Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[bountyhunter] 04/10/2024 20:01

Not an obligation at all as no other directors are doing the same. A sign of confidence in my view and considerably better than a sale regardless of the size. 4.5k is not the kind of sum you waste even if you are a director. Note that no directors are selling so they obviously don't think it's going much lower and we know that there is confidence in meeting FY expectations.

[actscap] 04/10/2024 17:47

Darcy comes across as an excellent operator. He's been really transformative at CARD. If he pulls off the FY estimates I'll be impressed. Interesting he reiterated that profitability from efficiencies is dependent on the stuff they've put on place on which they're in control. Love the confidence. Suspect they'll fall a bit short of the fy profitability estimates but hit revenue estimates. Exciting to see how things progress

[brucie5] 04/10/2024 13:53

Took some at 97p having visited CARD Abingdon this morning. Not full of people, but enough to form a fairly steady trail to the till, where there were two personnel. I have to say I still haven't bought anything from the shop, not being much in the market for their product, but can see they have a good range. I would say it's a bit like Greggs, which I do frequent, whenever I want cheap and cheerful - if only they could get that kind of footprint! But it does serve an important niche as peeps will always, I hope, want to buy cards and inexpensive stuff to mark occasions and relationships. I would say, without too much knowledge of the business, that the solution to increased wage demands, is obviously with raising the price point to whatever the market will bear- rather than cutting the staff from two to one. Always pays to motivate your personnel. And the wildcard is whatever they manage to come up with in the States.

Meantime the dividend at c. 5.8 is looking like value; and with 40% off the recent share precise it feels a bit like the January sales come early. So I'm a buyer at this level, with patience to hold and maybe add a bit if it goes lower. I doubt very much it it would fall more than 90p - but that's just my sense of the chart. On the other hand, if it begins to rise sharply above £1 on a market reappraisal of the sell off, there could be a decent capital profit to take with, or before the dividend.

[car1pet] 04/10/2024 11:11

Catching the bottom is very difficult and risky. Best to wait to see a steady rise before buying.

[everton448] 04/10/2024 10:41

Very positive write up from Edison and an interview with Darcy which seemed equally positive. Again emphasising they expect to meet guidance

[roguetraderuk] 04/10/2024 10:10

mkt isnt going apply a 20x rating on present management performance. if things happen as they say, it will be double rerated on an earnings and management front. at the moment they are in the penalty box as they say. watch for higher prices in the shops, without that it will be impossible for them to come in in line let alone beat for the reasons i mentioned earlier.

[pugugly] 04/10/2024 09:54

Surely with the growth of the digital age and card senders (the analogue people passing on) card sending is a declining market - OK CARD maybe market leader but overall market is probably in decline

[longwell] 04/10/2024 09:26

What a out USA deal?.If its live for Xmas will be announced soon.With share price movement I would expect a update at the same time.

[riverman77] 04/10/2024 08:21

Bbonsall - I agree that this looks too cheap even if you cut earnings to say 12p. But in my experience shares almost always fall further if they fail to meet guidance - not always logical but that seems to be the way things work. Tempted to buy a few at these levels but mindful they're likely to stay under prrssure until Christmas trading update is out the way.

[1224saj] 04/10/2024 07:57

Let's not forget the huge investment by our seasoned experienced investor from the land of OZ

[actscap] 04/10/2024 07:52

Ah sorry wrong board. Just clarifying that Pam Powell is a she not a he. And she is an iNED not a NED. The small purchase means independence is not breached and helps align with SH interests. Would usually be bullish and indicate strong governance, but in the absence of other iNED and NED and exec buying it's difficult to say.

[actscap] 04/10/2024 07:49

Pam Powell purchased shares in Card Factory, acquiring 4,766 shares on October 1, 2024, at a price of £1.036 per share. This purchase gives her a small stake of 0.0014% in the company. So far, there is no indication that she has made similar purchases in other companies where she serves as a Non-Executive Director, such as Origin Enterprises.

[amt] 04/10/2024 07:46

Second class stamps staying the same price.
Ridiculously expensive postal costs for such a bad service. They need to modernise and reduce operating costs.

[chester9] 04/10/2024 07:32

Last year H2 gross margin was 35.7% H1 25 was 32.6% because in part 21% increase in wages. Can they hit TY H2 35.7%, tbc

[bbonsall] 04/10/2024 07:30

All this talk about whether it meets 14p EPS is a bit of a red herring.
The fact is CARD is massively undervalued whether its EPS is 14p or 10p.
It is a good well run company with increasing revenues, expansion opportunities and plenty of scope for increasing profits too.
Whatever the FY 25 EPS turns out to be the share price should already be over 150p, where it was actually heading before this nonsense took hold.

[riverman77] 04/10/2024 07:19

Looks like they need to do about 11p in H2 to meet guidance. They are heavily H2 weighted and did about 8.5p in H2 last year. So that would require a 30% YoY rise in H2 EPS which feels a bit of a stretch.

[kaos3] 04/10/2024 07:17

us line was kind of marketing imho PR

otherwise they would spill the names. they always did

[chester9] 04/10/2024 07:16

US deal is vague. It sounds great but it could be a small start. If with a major player then it will be significant but not impact this year's revenues.

[roguetraderuk] 04/10/2024 06:56

after the overhang from teleios was removed the shares were able to break higher on the back of improving results and a low valuation but now its all about a lack of confidence in the management given that it appears they were blindsided by the rising minimum wage, something that the government telegraphs in advance. so it now shouldnt be a surprise that the mkt isnt fully confident in the company meeting full yr forecasts given that if they continue the same run rate, they will miss again. essentially prices need to go up to cover the h1 shortfall as well as ensure h2 doesnt miss.

[longwell] 04/10/2024 06:32

Expect USA deal In next 6 weeks as in place before Xmas.I would expect a trading update at the same time.Then shorters will close and share price rise steadily into full year results and dividend.

[everton448] 04/10/2024 05:10

I thought they did 3p in H1 25 as opposed to 5p H1 24, meaning they need to over 11 in H2 25 to meet targets.

[fft] 04/10/2024 02:50

80p would be a complete overshoot.They did 5p in H1. H2, including Xmas, is always a lot stronger than H1. So, say 7.5p for H2. That would be a miss compared to 14p, but still 12.5p for the year.80p would be a P/E of 6 1/2. Using their criteria of 3 times cover,that would be a 4.1p dividend for the year and a yield of 5%.It would seem that most of the stocking and capex expenses were in H1, so H2 should also be far more cash flow positive - leading to a further debt reduction.That really doesn't include anything for the USA side. The USA card market is big, and there is no Living Wage, so any growth over there would reduce the dependency on the UK retail market. The same with expansion in Australia . And, we can always hope they hire people who know how to run an online business. Quite why Moonpig can do it, but card factory cannot is beyond me. I would also hope for some meaningful share purchases from directors and not just relying on share options .

[everton448] 03/10/2024 22:01

Would expect this to languish close to 80 if not lower. The market seems to expect them to miss their full year targets. If so, it will get absolutely hammered.

[everton448] 03/10/2024 21:59

There is an expectation that a non-exec will purchase shares. To buy such a small number of shares, a fraction of the fee receivable for being a non-exec, is anything but a sign of confidence,It is an obligation, met at the lowest possible level.