Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[costax1654x] 09/1/2020 10:26

Anyone noticed ORM ?Gold asset in Salamanca and 5 mil £ Cash,no debts, for 3 mil mcap!

[wiseman1967] 09/1/2020 10:25

Hi Fenners66 - I don't want to split hairs with you but because of the greater proportion of sales in the second half and the relatively small weight of online sales, the actual LFL for the second half will not be as bad as the -2.1% that you (roughly) calculated - it will be negative though. I don't think that -0.6% LFL over Xmas is ok but it is better than others (such as J Lewis at -1.8% today). This suggests to me that there is not a major issue with the business/proposition rather a profit fall from taking cost increases on the chin without increasing prices. I can't remember the total number of single cards sold but I think it exceeds 200million. Add 1p to each gives you gbp 2m or gbp 1.7m after vat - this drops to the bottom line. So a 10p increase could add gbp 17m to profits (but that assumes no volume reduction). I still believe in this business and have bought a load more this morning.

[boraki] 09/1/2020 10:10

Being going down for the last 14 days.

Eventually it will bounce

[boraki] 09/1/2020 10:03

Bouncy, bouncy, coming

[leopoldalcox] 09/1/2020 09:52

Is this still in the 250? If so, I think today's price movements will seal its relegation and a raft of institutional selling

[fenners66] 09/1/2020 09:48

Wiseman are you shocked at you perceive to be an overreaction ?
You think LFL at -0.6% is ok

But (see earlier) that is -2.1% in 5 months and gathering pace
As said by someone that is despite online growth - so real LFL shop performance is falling more and we know costs are rising.

They state a 1st profit warning for next year.

Analyse the market - how many profit warnings turn into 3 profit warnings ?

[smokybenchod] 09/1/2020 09:45

wiseman i was a holder here but managed to jump ship at just over £3. nothing in the latest statement today has given me any reason to jump back in. it is a great shame as customers like this shop and it had the potential been one of the shining lights on the battered high street had it not been for incompetent management.

[fenners66] 09/1/2020 09:44

Also you have to ask questions of management quality when they say 14-11-19
"give us confidence that we are well positioned to deliver a good performance in our key Q4 trading period."

Well the results released so far are the opposite.

That update gave us debt figures
Conspicuous in their absence this time !

[wiseman1967] 09/1/2020 09:42

Frankly I am shocked! Talk of reviewing the ordinary dividend has trashed the share price. Completely unnecessary. The ordinary dividend of 9.3p equates to gbp 31.8m and is more than covered, even on their reduced bottom end gbp 81m ebitda for year to Jan 2020. The point of a special div is that you only pay it when needed so no need to touch the ordinary. Overall trading is ok - total sales +3.6% and LFL -0.6% (NB John Lewis announced -1.8%). Profits are down because of cost inflation and management still does nothing to offset this. Prices have not changed since 1997! This upcoming strategy review needs to tackle prices, otherwise it will be time for a new bus driver! Last chance saloon...

[leopoldalcox] 09/1/2020 09:39

The LFL sales decrease includes the sales increase from online, so in store must be worse than advertised.I'm holding for now as the income is good, but really this has been a terrible investment for me.They are facing headwinds, but these are looking more and more like permanent impacts on the companies profitability

[fenners66] 09/1/2020 09:34

UKN - so they still make some profit - no one has said its going bust
However we can see next years profit predicted to fall
Next years dividends will be less

A new strategy is required - they say.

What are your positives to counter that ?

[smokybenchod] 09/1/2020 09:34

agree fenners its the "net impact of market headwind" which was apparent many years ago but nothing was done. i tell a lie, i remember on one of the updates their initiative was to install LED lighting to save a few quid. laughable really

[minerve 2] 09/1/2020 09:34

"With declining profit and higher costs - what will the auditors make of all the intangibles ?"

Judging by previous experience over the last few years absolutely nothing.

LOL

[fenners66] 09/1/2020 09:31

So its gone from LFL growth of +1.5% at half year to -0.6% at 11 months
That is a decline of 2.1% LFL in the 5 months!

Add that to extra 50 stores etc for next year and they do start to have problems
Higher wage costs to come.

1st Profit Warning -
"net impact of market headwinds on FY21 Adjusted Underlying EBITDA is likely to be in the range of GBP5-10m"

Normally come in 3's its the psychology of giving everyone bad news all at once.....


Stronger £ but good hedges minimize the impact.

No special dividend - any more ?

Added uncertainty about future dividends - dependent on cash flow with undefined investment required.

Where is the debt at ?
With declining profit and higher costs - what will the auditors make of all the intangibles ?
Write off to follow with second profit warning ?

[ukneonboy] 09/1/2020 09:30

and to keep things in perspective...... right up and down, throughout all 4 corners of the United Kingdom, shoppers are STILL buying greetings cards, balloons and novelties in Card Factory shops today.

The world has not just ended ..... keeping it real ......lol

[smokybenchod] 09/1/2020 09:24

smacks of bad management to me. it was clear that living wage / fx headwinds were going to be a long term an issue many years ago. so instead of addressing the problem then it was felt it was more important to carry on paying special dividends rather than address the issues. other income streams like aldi etc should have been done then and the special dividend stopped and used to future growth initiatives.

[fenners66] 09/1/2020 09:21

Market reaction to the results reinforces that when negative or contrarian views are posted about a stock , genuine debate should be encouraged.

Play the ball not the man.

If there are strong arguments to be made either way - stick to them.

Its not surprising some are going to say "I told you so" - but we could have none of that if we stick to debating the company and its figures.

[stevieb2190] 09/1/2020 09:08

My comments over the last year have been negative and yet with better management they are well placed..prices need to go up without delay..store openings need to stop as they have become their own biggest competitor..other revenue streams need to be explored and so on...just a question how low do they go before a takeover becomes attractive

[rwight] 09/1/2020 09:07

Got in at various points but I just have a feeling that £1 isn’t far off now. I remember when £2.50 seemed good with the dividend.

[ukneonboy] 09/1/2020 09:01

well, its differing opinions that a make a market place MRF.....lol

[my retirement fund] 09/1/2020 08:58

If they could close all their highstreet shops and just stick to partnering up in store like they did to Asda and stay on line only they may be ok, but wait .....they are expanding on the high street still at break neck speed with over 1000 outlets already! Jeez this has got short me into obliteran written all over it.

[ukneonboy] 09/1/2020 08:26

I'm more interested to see the reaction of Card Factory's major shareholders.
post this trading update. If they start to panic sell then its time to worry, otherwise it's business as usual at Card Factory stores up and down the UK.

[bookbroker] 09/1/2020 08:22

Wood hawk must be shorting the stock!😉

[ukneonboy] 09/1/2020 08:18

woodhawk - dont rise to the bait ....he's pushing your buttons....lol

[woodhawk] 09/1/2020 08:17

'Proved wrong'! LOL. You have absolutely no idea - I've made plenty from CF; and it's not over yet.