Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[showtyme] 15/1/2018 11:35

Does anyone know how long the FCA usually temporarily suspend trading in these circumstances?

[samdb] 15/1/2018 11:30

wallywoo, I did £300 per point short on Friday via IG. They were even kind enough to let me add a guaranteed stop in case there was a rescue over the weekend.My account will be credited with almost £5k as soon as they decide CLLN isn't coming back.

[rcturner2] 15/1/2018 11:29

dealy is too stupid to realise how stupid he is

[fenners66] 15/1/2018 11:27

>PramBigear
15 Jan '18 - 09:58 - 11396 of 11427

In September I retired and being a sensible man cashed all my risky investments and put £10k each in several shares that 'pay good, regular dividends'.


If true then you were the exact reason why I spent so many hours researching and posting on here - we have been explaining why; for months ; there was no value for shareholders here - it was either bust or debt for equity - sorry you did not read that or listen to it months ago.


As for dealy - he is comedy gold -

13 Jan '18 - 12:56 - 11120 of 11295

"I don't understand how they can need more debt financing unless the business has deteriorated since November (no communication of this from the company ). ....2018 ebita of at least 200m can't be ignored "


He should have stopped after the the first 3 words - you were right for once dealy - You do NOT UNDERSTAND


"Squeezed cash flow is not the same as additional losses"

No its worse !


" No choice but to agree a deal tomorrow. They will trade their way out of it.


Haha Comical Ali at his best !

[dealy] 15/1/2018 11:22

Very sad day. Company was clearly lieing about its finances. Various spikes over the last few months including last week helped to reduce exposure. But still a fiasco.Hoping that capita benefits from this

[wallywoo] 15/1/2018 11:21

hpcg, no PI has been able to short clln for months. It was just too expensive for the companies (eg IG) to borrow stock. Big clue it was going bust back in November. One that I pointed out to everyone on here, but got ignored.

Funny how greed and perception that something is so cheap it is the bargain of the century, makes PI lose their senses!

[pottsypotts] 15/1/2018 11:20

Who is going to benefit from the £2bn pounds worth of contracts awarded to them by the gov?
Surely someone is going to have to step in and probably cherry pick some of the contracts?
Mitie and also Interserve gave out profit warnings last year, wonder if either of these two will now benefit?

[gkp heros] 15/1/2018 11:20

Blue Monday for so many reasons today. I might play some new order to cheer me up!!

[hpcg] 15/1/2018 11:16

One thing that does delight me is the number of people who don't understand how a short position works for a bankruptcy. If every one did then it would be next to impossible to put on short position the day before the company goes under. It frankly doesn't matter if it takes a month, a year or several years to get the money as there is no risk free investment out there approaching that IRR. Based on Afren I'm anticipating 6 months, but it could be much much quicker as CLLN has so few assets, and none at all in Nigeria so much easier to close the books.

[1fox1] 15/1/2018 11:13

The reason a company goes bankrupt is because it's been poorly run. It is not possible to short a company into liquidation. The blame lies with the management. I wonder how much they have been paying themselves by the way?

[nigelpm] 15/1/2018 10:51

to answer the issue re: holding a short position and not closing that position prior to company going into admistration/liquidation, you effectively are in the same boat as anyone holding a long position. i.e up the creek without a paddle.

Not quite.

If you are long you will end up with nothing

If you are short you will end up with the entire exposure back in cash once it is settled. In this case that should be fairly quick as Pwc have already indicated shareholders will end up with nothing - that in itself is quite unusual.

[creddy] 15/1/2018 10:43

to answer the issue re: holding a short position and not closing that position prior to company going into admistration/liquidation, you effectively are in the same boat as anyone holding a long position. i.e up the creek without a paddle.
which is why I would never hold very high risk stock (as here) overnight/weekend regardless of whether long or short.
no matter which scenario unfolded here, shareholders were doomed. never develop an emotional attachment to a stock.

[curriedquaker] 15/1/2018 10:40

Minerva
I agree with you. Hedge Funds started shorting this when CLLN began extending their payments dates with suppliers. The hedge funds picked this up in the published accounts and saw that there was a possible issue with cash flow and reduced margins. If more of us knew how to read a balance sheet there would be less punters thinking this was going to recovery quickly and not get stung,as most on this thread seem to have done.

[rcturner2] 15/1/2018 10:40

Balfour Beatty announce this will cost them £35m to £45m!!

[wallywoo] 15/1/2018 10:36

Minerve, all shorters (incl me) / hedge funds did was identify a worthless equity and short it.

If CLLN had any parts that were worth selling they would of sold them. There were no buyers. All the buyers preferred to wait for administration and pick any assets up cheaper.

Just because you forecast the above scenario, does not make you the cause of it.

[hpcg] 15/1/2018 10:35

No sensible shareholders would have raised 600 million additional money to keep this going! It turns out the shares were worth nothing the day after the last dividend was taken, we just didn't know that for certain; in quantum mechanics terms the wave function hadn't collapsed yet.

[albanyvillas] 15/1/2018 10:34

How much does carillion owe SDY, HSS. PTSG

[nigelpm] 15/1/2018 10:34

It's always sad when a business fails but it's also a fact of life.

[minerve] 15/1/2018 10:33

I don't want to argue with you guys. You have your views and valid points. That is fair enough.

I just wanted people to be open-minded about hedge fund activity and its benefits to both the stock market and society.

[minerve] 15/1/2018 10:31

nigelpm

I am sure you wouldn't be so blasé about things if you were more directly involved.

[minerve] 15/1/2018 10:30

The truth is we don't know for sure whether hedge funds play a part or not.

You don't, neither do I.

They may have 'amplified failure' for it is well known they started the rot by realising CLLN were on extended settlement days with suppliers.

[nigelpm] 15/1/2018 10:29

Minerve,

Most employees will TUPE across to AN Other entity - the construction work still needs to be done!

If anything bringing this crisis to a head quickly has been beneficial.

[minerve] 15/1/2018 10:26

nigelpm 15 Jan '18 - 10:20 - 11408 of 11410

"Yes, company demise is principally the responsibility of the directors - any frustration and blame should be put firmly at their door."

Yes, the blame does sits mainly with them but IF hedge funds hadn't been so aggressive the company could have been given the opportunity for repair for SENSIBLE SHAREHOLDERS and employees!

Why should innocents pay the price for over greedy directors and over greedy shorters?

The directors responsible should take the pain! What pain will they or the hedge funds see? They just move on to the next company.

[hpcg] 15/1/2018 10:25

Hedge funds played no role, and if they did it was benign. The worst that could happen to any investor is to have put more money in. It is possible to lose more than 100%. Shorting did not make a difference to the share price. The big moves down were on profit warnings. That is sensible longs cutting their losses, and new longs requiring an ever bigger risk premium. The share traded down to 56p on the July 2017 and barely rose above that again. It is and always has been corrupt and or incompetent management, toothless directors and debt which kills companies.

[hyden] 15/1/2018 10:23

I disagree Minerve, the problems at CLLN were just too great that the banks would just be throwing good money after bad. Banks held the view it was better to get out with a big loss now than a much bigger loss further down the line. Which is exactly what I did on 10th July last. I lost c. 46% of my investment when I sold out on that day but with hindsight it proved the right move.

I would have preferred that the company continued to trade long enough for the FCA investigation to conclude and for directors' to be held to account. Sadly they will just get away with it now, like they always do. But you can take action yourself. Make a note of their names and steer clear of any shares where they re-surface in future. If all investors take this approach then such Directors will be unemployable for life, which is exactly what they deserve imho.