Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[ayl30] 04/11/2024 09:06

Deutsche Bank raises Moonpig from 220 to 290p. I wish someone would do that to CARD

[muffster] 04/11/2024 07:50

Can tell you Simply Wall Streets303p.

[omron] 03/11/2024 23:33

Fenners - 1junebug gave us his/her view on CF value - what is yours?

[everton448] 03/11/2024 23:05

Thanks fenners - another interesting post

[fenners66] 03/11/2024 21:18

1junebug - I have only been looking at Card to any extent since the interims - as I have previously been a customer I had card on my watchlist for years (with a view to buying) but covid put me off and I have not paid much attention since then until recently.

Hence I Thought that they bought their cards in from China after noting that in the past (5 years ago or so) hence looking up the reference to FX stuff that I remembered from back then. I did look up google maps about the factory since the interims and if memory serves - some of the street view pictures have a different name on the factory - that's why I thought it was new.

As for bragging - I did say that I had NOT shorted any of the shares I have really done research on. So some would say I have been wasting my time.

Actually all the permabulls that I have upset on the way always say I have been wasting my time , even as they watched their shares disappear down the drain - but I have had a few messages thanking me for the analysis as some had not bought after reading the "bear questions".

Clearly this share is not going bust and is making a profit.

I have not set aside any time yet to try and come to a conclusion on how much hence questions for others - maybe i find it easier to see where things can go wrong than to work out where things could go right.

Many bulls read everything good implied by any management as sacrosanct. It might happen therefore it will. I try and read what management have not written and ask why not?

Since the market has taken it down - it comes back on the radar to buy

[everton448] 03/11/2024 11:21

Thank you - much appreciated

[kaos3] 03/11/2024 08:35

an other aspect on the price increase in general

price (not) increase could be a management tool. by not doing it one gets clarity on where the unefficientcies are and lift the fog and can fine tune and push the organisation to the perfection.

and only then rise the prices

by just rising the prices - it is the easiest thing to do and could make the organisation more relaxed... but less efficient in the longer run

[everton448] 03/11/2024 08:16

1juneberg and fennels - I've enjoyed reading your posts which my make a difference from the usual unevidenced this is going to rocket or this is going to zero. May I ask what you each think the business is worth given the new NI and NLW environment? I am assuming that earnings miss the 14p expectations simply because the second half seems task seems too steep. But even at a rebased 12p this should be a reliable producer of free cash for years to come? Or am I talking nonsense? Thanks in advance

[premium beeks] 02/11/2024 19:55

I was in MeadowHall last night and popped in to Card. The usual steady stream of customers in and out. Seems the section of cheaper cards is getting smaller, or it was in this more premium location anyway. Wife bought 2 cards at 2.99 each - the first time I've been supportive of post 99p purchases in this area!

[fenners66] 02/11/2024 17:55

1junebug - "if you want to be rude and braggadocios about things"

about what ?

"Some of your comments seemed to imply that their is an issue with the top-line and pricing-sensitivity"

no they don't - they ask others, who say that ramping up the prices is easy and would have fixed all the margin problems that actually led to the first half profits massively declining - why the management did not do it?
I offered up 2 answers , either they who know their business better than anyone - decided its not so easy or they missed a trick , its not implying either.

[taylor20] 02/11/2024 14:39

My figures for the wage bill come out as:

2023 H1 £53,300,000.00
2023 H2 £70,700,000.00
2024 H1 £64,400,000.00
2024 H2 £81,336,169.20
2025 H1 £83,120,245.87
2025 H2 £102,726,084.00

Which looks pretty scary, but assuming 6% revenue growth this year and 10% next leaves EPS at 10p for both years.

This assumes no more rev. from US/SA/AUS. So scope to surprise to the upside with a fairly good value base case (at this price!).

[taylor20] 02/11/2024 14:29

My reading of this is that the cards are cheap and low margin bread and butter, building a reputation that Card Factory is good value for money and the place to get a good deal.

However the gifting stock (from US dollar suppliers) is where CF makes its margin. A random comparison of items from their website 8 out of ten times CF was more expensive than other online retailers (CF also charge postage so it's not that postage is included). I was taken in by this as it was my wife's 50th lately and was going to get some helium balloons - CF were one of the most expensive (they also had no 0's!).

[fenners66] 02/11/2024 13:43

As for the card production etc the 2024 finals included :-

Large-scale print facility in Baildon, Yorkshire, (Printcraft) is a key USP for cardfactory.
• Produces 70% of all cards we retail through our store network as well as our online cards

We design 80% of our cards and 70% of our gifts and celebration essentials in-house

My understanding in /of the past was based on reading such as in the 2019 accounts

"With approximately half of its annual cost of goods sold expense relating to products paid for in US dollars, the Group takes a prudent but flexible approach to hedging the risk of exchange rate fluctuations."

Where it also mentions "finished goods purchased from third party suppliers, import duty, freight costs, carriage costs"

If they have been producing in the UK for the whole time are they now producing more in the UK than in the past ?

[fenners66] 02/11/2024 13:15

1junebug in answer to your "got shorts" question - yes lots of them .
I wear them to the gym and in summer...

If I had shorted the shares I would have done very nicely and that is true about just about every share I
have researched and gotten bearish about in the last say 10 years. (read back through my posting history if you like) .

But alas I don't short the shares I look for investments after all shorts can make you 100%
Long term investments can make 1000's%

I actually think Card Factory is a good business they don't overcharge which helps - I hated getting dragged into Clintons

However at the moment the share price needs to find a level and the market is mindful of the knock on effects of the budget - highlighted by the company's interims blaming NLW

[bbonsall] 01/11/2024 19:06

fenners66

The Card Factory has been designing, manufacturing, and selling their own cards since 1997, when they opened their first store in Wakefield, UK:

As you say Junebug, been making cards since the start of their busines.

In terms of the budget, all employers in all businesses like factories, shops, hodpitality, transport etc are equally affected. Including CF competitors.
All the talk here seems to forget that. CF will deal with it like every other employer and, with their past record, will probably deal with it better than most!

[yf23_1] 01/11/2024 18:10

Don't the cards already have a sticky price label on. So maybe not so simple to adjust the price till all that stock is gone ?

[pugugly] 01/11/2024 17:12

fenners66 - Good point re factory - Will be hit badly by the budget Same as you have pointed out about UK shops - Buy the timeline point.

So you know if the UK factory will be producing for the US. If so a risk of being Trump*led with tariffs next year.

[fenners66] 01/11/2024 16:51

tradertrev - their own cards - but they bought them in from China (?) and still do with some I guess,
they have only been making their own in their own factory - is it somewhere in Yorkshire - for a couple of years. Sure I read that in the accounts as a benefit , shorter lead times and more able to respond to demand.

But a factory run efficiently needs volume , they should keep the presses running 24/7