Casdon Share Discussion Threads

[bbinvest] 04/9/2003 00:15

Spread closing again.

I still believe this stock is undervalued, and as long as interims don't disappoint, the price will go some way to recover against January's drop.

BB

[abbo64120] 03/9/2003 14:28

Agreed, although the MM's have been absorbing a few buys of late and havent let the Offer drop at all. Perhaps they are confident that the buying will return as we near the next report.

Abbo

[gamblinman] 03/9/2003 14:26

I made it 14000 shares sold yesterday@45p so there must be a buy to come.

[a0002577] 01/9/2003 19:13

I have had these shares for some time - haven't done particularly well out of them (for that read badly). Just when they looked as though they might take off they messed it up again. No consistency here, I fear, and one wonders whether they are ever going to get their act together consistently. They've made all the right moves but still haven't got the one thing that a company like this needs - steady and improving earnings.

[gamblinman] 31/8/2003 22:37

I go along with most of that.By underestimating the competition last year I feel steps have been taken to put things on an even keel before a full scale attack next year.With Casdon having a base at the end of the M55 they can include their confectionary products with the toys.Obviously this would be difficult for competitors with no UK base or direct link to a confectionary company.Fingers crossed for better times.

[abbo64120] 26/8/2003 09:28

Ditto the above Ian,

Very difficult to nail down a figure with so little info released other than at results time, however I was convinced following a long discussion with a BB associate and further research (inc a call to Paul Cassidy) that the upside is significantly greater than the down. Buy, but only if you dont mind a couple of months waiting is my opinion. As for a price guess.... well its just that (a guess) 75p?

Regards
Abbo

[simonevans] 23/8/2003 00:50

Difficult to predict - could be anywhere between 30p and 120p dependent on the interim announcement and christmas trading imo. As always DYOR.

[ian parker] 22/8/2003 10:38

When do we get our dividends?

What do you think is a fair price for CDY Gordon,Simon,Abbo,BBInvest?

GAMBLINMAN and forensic reckon 70p is about right for the yr end, I can see 60p no probs, what about you guys?

Ian

[gordon_gekko] 22/8/2003 10:08

Bought these. +ive things being talked about re:Cadbury
Bouyant trading currently
Early distribution problems in China all sorted
Belgium Choc shop +ive at Argos

-ive liquidity
-ive Mute chairman

expect good growth this yr. buy and hold

[simonevans] 21/8/2003 22:01

Cassidy don't generally do RNS announcements. They leave it until the results. This is a family run business with no hype. They announce what they have to and that's it. If you trust them, then it's probably worth investing (i do), but if you don't like their style and lack of news flow then it's time to invest elsewhere.

[gamblinman] 21/8/2003 19:36

It could be the loss of income due to the long negotiation had damaged the profit.No matter what we are relying on the cofectionary items to boost profits this year to make up for the competitive role play sector.With the sweet shop,chocolate shop and now these two Cadbury items things are looking good provided the majors are selling them.Argos was their biggest customer last year and have the sweet shop,chocolate shop,dyson and hotpoint washer at the moment.Index too have a strong showing of Casdon products.Getting the go ahead with Cadbury before Christmas must be good news. Casdon sales focus on Christmas.Casdon don't release anything to do with products to the markets because competitors are following and copying.Keeping things under wraps negotiating with major customers for advance orders are all part of this business.

[abbo64120] 21/8/2003 13:03

Fair comment, Thank you. Although I would be surprised if PC didnt know the requirements the Co must adhere to, he certainly knew what he couldnt tell me!

Its pleasing to see that the company writes off costs such as these at the time they are incurred, as opposed to carrying them over as so many companies seem to be in the habit of doing. (Cadbury, not redundo etc)

Regards Abbo

[bbinvest] 21/8/2003 09:12

Hello Abbo

Good question, and apologies for making no effort at response (previously!).

My initial thoughts would be that the deal possibly isn't as big a deal as people think, but re-reading the chairmans statement leads me to think otherwise. PC mentions that a further £150k would have been added to the bottom line if it were not for certain circumstances, these being added pension contributions (50k), redundancy and protracted negotiation costs with Cadburys (obviously £100k between them). The redundancy costs relate to two long term senior employees, so lets guess at £25k each, which would leave £50k relating to the negotiation costs. This (very rough) calculation would indicate that if the company were prepared to invest this much money purely in negotiation, then they must be expecting a significant return.

As I have mentioned on a different thread, the company is a small family business, and run as such. The management do not have a good history of divulging information, & are possibly are not even aware of the need to(!), but in any case, would not want to jeapordise a large and potentialy lucrative licensing deal with Cadburys by announcing it, if that goes against Cadbury's wishes.

BB

[abbo64120] 21/8/2003 08:54

As yet no-one has responded to my question in post No43,so I have copied it in the hope someone can help me.

"Ok ..a Question, Presumably the Deal with Cadburys is a major event (otherwise it wouldnt have even been mentioned in the Interims), therefore probably price sensitive. How can the company not release this news to the market? (Unless the deal doesnt have any impact in the current year maybe?!?)

Regards
Abbo"

[abbo64120] 19/8/2003 15:27

Cheers GAMBLINMAN,

Crazy spread again, what benefit us there in this?

[gamblinman] 18/8/2003 17:37

Abbo I spoke to Paul Cassidy in Jan so there was no mention of Cadbury only that he thought there was one toy he thought would sell very well for this year. I dont know which one or if it is linked with Cadbury though I have seen a heroes toy on mailorderexpress I have not seen the other . Now Ian. I can't Forecast the price over the year.What I can say is that I think in view of the property,cash generation and the management 70p would look more realistic until the results.Paul Cassidy doesn't say much but i feel after the poor results last year he will want to bounce back.

[ian parker] 18/8/2003 16:18

What are your expectations for this share over the remainder of this year Gamblingman?

Ian

[abbo64120] 18/8/2003 13:54

GAMBLINMAN,

In your conversation with Mr Cassidy did you gain any detail on the Cadbury deal? (I guess this depends on how recently you spoke to him)

Regards Abbo

[abbo64120] 17/8/2003 23:47

Good posts guys.

Regards and good luck
Abbo

[gamblinman] 17/8/2003 20:52

Yes phar lap.Not much interest on iii so I came here via the message posted on iii and find this board well up with events and people willing to share info.I though am just like you using information in front of me to make my own investment decisions and whilst I have stopped with Casdon long term it is up to you when to invest.Like I mentioned earlier the company don't give much information so this board helps.

[bbinvest] 17/8/2003 20:30

Good informative posts everyone.

Thanks

BB

[phar lap] 17/8/2003 20:05

GAMBLINMAN are you z34 on the iii site.

[gamblinman] 17/8/2003 19:47

Just a few points on Forensics letter.First are you aware that casdon made toys at Blackpool and employed a lot of people.This if you look at the old rns on moneyextra cost Casdon plenty.They had a loyal workforce who couldn't compete with the pirates of Peking.So The directors took the decision to make staff redundant and ship the equipment to China in the hope of survival.These costs as you can imagine affected the balance sheet but guaranteed the survival of Casdon.In the years after the move about 2-3 ago the balance sheet improved until now at the year end all debts could have been paid off and left the shareholders with net.ass.per share of £3656880 divided by 5524350 shares or 66p.No debt at year end 66p for property and stock with the business thrown in for nothing.What do you think the Casdon name and business will be worth over and above the net.ass.per.share Forensic.In all honesty I havent a clue but any cash generative business in this low interest cycle must be worth quite a bit.So lets wait for this years figures to see if we get a rebound.Quoting figures from when Casdon manufactured here is not a fair comparison.Next with regards to cash levels the company had less cash last year because profits fell.Paul Cassidy mentioned increased stock levels due to a new summer range,lawn mower and electronic barbeque etc.This stock was £3-4 hundred thousand more than last year but was crucial to turnover in the traditionally quiet period.The dividend of 3p was good considering the profit and may reflect confidence in this year who knows only Paul.The chairman rightly mentioned the competition factor but steps have been taken and still are to keep Casdon in front.When i talked to Paul Cassidy he said 200,000 sweet shops had been sold up to last Christmas.But the Kwik fit Garage had not done well.Some toys take off others don't thats the business.The chocolate shop is a follow up and should to well.Keeping the price under a tenner is a psycological thing to some customers and I am glad Paul considered this with the 2003 range.If they make £1 or £2 a toy on quantity it may make up for more expensive role play items that sell less.I agree with you on the bad news Forensic but they may equally shock you like 2 years ago with good news.With a workforce of 31 for design,warehouse and sales, costs have been cut to the bone.Lets be positive and hope for a bounce.