Cavendish Financial Share Discussion Threads

[spob] 27/11/2024 03:08

.
The only true shareholders here are the directors/employees.

The rest are suckers to be taken for a ride.


Anyone who followed Cenkos over the years will know how the system works here.

[boonkoh] 14/11/2024 08:57

The proposed Pisces might be an interesting new revenue for Cavendish...

[disc0dave46] 13/11/2024 14:00

Just had a very nice message from my bestie."SHUT THE F&&K UP"Have blanked out the profanity as not to upset folks but you get the picture!.

[disc0dave46] 13/11/2024 13:20

Strange, my bestie has edited all his postings here and deleted all their contents, well apart from the tantrum this morning.And I was so upset that he'd filtered me.....NOT. Wouldn't trust a single word this person posts up, definitely DYOR!. Clearly he also believes that his posts were complete BS.

[disc0dave46] 13/11/2024 10:52

Tatton Asset Management (TAM) put CAV to shame!
Their H1 share based payments only £843k, a mere 10% of their profit!. CAV 89%, says it all really IMO.

[quepassa] 13/11/2024 09:48

ken

GFY

[disc0dave46] 12/11/2024 14:05

fennersYes agree re NI. I used the median salary costing £900 per employee (as per the IFS), but they will be above the median as your analysis points out.Every business will be hit by the NI increase, some here believe CAV won't be!, unbelievable.

[fenners66] 12/11/2024 13:31

disc0 an analysis of the staff costs and numbers (197) would roughly give us over £100k each

We could subtract the current NI and a bit for pensions and they would likely come in at about an average of £95k each.
Of course by the time the new NI rate kicks in they would likely have had some massive pay rise by then ,
but lets say they don't (for now ).

That means each employee would cost on average £1647 more per year in NI

That adds up to an extra £324 k next tax year.

So the half year £52k doubled to £104k turns into a £220k loss , before their pay rises...

Given the wages flex with turnover and they have gotten rid of excess admin costs already the margin of 0.18% could be fair going forwards so in order to stay at £52k profit they would have to increase turnover by
£172m in tax year 25-26 just to stay the same......

BUT they could still pay the dividends out of the cash they bought from Cenkos....

Ok so keeping the margin at 0.18% is a little extreme but we do know that the current break even level already had an employee cost reduction from the last half year of over £5m and will flex up with revenue.

Given they are happy at break even this half year , what's to stop them staying at that level in the future ?

[kenmitch] 12/11/2024 13:27

discOdave

I agree with your comments about Que Passa as posters with closed minds unwilling to see both sides of the investment case are best ignored, and even more so if they then claim to filter posters they don’t agree with. Don’t they realise there’s a plus and minus case for every share?

BUT otherwise I agree with Q P that there seems to be over emphasis on the high employee costs and Director greed. The better the team (and we have to hope the “talent” they are taking on are high quality) the more likely they are to help win a lot of new business for Cavendish.

If Cavendish optimism,as in the OUTLOOK section, proves justified, then profits and cash will flow in and dividends will increase rapidly too. This is what happened when I held Cenkos. That scenario could easily see the share price rise rapidly. After all the market cap is only around £45 million.Markets look ahead and I’m looking ahead to that hopefully happening and not back at what has happened, is well known to the Market, and so now priced in.

[disc0dave46] 12/11/2024 10:26

From the CityAm article:"After pruning £7m of residual costs from its merger, including job cuts, Cavendish has grown its headcount by roughly 40 to reach 197 and booked £18.3m in employee costs over the six months – up 64 per cent from a year earlier."What £7m cost saving!. Is that their £7m on an annualised basis BS?.

[disc0dave46] 12/11/2024 10:22

Thanks for the link, it works better though if you use Https instead, but will read and digest.Returns to profit - £52k!, wow some profit that on £27.7m income. Rev flat for H2 but staffing costs will be increasing as they keep taking on more highly paid talent, then there's their share based payments.A business set up for the benefit of its BoD and staff IMO.For those looking in - post 161 originally tried to fool everyone by stating that the report by Graham Neary of Stockopedia had the headline "Cavendish looks stunning value at 12p to buy". Which was completely untrue, it was a readers comment. Caught out and hastily corrected. That's how desperate this person is, beware!.

[disc0dave46] 12/11/2024 09:09

Rev flat and H2 will be 20% down compared to H2 last year.Pbt £52k on £27.7m Rev a margin of 0.18%, share based payments and increased staff costs will continue to leave the business at virtually breakeven IMO.Your postings mirror CAV's reporting style, full of BS.

[disc0dave46] 11/11/2024 17:20

The Institute for Fiscal Studies - The increases in employer National Insurance means that employers will have to pay an additional £900 for each employee on median average earnings:Https://ifs.org.uk/data-items/increase-employer-national-insurance-contributions-employee-earnings-2025-26#:~:text=Increase%20in%20employer%20National%20Insurance%20contributions%20by%20employee%20earnings%2C%202025%E2%80%9326,-Published%20on%2030&text=The%20increases%20in%20employer%20National,employee%20on%20median%20average%20earnings.

[disc0dave46] 11/11/2024 17:14

CostiAgree.Their non employee savings were wiped out by staff costs which isn't going to reduce going forwards. Not with higher NI costs (estimates are that this will cost an extra £900 per employee on median average earnings), say £180k minimum for CAV, which will obliterate their reportable pbt when it kicks in in April 2025.

[costi_1672] 11/11/2024 16:21

The adjusted numbers look good, with a £1.85m H1 adj PBT. The only problem is that management have taken near all of it for themselves, resulting in a miserable £52k statutory PBT! So once again investors are bound to ask for whose benefit does this company operate? It's clearly the Directors and staff, not external shareholders. Hopefully that might change if profits continue rising, with a more reasonable distribution in future.

[costi_1672] 11/11/2024 14:21

The share based payments charge is a red flag here. Any SBP charge that exceed 10% of FCF is too much and Cavendish Financial (LON:CAV) is just a company for the benefit of its employees and directors. Year after year you will be diluted here. Shouldn't be listed really

[fenners66] 11/11/2024 12:36

Going back to the "share-based payments of £1,579k " that they want us to ignore.

That was the first half. If matched second half that is over £3.1m approx.
If you approx look at shares at 10p that is 31m shares

I am assuming the reason for ignoring them is that they cost no cash , ie, are New shares

that is 31/ 385m shares in issue according to ADVFN
so potential issue of 8% in a year, with more to follow....

I suggest that is foretelling massive dilution and still break even.

[fenners66] 11/11/2024 12:31

kenmitch - "possibly coming their way soon" - agreed there are times of boom and bust in capital markets
but then you would have to be looking outside of the company and seeing whether there is going to be a period of growth say in the economy which would lead to more companies getting a fund raising away.

However they are saying its not this year, so far it isn't and if they really thought the future was that bright given all the rest of the window dressing ,I'm sure they would have said so.

The revenue grew massively last year and they lost a packet.
Its declined from the second half last year and they have broken even.
The directors have lots of shares and there is cash to pay themselves amongst others a dividend , the staff get well renumerated.

It looks so far as if the city spivs will do well out of the merger , but anyone else?

[kenmitch] 11/11/2024 12:24

fenners.

Yes I hadn’t picked up that point you had highlighted, and like you I dislike the window dressing and hiding of key information. But that doesn’t negate the big plus case which is a lot more business possibly coming their way and soon. That’s with the proviso of no unexpected shocks (like covid did) hitting stock markets.

Perhaps I’m too influenced by the big dividends and share price gains I got from Cenkos in past bull runs. They too window dressed at times. Key point is markets looking ahead and not back.I’ll be keeping a close eye on their website for news of new business won.

[disc0dave46] 11/11/2024 12:11

QPCaught with trousers down and now changed your posting.Wow how desperate are you!.