23% to 40%

[watchout2] 24/7/2010 13:17

Has anybody been able to work out the CAH margins then on another explosion
in growth.

What i mean is they made $2 mil profits on $8 mil turnover, if they did
indeed get turnover to $24 mil would profits be still around the same
margins ($6mil) or would they jump because there is smaller or no more administration costs needed to accommodate the jump in turnover ?

Still looks to me like their stake in Cah is going to make profits quite
close to half the market cap of Cellcast, i reckon on $25-30 mil turnover
Cah will make $10 mil profit, sure the profit margins will increase on
more turnover

[the analyst] 24/7/2010 13:08

Nice find, lyonst5 - no, I don't think it had been posted before

[lyonst5] 24/7/2010 12:54

Not sure if this has been posted before.




" Indeed Cellcast has demonstrated an impressive growth year ahead of them where the plan is to triple their present revenues. "

[davydoo] 23/7/2010 22:29

just seen PLUS where a buy went through at 5.95 after watchout2 and I both got around 5.5 earlier in the day.