Carlton Res. Share Discussion Threads

[volvo] 07/5/2008 17:16

The assets of Virginia are impressive but also,through NNE CLN owns 10pc of the Bellcourt Saxon project.Wtn owns 50pc of Bellcourt Saxon and it is full of Met coal.Definatly an investment that CBM want along with full control of EGB.Dont let them kid you otherwise.

[bubface] 07/5/2008 17:10

bought more cln and sold holding in cbm in fact went small short cbm today anticipating the arb.

[blueblood] 07/5/2008 17:03

Well if 60p is CBMs limit I suggest that our CEO says thanks but no thanks and well see where we go after operational/trading update. The only reason I would be interested in CBM paper is if there is still significant short term upside potential ie max 3 to 1.

[volvo] 07/5/2008 16:58

Another great day for Coal International aseets.Both EGB and NNE up 5pc and 14pc an all time high respectively.

[tamtoni] 07/5/2008 16:54

Blueblood, for what its worth my thoughts:-

(i)WTN is driving the CBM shareprice.
(ii)The CBM shareprice is currently not a major determinant of CLN's business worth.
(iii)It is only because some investors believe that CBM should be paying such and such a price for CLN and that the offer will probably be in CBM shares that (over the period since the announcement of the intention to bid) people have linked the two prices.

Put yourself in CBM's shoes - what would you do?
Personally I would announce my intention to bid and wait to see if any other interested party comes out of the woodwork to compete with me. The longer I wait the more sure I am that I will have an easy run - and thus I can offer a low price and all in shares with no cash element. If someone does counter me (unlikely as I am in a very strong position) then they will have to pay way above 60p (the effective limit due to the convertible exercise price which on conversion would give me virtually 50% of the enlarged share cap) to entice me and Audley to accept.
If it gets into a bidding war and I am insistent that I want control, all I have to do is either excersie my convert and pick up a few additional shares in the market to take my holding over 50% and bid for the rest at up to 60p (or equivalent in shares) or do a deal with my chum at Audley in shares and cash.
If someone offers an outrageous sum then I may be tempted.

But - and this is the crux - if no other party is tempted to take me on then the market price is the price. No one would be able to argue that there is anyone else willing to pay more for your share holding - you just do not have enough to be important in the scheme of things.
Its unfortunate for small shareholders, but that is life and the reason why large blocks of stock have a premium at certain times in the market.
The above has occurred many times in the past.

When the "share-ratio" question first arose, the posts were all about 2:1 or 2.5:1 being an acceptable level but now the level of 4:1 is being actively discussed. CBM was and probably still is the better investment in my view - hence, as previously stated I have preferred only CBM and WTN.

Edit: was typing and did not see the last two posts before posting the above, sorry for any duplication.

[gb904150] 07/5/2008 16:51

Good points. Question is.....when's the right time to sell CBM shares and buy up CLN.

Wishing I'd been slightly more overweight in CBM now....but still not grumbling.

[papillon] 07/5/2008 16:40

I think pbracken has hit the nail on the head with post 2410. I was definitely wrong when I said last week that CLN would track CBM. That hasn't happened. Why? Well like a lot of other posters on this bb I have been thinking of a 3 for 1 offer. Others have suggested 2 for 1, 5 for 2, 4 for 1 etc. All simple multiples of 1. However I think pbracken is right. CBM are going to offer, say 60p, for CLN, in CBM shares. At this moment in time that would be 1 CBM share for every 3.17 CLN shares based on the current CBM share price Obviously, and cynically, they are waiting for their share price to reflect the underlying value of their assets (mainly WTN) bearing in mind they know that RAB and APF have been selling into strength and holding back the CBM share price So if CBM close, at say, 223p sometime next week and CBM's advisors say that is a fair reflection of their asset value, then they will then declare their offer as 1 CBM share for every 3.72 CLN shares. We all have our own ideas but a set price for CLN, eg 60p, to be paid in CBM shares makes the most sense to me, and probably does to market pros and insiders. This is why we haven't tracked CBM share price recently.

[arja] 07/5/2008 16:08

just noticed this stock ! can anyone tell me if there has been a bid and is it virtually an agreed bid ?

[reghollis] 07/5/2008 15:28

Lefrene email Alwyn and get him to convey your feelings. I usually get a prompt reply from him.

[bushtuckaman] 07/5/2008 15:27

Yes roks, I'm regreting not having some WTN its going like the clappers, only CBM and CLN for me. And there was me thinking the WTN chart was a bit toppy at 80p ffs.

[lefrene] 07/5/2008 15:26

At least the chart might now attract some 'chartists' and help push things up. It certainly beats me how one shareholder can be privy to information that is denied to all the other holders. One has to believe that the independent Director is doing his best for the wider group of holders, but I would like to form my own opinion, WHERE ARE those trading figures?

[reghollis] 07/5/2008 15:26

Roks you aint going to loose at 43p, its just how much you make.

[roks] 07/5/2008 15:24

hi papillon, I got in at 43p yesterday, I dont have any cash otherwise I would get some CBM. Hey, after UNM, i got some URA, still in blue on that one.

Hope this pays off.

[papillon] 07/5/2008 15:07

Hi roks, I remember you from the UMN bb last year. What price did you buy CLN at? If the offer is better than 4 for 1, hopefully 3 for 1, then you will still make a decent profit.

[roks] 07/5/2008 14:58

I should have got some CBM and WTN instead of this......and EBG.

[papillon] 07/5/2008 14:57

WTN storming ahead. It probably wont be long before CBM hits £2. 4 for 1 would be a kick in the teeth for CLN holders but the way the CLN share price has been lagging that of CBM I wonder if market insiders have got wind of CBM's proposed offer and its worse than 3 for 1?

[dannyboy123] 07/5/2008 14:43

Yeah, agreed, we are getting screwed over here - shame the market hasn't second guessed them and realised the true value of this share.

[pictureframe] 07/5/2008 14:39

Agreed THAT IS WHY they wont release the trading update until the deal is done -if they did this would be over 75p imho - stinks

[captain kurt] 07/5/2008 14:39

bluebood...understand your frustration
Randy Eppler is fighting our corner, otherwise the deal would have been done by now. 60p - 80p is my betting. 3:1 the minimum outcome imo

[blueblood] 07/5/2008 14:36

But how long do CBM need before making an offer they must be know CLN inside out. Imho they are delaying to get their share price over £2 and offer a 4 for 1. I was orginally hoping for a 2 for 1 but now will be surprised if we get 3 for 1. Not happy and hope UBS and the independent director tell them no if they make lowball offer. An operational update of our own and factoring in the forward $ per tonne would see us up at 60p!!!

[dannyboy123] 07/5/2008 14:21

Patience blueblood, CLN will bounce at some point. Plus, the more expensive CBM gets, the more people will be looking at CLN as the cheap way in - there may just be a bit of a lag before we see any big rises.

[eastwind] 07/5/2008 13:47

Hickling, I am thinking of doing the same. But, CBM is still much stronger. It seems I can do a 5:1 later. CLN could bounce back any time.

[eastwind] 07/5/2008 11:51

Volvo

What I meant is that 75% of the 65% which is not owned by CBM. As CBM is related party, they should not take part in the voting.