Cavendish Financial Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 07/10/2024 09:11

Just checked to see when the dividend is payable - to see whether that has already come out of the cash at 30-9-24.

It has not.

Payable 15-10-24 will amount to about £964k, so that cannot be a reason for the cash fall in the last 6 months.

[fenners66] 07/10/2024 07:28

One other relevant point

If you take our the "non-recurring" costs from the half year to 31-Mar they also made a "profit" then.

It would have been £374k on £34.7m revenue.

[fenners66] 07/10/2024 07:18

The only other "clue" in there is the use of the word "uncertainty" when discussing the outlook.

[fenners66] 07/10/2024 07:10

Well without giving a figure it can be whatever you imagine.
I suspect it is a "small" profit. For the reasons previously discussed.

They do give 2 other figures - compared to the first half *like for like of last year.

Not compared to the second half - which they did not split out of the recent full year results.

The reason I surmise is :

Revenue is down £7.2m vs last half year, so profit has come from reduced labour costs

Cash is down £3.54 m from 31-3-24
So they make a comparison to a time before they bought all that cash from Cenkos

I find that comment shall we say - unhelpful.

Those 2 comparators seem more like window dressing to me , deliberately missing off the comparison to the previous 6 months. They may try and justify - like a toy shop does - that most of their sales come around a certain part of the year - but say so if that is the case - however I imagine bringing shares to market happens all year round.

Nothing else in the trading statement so will have to see when they produce the accounts.

[aishah] 07/10/2024 07:03

Added at the open. Mkt cap only £37m against a big cash pile and profitable now.

[boonkoh] 07/10/2024 06:38

A relief that H1 was profitable, given the share price plunge recently. Good to see that they have managed to rightsize their operations to still survive and thrive in this low activity environment.But would it have hurt them to reveal a range for the profit number?FWIW the share price probably now has baked in the worse of what could come out of the Budget. But don't forget, a positive surprise could come out to, wrt small companies and growth companies. After all Starmer and Reeves are pro-growth and could provide some rabbits out of the hat...(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[fenners66] 26/9/2024 17:10

Well looks like the "market" does not grasp this sector either then.

We'll all see come the next published accounts ....

[fenners66] 20/9/2024 15:50

But how could you possibly know
"there is a lot more going on behind the scenes which are confidential transactions."?

[fenners66] 20/9/2024 14:03

QP - you do realise that a standstill rate of revenue is £5.78m a month , every month ?

[boonkoh] 18/9/2024 09:44

I disagree. The next results will show the benefits of their cost stripping. And if they were smart, they'd put pressure on discretionary renumeration to generate a good profit level.Cavendish can be a money printer, even at the current cyclical low of activity. They just need to rightsize the cost base.Those workers aren't going anywhere, the job market is soft everywhere. Time to start paying less bonuses and not fear a mass staff exodus.(I hold in the Boon Fund)

[its the oxman] 18/9/2024 09:36

Guess this got sold off on failure of market conditions to improve significantly meaning don't expect much from the next results.

[disc0dave46] 11/9/2024 09:29

Thanks fennersI thought I'd interpreted it correctly and apologies to you for not grasping what you were saying to clarify things. As you say it's quite sneaky of them to report it that way.Still think though that FY25 could be circa £4m profit being optimistic (pro forma Rev FY24 was £54m, assuming 5% growth and circa 7% margin). Likewise it could be a lot less.Will keep on watch list for now.

[disc0dave46] 11/9/2024 01:50

fenners
I’d assumed there was going to be £3.5m savings for H1 FY24, but seems I was wrong. So over estimated FY25 profit by that amount.

[fenners66] 10/9/2024 20:21

disc0 - I don't know how to explain "annualised" any better

Let me try again

This time lets use an increase rather than a saving...

You have a Broadband contract and in July they increase it by £3 a month
By the end of that year its cost you 6x3 = 18 more
But that was all in the second half of the year

The "annualised" cost is 2 x £18 so £36

But since there was only half a year left in that year when they added the cost - the second half of that annualised cost goes into next year..

BUT the crucial point is the first half of the next year costs you exactly the same as the second half of the first year.

There is NO difference between the two halves.

And so to CAV the first half of 2025 would be the same (from a cost saving pov) as the second half of 2024
And they made £374k

So either they find NEW cost savings - and they say in the accounts there may be some small savings or they have to massively raise the revenue - but they already did that and your broker note has revenue declining.

My number for revenue is not £69m - that is just 2x second half of 2024 - have they / are they going to be that busy ?

[disc0dave46] 10/9/2024 20:07

FY24 H2 Rev £34.5m, net loss £2.3m.
With FY25 revenue say £57m to your £69m (taking the median £63m) and saving £3.5m in H1 why would profits be so low as you suggest?.
Even ignoring the £3.5m savings, the minimum pat margin pre merger attained was 7.7% (normally around 17%), that’s £4.8m on revenue of £63m (£8.3m when you include the H1 £3.5m saving).