Caspian Sunrise Share Discussion Threads

[berber1] 06/11/2017 13:38

It is time for a fresh blood in the company, A new enthusiast CEO, will market casp as a new Tengiz and bring in an experienced company as jv/ farmee to carry out the drilling of the deep wells more aggressively, and push the price sharply higher. The current CEO should be moved to non exec chairman position. From videos , he looks as if he is very relaxed with how things are going well in his comfort zone. Why should he want any chances to a very comfortable life, financed by the desperate share holders.

[konil] 06/11/2017 13:34

looks like the sellers are willing to take a lower and lower price. casp better release some good news soon, else we'll be back at 8p.

[steveh8] 06/11/2017 13:01

Thanks for the feedback gents all views are appreciated

[davidblack] 06/11/2017 12:14

HD Caspian is a very clear example of “Randwashing”, the way to move your assets outside your home country just in case the politics gets nasty.

Best example of this was South African Brewery post the election of Mandela. And didn’t that turn out to be a good call? Just look at how the Rand collapsed since with Mandela’s heirs turning the place into a mess.

[davidblack] 06/11/2017 12:04

Also it’s worth remembering this company has 1,669 million shares in issue, someone selling just 1% has 16.7m shares to sell and liquidity here is ok but not so you could sell a million a day.

[hiddendepths] 06/11/2017 11:22

Now why would Kazakh holders be selling some of their shares in London for pounds sterling after a 50% rise? I think I can work that one out! In that sense Eastern Europe is the new South Africa.

[davidblack] 06/11/2017 10:17

Steve there is no suggestion of a takeover. What CC said was if the next two deep wells come in, the additional shallows, production rockets and we are receiving world prices then there might be some interest from bigger oil companies.

Anyway with four people “Owning” the company it will not be sold until they are happy with the price and my guess is they are looking for billions not just hundreds of millions.

As for why there is selling, as I understand it that has always been an issue and without any institutions the marginal price is set by the last seller looking to sell £1000 of stock. Good results will fix that over time.

[konil] 06/11/2017 10:01

steve, i think we're all struggling to understand that!

toggle has a suggestion that it might be brokers 'helping' kaz holders who are unknowing in the ways of the markets to sell their holdings to drum up business for themselves, on the back of the recent rise.

toggle's estimate is that they may be a quarter of the way through such holdings.

the situation may change very quickly if the market starts to believe the potential here. years of under delivery has left even believers somewhat jaded, so its not surprising initial interest in the a5 flow news petered out relatively quickly. after all it wasn't final confirmation that a deep has come good.

there is so much news due in the next 6 months, at least that's the expectation that cc has created, that sooner rather than later the selling could well dry up.

i'm just hoping casp dont have any hidden agenda here re. fund raising or trying to grab more of the company away from the small pi. so far they appear to have played it straight.

[togglebrush] 06/11/2017 06:27

Bonfire night and expectations for CASP Sky rocketed upwards. I hope they don't come down as fast !!!

[steveh8] 05/11/2017 22:04

Should have maybe expanded on my thought process to my question above. Just can't get my head round why anyone would sell at this point when A5 flow test is imminent (roxy/casp imminent that is). Have seen the share price suppressed when placing are on the cards but not on possible takeover.

[steveh8] 05/11/2017 21:52

Just throwing it out there, was thinking that the current selling which is suppressing the share price could possibly be connected to a bid. Clive has mentioned M&A a few times recently. Has anyone experienced this on any other shares they have held?

[konil] 05/11/2017 20:14

as stated previously, imo $3bn is not overstating the case if they prove c.300mmboe. they will also have the production revenues which will be throwing off lots of free cashflow.
this could come in 12 months with some luck at the deeps.

[xclusive2] 05/11/2017 20:04

One of the LSE posters estimates that Casper will be a £billion m/cap in 4/5 years ! I'm hoping for the same result in 4 to 5 months ! We won't be here in 4 years.

[xclusive2] 05/11/2017 15:55

If the right approach was made, as stated in the interview, they'll entertain the discussion and everybody has a price. Thus won't happen until they've proved up the current deeps imo

[berber1] 05/11/2017 15:07

Now that they are getting a5 to flow, does anyone think, the Chinese JV may decide to take us over? the CEO has been good at selling parts of the company as they became interesting. Thanks.

[xclusive2] 05/11/2017 12:59

Just listening to the last 2 CC interviews as only scanned them initially. A little bit of Carverspeak too .Key points -;- A5 90 day flow test commencement- Sidetrack success can be applied at 801 and A6- Oil sales moved from $16 to c $20- Debt/equity funding not ruled out to accelerate plans if needed and to cover infrastructure costs- M&A statementsAs usual or Clive can give mixed messages and if you listen to the first LSE interview you would think that A6 and 801are close to flowing yet if you read the deep updates from the interim statements you will see what the plan was -;801 - rig fromA5 to remove stuck pipes nad to flow from open hole. Good news that we will get oil production revenue but bad news, can't book reserves as unable to flow testA6 - Need to re-complete well to close gaps in casing before re-perforation attempt but need pipes from 801 to do this.Now in the Core Finance interview he states that they could use the same sidetrack technique used at A5 for A6 and 801 ?I'm not sure what the exact plan is as the communication is not consistent but I'm probably being a little picky as the plans are changing as the situation is a fluid one.I'm also hoping his gulp when talking about A5flow test was unintentional !Carverspeak aside, the opportunity is there for us all to see. I personally believe that they will perform a sidetrack on 801 as they'll want to book reserves and I think it's crazy not to do this. This will probably mean that A6 will delay as they are using funds from oil revenues to fund A8. The M&A statement is interesting and you can see what the game is and this could happen much sooner than I thought, especially if A6 and 801 flow.Going to be a very busy end of year and continuing through 2018.

[konil] 05/11/2017 01:31

yes steve, and $88m from june at $35/bbl if they put mjf and a5 on production. though they will probably wait to get a6 and a8 results before putting a5 on production. if one of a6 or a8 successful with similar flow to a5 then $132m, if both then $176m.

[steveh8] 04/11/2017 18:36

If they get A5 flowing 3,500 bopd smarty and nothing else then we have a revenue of $50m a year at $20 a barrel. The future looks good just a shame seller is still at it they were matching the buys on Friday but the chart looks like it's on the turn

[xclusive2] 04/11/2017 18:19

...lol Don't think he needs any help there !

[roy1982] 04/11/2017 17:43

x2

It all sounds very good,are you writing CLIVE'S scripts?

[xclusive2] 04/11/2017 10:33

Some bloooooo sky for 2018MJF9 infill wells - Total 15 x 500 bopd = 7500 DeepsA5 - 3500A6 - 3000A8 - 3000801 - 3500802 - 3000Total = 23500 bopdNew structure success at Y 808One of the deeps proves to be an elephant, Tengiz 2 !!Acquisition more acreage and a couple of elephants to exploit.That'll do

[xclusive2] 04/11/2017 09:17

HD,I also interested to see the new CPR for MJF. It it turns out that it is 30mb+ recoverable then we have a 10 year plus revenue stream at £100m pa based on daily output @ 7500bopd (15 wells @ 500 bopd).That will fund the deeps and generate the business profitability. Not sure about the dividend as most investors here will want the multi bagging returns from deep success and the final exit to a major.The story's a good one on the shallows and the other shallow op at Yelemes may prove commercial in time.A5 flowing at 3000 bopd + and we're away to the races.

[konil] 03/11/2017 21:46

toggle, thanks. an unexpected big buyer could help clear the overhang...now where did i put those spare millions...oh, i remember, i dont have those :~(

hd, yes mjf sounds like our backstop. i did like cc's casual reference to possibility of 9 infill wells at mjf after production licence.

[1enigmatic] 03/11/2017 18:21

Will be selling some good quality suits feel I won't be needing them.

[hiddendepths] 03/11/2017 15:26

konil - I think MJF has surprised the company. I know it has surprised me. IMO MJF alone underpins the present market cap. I wish I had a better idea of the likely reserves - ie whether they are short-life wells or whether they can go on producing at plateau for a few years. The areal extent of the field looks interesting.