Civitas Social Housing Share Discussion Threads

[tonester30ccfc] 10/1/2008 13:03

comedy,

Selling MXP was partly down to an enthusiastic Mrs Tone wanting her dream home, partly down to a suspicion (properly founded it turns out) that progress was painfully slow. I still hold some but 10% of my holding at it's peak.

'Disingenuous'? Rarely do I see people posting that they are short and rarely do I see these short positions being properly debated in a gentlemanly fashion. I have been honest, civilised and upfront.

Tone

[comedy] 10/1/2008 12:54

tone, i noted a lot of your posts on mxp and i believe it was yourselve who got in miraculously in and out of mxp when it was getting hit by the directors debacle last year???

explain to me how the wide swings in the share price had anything to do with the fundamentals??? let's be realsitic if you had believed the case of mxp you wouldn't have sold out but held for the true value to out....as some keep saying the shares should be £2 plus there to £10 having been promoted...

I'm glad you made money in mxp.

I don't base my investment strategy on "leaks" as you wrote. my point was that csh holdings share price has suffered badly due to bad luck/management or whatever you choose to believe and with the export licence to be reintroduced i decided yesterday at below 3.5p to buy.

To come on and say you believe it is overvalued/ have opened a short/want to debate fundamentals says to me you are being slightly disingenuous.

good luck whatever you do.

[jackmcwrinkle] 10/1/2008 12:42

neither talks a good game

[geoffcapes] 10/1/2008 12:41

Until CSH can get those old Russian wells to produce more than a cup or two of oil a day or get their hands on the now mythical licence extension they will remain at this level or lower.

Michael Masterman is like John Motson, he talks a good game, however, his skills in playing it are somewhat different.

[tonester30ccfc] 10/1/2008 12:31

Comedy,

You certainly did see me on MXP. I bought a holiday home in Pembrokeshire for cash with the profits made there.

You don't appear to be in a position to justify CSH's move on fundamentals and base your investment case on 'leaks'. An interesting investment strategy if I say so myself.

Perhaps you'd like to elaborate. I'm all ears

Tone

[comedy] 10/1/2008 12:25

lol here we go....tonester30...dont know if it is mxp i have seen you on???

my only point is that many of these oilers aren't valued on fundamental...cpnr last year went from 2.5p to 15p when the russians came on board and a year later nothing has been brought to market as an asset purchased or drilled...

to discuss fundamentals/cost of oil/sale of oil/or any other relevant figures make not one jot of difference to these companies...they fly and fall on either leaks/ proposals off what they are trying to achieve...when they actually try to achieve anything then they are beset by delays/ dry holes and bad luck due to management optimism resulting in the fall in share price and the shorting gangs coming out.

My take is that these are undervalued and never mind the rns just out the fact the buys of 100k aren't just going to be filled from nowhere??? you're short will help those who believe it is going higher to get in lower....i think this should reach at least 8p...if it fals back a tad i will wait as cpnr toook over 6/8 week period to hit it's peak...

[domtheone] 10/1/2008 12:21

There you go. No reason for the rise.

Back down it goes (where it belongs unfortunately).

[geoffcapes] 10/1/2008 12:18

MT global would not re-instate the stop-loss when the bet rolled as it was suspended at the time.

[geoffcapes] 10/1/2008 12:11

Nice darts Tone!

[vavoom2] 10/1/2008 12:10

Geoff

Thought you said you had a 40p stop loss ????????????????

[relishing] 10/1/2008 12:10

tonester,

Also see my comment about high variable costs - $29.7/barrel compared to $11.4/barrel for Sefton.

[tonester30ccfc] 10/1/2008 12:07

eco,

Here's the deramp post. It's put forward in a very factual way and I'm happy to debate the company fundamentals with you in a polite matter of fact way. I am short and already in the money.

Tone

tonester30ccfc - 10 Jan'08 - 11:56 - 26989 of 26993 edit


100bopd sold into the domestic marketplace does not justify the current cap.

Allowing for all oil into an export marketplace (assuming the approval is ever forthcoming) would require some serious accounting creativity to justify £6m cap.

How much cash does this company have? What is the reserve base? The share price has become detached from the underlying fundamentals and valuation

[andrbea] 10/1/2008 12:07

and another 123k buy

[andrbea] 10/1/2008 12:05

.. that's 9880 quid...

[andrbea] 10/1/2008 12:05

biggest buy of today or yesterday:
10.58h (delayed by an hour)
152k at 6.5p

[kiwi3] 10/1/2008 12:02

Caspian Holdings plc
10 January 2008

10 January 2008

Caspian Holdings Plc
('Caspian' or 'the Company')

Share Price Increase

The board of Caspian Holdings Plc, the oil and gas production and exploration
Company in the countries around the Caspian Sea, indicates that they know of no
reason behind the recent increase in their share price and are not aware of any
material information that has not already been announced to the market.

-Ends-

Enquiries:

[relishing] 10/1/2008 12:01

Variable cost also seems on the high side at $30/barrel (using figures from the 2007 interims). Sefton's for example is just over $11/barrel.
The high variable cost makes it much harder for CSH to get into a positive cashflow position.

[ecoejh] 10/1/2008 12:00

tonester30ccfc - 10 Jan'08 - 11:03 - 26980 of 26989

I've opened a short position here. If it goes any higher I'll increase my short

you leave yourself open to being accused of deramping even if your post is a true one......

[1775] 10/1/2008 12:00

Hardly a tree shake - just the inevitable profit taking by those who were lucky enough to buy in a lot lower over the last few months.This has a lot further to run short term once the profit takers are done.

[tonester30ccfc] 10/1/2008 11:56

100bopd sold into the domestic marketplace does not justify the current cap.

Allowing for all oil into an export marketplace (assuming the approval is ever forthcoming) would require some serious accounting creativity to justify £6m cap.

How much cash does this company have? What is the reserve base? The share price has become detached from the underlying fundamentals and valuation

[relishing] 10/1/2008 11:55

Great analysis..

[andrbea] 10/1/2008 11:55

tree shake (inevitable)
but I'm not selling

the 8p (post-ban) target (see earlier posts) was mentioned last August at lower oil prices than now, so let's call that 9 to 10p.

Good luck!

nia / dyor

[1775] 10/1/2008 11:52

The appointment of 2 russians to the board is probably the most significant development in CSH recently.Little has been made of this - YET!!!

[strowan lea] 10/1/2008 11:52

Hmmm...as suspected......Wins drop the bid!

[comedy] 10/1/2008 11:45

regarding producer fallen 400% it is mrp jackmcwrinkle...i dont tend to name stock's on other bb's as dont want to be accused of pumping..sorry for o/t guys


here reading how the sales reported in september 2007 were lower than 2006..so i'm assuming we will have uplift this year and the delays have to eventually work themselves out...also the sustained buying is what??? is it shorters'...other's with same thoughts as myself??? or has news been leaked???

I have bought 3 other oilers all in similar position to csh this week. ie have made progress but have had delays/bad news and corresponding over reaction in fall off share price so it is a bit of guessing which one will deliver good news.
lol thats'my strategy for 2008.