Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[ukneonboy] 08/1/2020 15:00

That analysis of Card Factory by Stockwatch has to be one of the best I've read in a long time. Suggests C/F is undervalued and def worth a punt. Thanks FIZZY

[fizzypop] 08/1/2020 14:05

Worth a read:



SORRY ALREADY POSTED

[ukneonboy] 08/1/2020 12:52

To be really honest, I'm less concerned about the C/F Xmas trading statement than the Iran / USA tension in the Gulf. (An escalation by either side, will hit global share prices)

But closer to home, with Card Factory, the thing to remember is, that if you've got the time to wait and the money to hold the shares, you've nothing really to worry about. Its highly cash generative and the dividend yield is mega attractive for income seekers

Worth a punt, I think.......and after the trading update has been released, I hope C/F management team might start to buy some C/F shares personally as this would provide further reassurance

[makinbuks] 08/1/2020 12:38

Agreed, if the fundamentals are in place the Woodford/Invesco effect will be short lived. I totally agree with you the question is how good an investment is this, not second guessing the market reaction to events week by week

[ukneonboy] 08/1/2020 12:35

MakinBuks

You raise a fair & valid point about the Woodford shareholding, but realistically this is not going to directly affect how many cards + gifts + novelties are sold by C/F in the next 12 months.

I'm guessing an Institutional Placing of the former Woodford shareholding probably will be initiated at some point in the next 12 months, when the Woodford fund is officially wound-up but if it's priced right, other Institutional investors will almost certainly buy-in.

[makinbuks] 08/1/2020 12:33

Some good comments on tax today in the SHOE update particularly on business rates echoing Mike Ashley a couple of weeks ago.

[ukneonboy] 08/1/2020 12:26

Ok, so here's my thoughts, ahead of the trading update due tomorrow morning

If the Xmas trading statement is "better than anticipated" then logically you would expect the market-makers to re-evaluate Card Factory shares, which would probably involve a jump upwards, when trading starts.

On the other hand, if the Xmas trading statement is "worse than expected" then the market-makers are likely to discourage selling by marking down the share price in early trading.

So the next question is...........if I buy now (ahead of the update) and the market reacts negatively would I be happy to hold onto Card Factory shares, as an investment??

To which the answer is undoubtedly YES based on good dividends and the fact that C/F is a highly cash generative business.

Also given the fact that C/F shares were trading within the 160p - 170p range in mid-December, ahead of the sell-off / mark-down / negativity / or whatever you want to call it, I suspect there is very little downside from here (around £1.40 ish).

Obviously nobody can predict exactly what's going to happen for sure but I personally see more upside potential than downside in the short-term.

And with that, my SIPP has just acquired more C/F shares at a small fraction over 140p so we will now await the trading statement and hope for a re-rating of C/F shares.

[makinbuks] 08/1/2020 12:21

UK, I agree with your CVA jibes but I wouldn't take it from the fact that Invesco and Woodford hold large stakes that CARD is not in financial trouble!

[ukneonboy] 08/1/2020 11:54

I like your thinking FIZZY and JOHNY and I might even follow suit myself.

[fizzypop] 08/1/2020 09:21

A moderate top up at 139.67p seemed the low risk approach.

[johnybigarms] 08/1/2020 09:19

I’m going with my gut feeling, it’s the value businesses that are doing well these days, Marks and Spencer’s and upper end stores have been hit the hardest on the high street, Debenhams and the like we’re out of date, expensive, old fashioned, non of these can be said of the Card Factory, amazing value, unrivalled value, sensible locations and Aldi taking stock is a blinding move, they are the darlings of the supermarket offerings, getting bigger and stronger every year, a great partner for us, I have never seen a quiet store yet, Card Factory or Aldi’s, I make a bee line for one when I need cards or groceries, and we will always buy cards, digital cards are vulgar, I wouldn’t dare send one to someone I care for, just like digital books haven’t taken off as predicted, people always like the real thing, Clinton’s are not a sign of lower card desires, but the sign that people want value and Clinton’s were out of touch, expensive and offered nothing Card Factory offer for a third of the price. Buy

[devonbeachbum] 08/1/2020 08:45

Always a tricky time Salpara. Wait til after the good news and you lose some of the bounce as the share price is already going up before you get your trade in. Take the chance before hand and risk not getting the news you want. The Joys of being an investor!

[salpara111] 07/1/2020 20:59

Waiting for the update. Cash ready.
As long as LFL is positive and margins are maintained there is room for a decent bounce.

[ukneonboy] 07/1/2020 18:45

1novice you are clearly a legend !!! (in your own mind) - sadly the rest of us think otherwise

but please do remind me when the "C.V.A" occurred because I must have missed it ? LMFAO

also do you really think the large C/F institutional shareholders would STILL be holding shares in C/F if it was in financial trouble ??.

C'mon talk sense man.

[1novice] 07/1/2020 18:18

To prove to melts like you, neon that I actually know what I'm talking about 🙂

[stevieb2190] 07/1/2020 18:07

Plenty of good stuff from the professionals and a 66% positive sentiment towards card according to ig index..results in from some private card retailers according to progressive greetings..3.5 % up was the best but all were up despite the constant rain leading upto xmas..

[ukneonboy] 07/1/2020 17:23

thanks paleje

[approach3] 07/1/2020 16:23

Thanks paleje. Very Interesting. I have added,

[paleje] 07/1/2020 16:00

Edmond Jackson has given a view on ii this afternoon:-

[ukneonboy] 07/1/2020 12:44

Institutional shareholders in Card Factory PLC
==============================================

Largest Shareholders 66.84%
===========================



Holder Shares % Held


Invesco Asset Management Ltd.as of 16 Dec 2019 74.76m 21.89%
Teleios Capital Partners GmbH as of 14 Jun 2019 37.99m 11.12%
Artemis Inve Management LLP as of 15 Dec 2019 34.33m 10.05%
Majedie Asset Management Ltd.as of 15 Apr 2019 24.42m 7.15%
Woodford Inv Management Ltd.as of 05 Jun 2019 17.04m 4.99%
Norges Bank Inv Management as of 15 Apr 2019 11.10m 3.25%
The Vanguard Group, Inc.as of 01 Dec 2019 9.42m 2.76%
Unicorn Asset Management Ltd.as of 01 Dec 2019 7.11m 2.08%
Legal & General Inv Management .as of 01 Dec 2019 6.33m 1.85%
Aberforth Partners LLPas of 01 Dec 2019 5.79m 1.70%

souce: Financial Times

[ukneonboy] 06/1/2020 22:03

1novice - why are you bothering to post anything on this BB ?

you clearly dont like Card Factory, so why waste your time ??

[russ1983] 06/1/2020 17:31

lets hope they sold a lot of cheap cards :-)

[devonbeachbum] 06/1/2020 15:18

Aldi's post record Xmas sales...