Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[chester9] 04/11/2024 12:44

200 million pounds

[chester9] 04/11/2024 12:44

Marks and Sainsbury are expected to take a £200 hit to their tax bills. Sky news. All retailers and hospitality are getting hit. In reality the online sheds will be as well.

[omron] 04/11/2024 12:42

Junebug & Yump. Your comments made me look at the Moonpig investor site. They have published an October 2024 OC&C report with some interesting slides. Online card sales are 15% of the UK market (they see this growing to 20% by 2027). Greetings cards are one of the most resilient categories in a recession. Online ASP is £4.40 and they don't see price as a barrier to online penetration. Between 2019 and 2023 Moonpig increased its market share from 60 to 70percent whilst Funky Pigeon fell from 21 to 12%. Perhaps not being properly managed by WHSmith who may sell to CF? FP sales £32m and ebitda £5m (down from £8m prior year). Attachment of gifts/cash to cards is 63percent which increases the addressable market byc15x - hence the CF management strategy

[yump] 04/11/2024 11:53

2junebug

Yes all retailers have equal business models.

Except some are more equal than others.

O/t
Dismissing the US businesses as flashy is fair in some cases, but they are increasingly owning the world.

Subscribing to live is the business model.

[yump] 04/11/2024 11:38

Bbonsall

Perhaps you haven’t noticed but a vast number of UK residents are paying subscriptions to US corporations. They’ve got you for life.

I think thats worth rather a high valuation as a business.

Anyway I’m done here with the business teach-in. Its falling on ears covered by headphones.

[bbonsall] 04/11/2024 11:29

Yump, you are making my point.
The high ratings you mention are about pure hope, here we have actual performance.

[bbonsall] 04/11/2024 11:27

How come the average PE ratio for Specialist Retailers is 17 and CARD is on 6x.
CARD has a much stronger business model, balance sheet, cash generation, debt reduction, revenue increase than most.

[yump] 04/11/2024 11:23

Because its not all about eps and it never was.

Why do you think so many major US businesses are valued so highly - some of them only recently into profit?

[bbonsall] 04/11/2024 11:18

As I have said before. Moonpig EPS is 9.6p and share price is £2.50
If CARD EPS FALLS from 14p to 10p why is its share price only 85p?
Go figure. The truth is CARD is grossly undervalued even more now!

[yump] 04/11/2024 11:16

Sigh.
Why is it so difficult to stick to facts? Moonpig is not “based in a tax haven” as someone said above.

Oh I see, Guernsey was mentioned in passing.

Perhaps Labour will be pleased if Card create and train a more adaptable workforce with full-time jobs, instead of using stop-start recruitment.

Or Perhaps its fair enough if outdated business models suffer.

[actscap] 04/11/2024 10:57

Sums it up well. Moon has smaller tech focused workforce with established salaries. CARD is predominantly made up of living wage workers and no doubt a lot of 18-20 workers. Ultimately the higher ni and wages hit card particularly hard as they operate on the value end of the market. They'll raise prices but will need to be very conscious of not pushing prices too hard. It's difficult to calibrate. Moon may ride the storm quite well with 89% recurring customers they don't face same price sensitivity. With all the negative consumer sentiment pre budget, plus other well telegraphed cost increases, a miss to the bottom line is inevitable in my view. Whilst still objectively decent value, the thesis is less attractive than it was and there's clearly going to be more reliance on the growth story going forward.

[fft] 04/11/2024 10:45

Don't think so. Many jobs are seasonal - i.e. only a month or two at Xmas, and many of those are just weekend jobs. Indeed, I would not be surprised if a decent % of those employed during the rest of the year are also only weekend and holidays.

[omron] 04/11/2024 10:44

Time for some lobbying of Rachel Reeves on some of these points. Given she is so keen to see fairness, how can it be fair that CF which employs 10k people gets hit by NIC threshold changes, NIC increases, NLW increases and high business rates while Moonpig bases itself in a tax haven and avoids most of these?

[yump] 04/11/2024 10:20

So is it likely it will create more full time jobs as an indirect consequence?

[taylor20] 04/11/2024 10:04

employing (lots of) people but for only 10-15 hours a week, means minimal NI bill - hence the big impact of the recent changes.

[yump] 04/11/2024 09:56

Card revenue: 460mln ish
10000 employees

Moon revenue: 340mln ish
700 employees

I thought that must be wrong but Google never puts up dodgy website info. surely? ;-)

Very simplistic of course but a bit of a stunning difference and perhaps am indication of the problem.

I hold MOON but not CARD. Lost enough on MTC to put me off physical retail for good.

[actscap] 04/11/2024 09:19

Moon is much more resilient to changes in nic and the nlw. Card disproportionately hit, eating into margins with a slightly narrower price gap between moon and card.I don't envy CARD management over the next couple of years. Some v careful calibration of prices and operations to retain their growth ambitions, dividend payments and do their best to protect margins. I'm a long term holder, but it would be folly to suggest CARD isn't hit particularly hard by the budget.