Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[clem h fandango] 22/10/2024 12:01

Meanwhile, SHOE share price recovering.You couldn't make it up!

[actscap] 22/10/2024 09:03

If look across to shoe results, think it'll be a very tough ask to hit FY expectations at CARD. Particularly given headwinds - budget changes, day one workers rights, shipping costs, wage inflation, etc. Also need to remember the US deal is for distribution of Xmas cards only at least at this stage. So whilst revenue could hit, a miss on pbt is likely. That all said, I consider a miss is safely priced in now. It's time to buy if you have longer term view imo.

[clem h fandango] 22/10/2024 07:48

I'm not reading that as rude. Curt maybe. You really do post glumly which is very understandable given the current share price decline, however every day there is an exit between 08:00 and 16:30 to buy something you can positively get behind. In fact we all have that option.Shares generally spring back to fair value eventually, for me it's a sit on hands time but it's not nice, granted.

[clem h fandango] 22/10/2024 07:26

Do you ever stop whining?!

[everton448] 22/10/2024 07:25

Regardless of where we stand on what the share price should be, it looks like support at 90 has not held. How low do we think this goes now?

[bbonsall] 21/10/2024 16:50

Yes it does deserve at least the average rating of specialist retailers which is 17 x earnings.
When all shops were closed and CF was in severe danger of bankruptcy the share price was still 50p even then, so 88p is ridiculous now.
This is why it should have already been trading at 17x14 which is £2.30+
Moonpig is trading at £2.50+ on earnings of only 10p per share, why is that?

[everton448] 21/10/2024 16:15

Do you think that the market would price this company at almost 18 times earnings (150/8) after a decline in earnings of over 40 percent (from 14 to 8). If that happened the share price would tank even from 88.5 pence imho.

[bbonsall] 21/10/2024 15:24

If it only makes 8p earnings per share and is paying 5% dividend the share price should still be over £1.50.
Before the share price fell and expected earnings were 14p per share the share price should have been over £2 at that point. The fall is from a very undervalued share price in the first place which makes it even more stupid.

[everton448] 21/10/2024 15:04

Into the 80s. The thing that worries me is that the share price has fallen by 34% on the back of the company announcing that it will meet its targets for the full year. Primarily, because the market does not seem to believe that. But in the event that contrary to what it has said, the company does not meet its targets, it seems likely that that announcement will be met by a further fall. So it suffers a double hit on effectively the same news.

[peddlers] 20/10/2024 20:04

Obviously H1 profitability is down a bit (a hike in operating costs) but if the boards guidance is unchanged then they are obviously confident of strong H2 earnings (H2 weighting+), so on a forward PE of c. 6x they are rather cheap IMO. I personally think that the H1 figures (plus the doubt around the higher level of income required to meet full year guidance) are now priced in. If they do manage to meet expectations then there should be a marked increase in price. How will CARD realise a better H2 performance than H1? Well, historically H2 is always stronger than H1. In terms of percentage of full year results - 2024 operating profit ( H1 37% Vs H2 63%); So, for 2025 it's going to be 27% Vs 73% to meet expectations (Edison). So, the question then becomes, how is CARD going to realise a higher than normal H2? They have a few good initiatives. I like some of them - Partnerships, strategy to open additional stores, labour optimisation, a focus on removing non value adding activities (sounds like a classic Lean waste reduction effort). On CARDs efficiency campaigns & productivity drives, these initiatives can take time to come to fruition, but I am confident (having adopted them myself in the past) that these initiatives will be having a positive affect on H2 profit margins. At these levels, I'm happy to build my position in the run up to FY earnings. I have a short-term target of about £1.20 and a longer-term target (depending on the market) to be closer to £2. That, along with the dividend (goes ex dividend at the of month), and the daily chart indicating that CARD is in oversold territory makes me feel rather comfortable to hold, and to potentially add more; between now and the next few months.

[muffster] 20/10/2024 06:38

If employer NI rises, just do Salary Sacrifice for pensions

[disc0dave46] 19/10/2024 16:34

Technically RSI in oversold but could still fall through support at 90p. May take some if it does.

[bountyhunter] 18/10/2024 19:21

Yes, but the point I'm making applies to both in that both ultimately end up being absorbed by higher prices with nothing specific to Card.

[bbonsall] 18/10/2024 19:00

I think the effect of a 1% increase in employers’ NICS would be a drop in the ocean compared to the recent 10% rise in the National Living Wage.

[bountyhunter] 18/10/2024 18:42

Increased employer NI would affect all employers and simply fuel inflation, card would be affected no differently than other employers all of whom would need to charge more for their goods and services to offset any future increase.

[bbonsall] 18/10/2024 16:57

Surely maximum uncertainty was during Covid! No comparable uncertainty now.
The uncertainty during covid was a matter of survival or bankruptcy.
Now the uncertainty is only about whether CF makes a profit of 12p a share or 14p a share! In either case that should support a share price twice its current level!

[gswredland] 18/10/2024 16:24

Yes, but the chart looks bad and with current uncertainty you wonder where it will end up
We will see..

[bbonsall] 18/10/2024 16:13

This gets more ridiculous every day,
Consider the growing revenues, profits, reducing debt, paying back all government Covid loans, not needing to issue more shares to raise £70 million during Covid and now paying 5% dividend.
During shutdown when CF was loss making and in danger of going bust the share price hardly fell below 50p. How does the market now value it at only 90p! One day the penny will drop - I hope!

[dennisbergkamp] 18/10/2024 15:02

Doom sayers / shorters

Card season is coming….
D

[everton448] 18/10/2024 13:40

90 has for some time been a strong resistance level. If that doesn't hold, I wonder where this ends up?

[salamander69] 18/10/2024 11:54

"Could be the fear of increased employers NIC"Hatfulofsky makes a great point.I'm out at the moment - possibly considering an entry (after holding for a number of years bought in pandemic). I've done well in the past on this share - but for me I'm sitting on my hands on any re-entry here until budget on 30th Oct. Given the impact of living wage on this company - I'm sure the share price will be sensitive to any increase in employers NIC. Happy to miss the absolute bottom (if indeed we are there now)! For more budget certainty.GLA

[hatfullofsky] 18/10/2024 07:23

Could be the fear of increased employers NIC

[dennisbergkamp] 17/10/2024 14:17

I’m in, let’s play cards

D

[longwell] 17/10/2024 13:01

Must be big selling order in background. Will look again in 2 weeks .