Cellcast Share Discussion Threads

[burgerbarwomen] 10/7/2010 09:38

sage


The management have already indicated they expect to make a FY loss, due to the stated intention to sell down the stake in CAH

Always amazes me when a company even tells people what the trading position will be but still they refuse to believe it.

Loss in Q1... ebitda positive in Q2... with this business you won't get exponential growth from the UK... your customer base is your customer base... don't forget the churn! The TV gaming firms have the same problem.

[thesageofsaint] 10/7/2010 09:30

The results published last month, provided a deal of evidence that should stoke expectations for the next year and beyond. There were numerous references and numerated illustrations of cost reduction, recurring statements on revencue growth (substantial, significant...) and mamangement of G&A.

If you do some simple sums using realistic cost expectations (from 0.9 current to a most optimistic 0.8 for future) and also some realistic expectations on reveneue (18m to 22m) and with stable G&A and A&D (total 1.7m), you can form a view on the range of this year's posible outcomes for the UK. I have summarised below:


costs 0.9 0.85 0.8
revenue
18000 100 1000 1900
20000 300 1300 2300
22000 500 1600 2700


From the worst case (18m rev, current margin) to best (22m rev, 0.8 cost)then you generate a range of pre tax profits from 100k to 2.7m. The results in Sep will shed more light.

[the analyst] 09/7/2010 17:03

Well, I think that Cellcast Asia will be one of those five companies, but are they nearer to the $15m or the $50m in revenue rate?

[davydoo] 09/7/2010 12:39

thanks for breaking it down theanalyst, very helpful.

[the analyst] 09/7/2010 12:23

Revenue share from mobile operators is a big challenge:

"The other challenge is to get a decent revenue share from the mobile operators as they still keep the largest share thus limiting the other value chain partner's growth by not incentivizing their effort enough. The operators in India will have to accept the international revenue share best practices and give away a large chunk of the revenue generated to the content providers."

[the analyst] 09/7/2010 12:22

Looking to expand into new countries, too

"As of now, we're focusing on India. In future we plan to expand in other Asian countries."

My guess is that the decision to expand into new countries could mark the point at which they decide to exit. It could be the 'carrot' needed of potential rapid growth that investors would be looking for - i.e they have already succeeded in India, are profitable, still growing, but there is much more to come

[the analyst] 09/7/2010 12:19

A couple more:

" Our focus has been on television programming, but we're now looking towards other mediums like the Web and print publications to expand the playing field."

"Our technology stands on a robust SMS and IVR platform that is operator agnostic and is capable of handling over 8000 calls from multiple mobile operators every second!"

"Although buying airtime is expensive, it works well for us as we have complete creative freedom and it works well for the channels too. As a result, we've grown from 1 show to around 8 hours of live programming every day on different channels."

[the analyst] 09/7/2010 12:19

Just a few soundbites from the interview that I found interesting, for those that don;t read the whole thing:

"We have successfully executed this unique business model in India and are experiencing rapid revenue growth. A prime example is our show Bid2Win, which received 30 million responses from 2.5 million individuals within span of one year"

"Cellcast's recently launched property Insomnia – Sona Mana Hai is steadily making a mark for itself through its intriguing content."

[the analyst] 09/7/2010 12:11

Couple of interesting sites...

1) Canaan looking to invest $100m more in India, but it seems there is no exit for Cellcast Asia on the cards yet:




2) New interview with Pankaj Thakar, Chief Executive Officer, MD, Cellcast Interactive India:

[the analyst] 05/7/2010 22:53

Not quite sure,

I think it may have been the Directors at LNG that were saying he was a forced seller due to the credit crunch (too much gearing on spreadbets, or something like that?), but that's just a vague memory and so might not be the case

Daviddosh might know more about it all, as he's pretty clued-up about the events over at LNG...

[watchout2] 05/7/2010 22:36

Remind me, is it Lng that is forcing him to sell off his entire holding ?

[the analyst] 05/7/2010 22:33

Cheers watchout,

If it's not for you right now, contacting NC directly to acquire a stake at a decent price might might appeal to other lurkers out there...

[watchout2] 05/7/2010 22:31

TA.

I would love to say i could afford 500k but i simply dont have the funds,
it would eat up my trading pot and more and i'm making a killing trading
oil stocks while my long term stocks are suffering badly except for Dcd
who perked up so i'd rather stick with maybe another 100k and keep trading
away while things are so volatile which is perfect in the oil sector, i've
have to me large holdings already in Rgt, Spmg and Dcd so as i say cannot
really afford to go in big here.

[the analyst] 05/7/2010 22:26

It might be worth contacting Neil Craven, if you are looking to buy 500k+

He might be happy to sell to private investors at mid-price, given he was selling to Directors at 3.5p (the bid) on that last 1.5m tranche

[watchout2] 05/7/2010 22:17

If you do the rough sums about Craven's holding :

He started the year with 15.2 million.

He started to sell in March and made his first announcement in mid March
to drop between 12-13 mil.

So in three and a half months he's dropped over 10 million shares or two
thirds of his stake so based on that you are looking at a month to clear
a massive seller, cut that by another week or so when punters pile in
when he drops below 3% anticipating a overhang clearing bounce.

Bought a small amount to get back in today, wanted a lot more but all they
would quote at 4p was the NMS, just love a bombed out overhang play like
Dcd, Spmg, they all come good in the end.

Of course the Ceo buying so many is also hinting that business is going
well, will look to add on any weakness if any of that Craven stock is
placed with a mm but doubt it will.

[lufc5] 05/7/2010 19:00

.......DOO DI DOO.....In my beautiful balloon.....DUP DI DUP DI.....

[trixter] 05/7/2010 18:55

...and once Craven is out of the picture and the overhang cleared where might the share price go?

[the analyst] 05/7/2010 16:55

Big update to the Cellcast Asia website:

[the analyst] 05/7/2010 16:37

That's the conclusion I had come to, MPM - I'm guessing that she is no longer considered to be part of the concert party.

[metaphysicalman] 05/7/2010 16:35

Very interesting. Taking BF and AW alone they stay under 30% - the total share numbers have changed since Nov 2007 which is why they can buy more.

But if you add in EG then it tips over 30% I think... so either she is no longer part of the concert party, or we are going to get an announcement soon... (or I have my maths wrong)

[nickcduk] 05/7/2010 16:13

Craven looks like a busted flush. Those LNG losses must have done serious damage to his wealth.