Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 21/1/2018 13:33

Theresa May is still preferred to Rees Mogg and Boris the jester.
If she steps down I feel a nightmare coming on.

Golden rule.
Never pick a replacement that would please Corbyn.
That rules out the two above.

[temmujin] 21/1/2018 13:26

theresa May wont last the year...far too much stress for a woman of her inept capabilities..will end in disaster

[hpcg] 21/1/2018 12:20

I got wiped out in a relatively small way, as in they were a total loss but just part of a diversified portfolio, with both AERO and ROK in 2010. I've just looked back at my records and I can see I also owned CLLN in that period, bought at 310 in September 2010 and sold for 392 in Feb 2011. I had no idea; whereas the other two have stuck in my mind! I was definitely a fan of dividends back then, without any regard to the balance sheet. I joined ADVFN after that to find out what happened as I didn't have a clue. I would definitely have described me as a mug punter. A muppet is different though. A muppet thinks not only do they know what is going on, but they have the extreme certainty to oppose others in the strongest terms. Worse, a muppet will provide the certainty that keeps the mug punters involved when they might well have (rightly) sold through fear of losing more, which is of course exactly what a skilled operator would do.

A mug punter doesn't deserve to lose, not that it makes any difference to the financial outcome, but some form of post mortem introspection is necessary to start the journey of skill development. Nor does it matter what descriptive term is used, the 0 in the account line is still a 0. A muppet does deserve it. A muppet would willingly join a game of chase the lady on a street corner because "easy money init". A muppet doesn't look at themselves for their loss but blames externalities. A muppet is destined to make the same journey over and over again.

I want to be clear here, in a case like Carrillion where the equity is worthless someone had to lose. The blame for that value destruction lies 100% with the old management team and directors and not with any participants in the stock market. Indeed if we can apportion any blame to investors it is for not forcing out the board, but my goodness that is difficult to do. Absent that all one can do is walk away and limit ones losses leaving the conclusion in the hands of nameless others.

[sweet karolina] 21/1/2018 12:11

Just a few key lessons from my 16 years investing as a PI (many learned the hard way - ie through large losses / complete wipeouts):

There is no substitute for doing your own research. Use the research of others to guide you, but critically analyse everything you read. Avoid confirmation bias by paying particular attention to anything that is contrary to your view point. Think about who has written it and why.

The track record of management and supporters is the most important factor, use all sources, especially CH beta service to really look into it thoroughly. Google is a great research tool, if used properly.

Do you understand how the business is going to make money. Yes there are a lot of things that make money, but you just do not understand the business, leave them for those who understand.

Does the business model make sense. Ie will it generate real cash or will it always just be capitalising costs.

Look at past results. Do not trust anything that has not been audited. Do not assume because something has been audited you can trust it.

Look hard at the P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow. If cash generation and profit are not reasonably well aligned, then really understand why.

Read all the notes to accounts. Generally it is the last or penultimate note that tells you what the related party transactions were - pay particular attention to these.

Paid for PR articles are worthless and should be completely ignored.

It is rare for RNSs to contain outright lies. If you find any just stop researching and avoid. More often the statements in RNSs are misleading, often by what they do not say rather than what they do say. Directors are always confident. Look back to see if their past confidence in things happening has been proven to be justified. Do they over promise and under deliver or is it the other way round.

Consider the macro head winds (or tail winds - it really is a very ill wind that blows nobody any good). How have these changed since last results and how are they likely to change in the near future.

If there is a BB that is not just full of pointless ramping, then discuss your research openly providing links. Take note of any well expressed contrary views. Ask for justification of those views and follow up on what is provided.

IIs can and do make the same mistakes as PIs. IIs who are already in will often put more in to stop a company going bust, because they are playing with other peoples' money and, unlike PIs, cannot easily get out without causing a shareprice crash. If IIs are bailing, follow them out the door as soon as possible, if IIs are backing bail out fund raisings, that may well create a spike and that is your opportunity to get out. PIs are generally at a disadvantage to IIs and have very few advantages over IIs, this is one of them.

Constantly review your research as things change. You will always be taking a risk as it is impossible to eliminate all risk when investing in shares. Understand the risks you are taking and the genuine potential rewards. If the risk reward balance changes, or your view of it changes because you now have more information, then be prepared to cut your losses early. Do not hold and hope, there are other opportunities out there. You do not need to back every opportunity.

Never put in more than you can afford to lose. Spread risk over a number of shares in different sectors and with different risk reward balances. But do not have so many positions in higher risk stocks that you cannot monitor and reassess them regularly enough.

Above all have good luck and enjoy what you are doing.

[mreasygoing] 21/1/2018 11:14

Not a holder, but just wanted to say learn from the experience here chaps. The biggest lesson (and hardest) is losing in order to be a winner with the stock market.

[sharesoc] 21/1/2018 10:58

There is a recent blog post on Carillion available here: hxxps://www.sharesoc.org/blog/insolvency-and-administration/carillion-emis-kpmg/

[luckymouse] 21/1/2018 08:12

Dont agree with the comments that amateurs who lost money are 'mug punters who deserve it'

In my experience most folks who use that nasty expression are arrogant MMs, chop shop operators or acidic lying shorters etc. ie all interest in it going down & use various unfair mechanisms to manipulate the price - in a different field they would simply be called cheats preying on the innocent tbh.

Obviously, the amateurs need to be protected & educated - not sure robbing their house is the best way to go about it - only the thief thinks that's a good idea

[ball deap] 21/1/2018 02:18

Being a fully paid up Labour Party member for years I must say Jeremy Corbyn is right we need to sort out our NHS health system. NOW

But how can we do that when stupid old pensioners are destroying the NHS by using it to much.?? It has nothing to do with foreigners, health tourism, it’s the damb old people.

[losses] 21/1/2018 00:54

Lights out... close the doors behind you...Not sure why this thread is still active.

[rackers1] 21/1/2018 00:49

Ball deap is right

[prambigear] 20/1/2018 21:40

#11594 and that much wonga could also finance the growth of A and E departments in the NHS to help them deal with all the foreigners that I noticed when I had occasion to visit the week after Xmas.

[buywell3] 20/1/2018 18:19

My understanding is one Arabian Government backed client has not paid Carillion for £200 Million of work done on certain football stadiums and associated works


Now Companies that still have Final Pension Schemes in operation stand to have to stump up yet another 'engineered shortfall' it would appear from reading press comments to the tune of £ 2.6 Billions

Which could weaken or perhaps take down what are or were reasonably healthy final pension schemes with workers paying into them , hoping for a decent retirement.

This could be now denied them.

The end of Final Pension Schemes now looks assured and could come within 12 to 24 months

I do hope so , as it might stop another Carillion debacle


Re The UK Government

Most Ministers have proven themselves inept , naive , and not up to the work required to fill the post they hold

Experience for example of running a profitable company would come in handy for many of them

Professional Politicians with a degree in Politics plus economics or history does not cut it any more in 2018

[r ball] 20/1/2018 17:44

The £3bn was spent on skilled British workers,

[ball deap] 20/1/2018 15:52

temmujin Is right, 3£b on warships could have housed 1000’s of refugees and sorted out the crisis in the EU as we could have taken them.

We need to get our priorities right there are millions of refugees we could help. Then there’s the pensioners wrecking our health services we really need to get our priorities right.

[bobmonkeyhouse] 20/1/2018 11:10

do you ever get a share right temmujin? You are like an albatross

[temmujin] 20/1/2018 11:00

the government recently wasted £3bn on bloody warships...what good are they except for killing people and making sailor boys look like super heroes

[adyfc] 20/1/2018 10:56

The government needs to tax all their customers more to get the money back for the company and turn this around. The management are not on that much money for a big company like this they need to be incentivized to come back. They should set up a trust fund for the management to help them absorb the loss of their six figure salaries

[hpcg] 20/1/2018 10:40

wtf! Are you Richard Howson adyfc? It is always managment's responsibility how can it not be?

[adyfc] 20/1/2018 10:23

I don't think you can blame the management, their customers didn't want to pay as much as they should of done. The governement should go after them for more money.