Card Factory Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 01/11/2024 10:02

As I posed the question fft they could have raised prices but they didn't and they know their business - the impact of price rises , whether volumes drop and people no longer send cards because of the postal cost etc - much better than we do.

Either they factored that in and decided to protect their market share (?) or they screwed up in allowing profits to halve.

Neither is a good look.

Since they also started manufacturing their own cards , perhaps they need the volume to hold up to ensure the production cost per card does not rise and cause them more problems...

[fenners66] 01/11/2024 09:56

bbonsall - I will take your analysis of a litmus test of the general public's understanding of the budget.

So their increase is as you said gross 16.3% and assuming they are earning 20 hours a week (so not even a full time example) then
their gross rises to £200 from £172 - BUT ;and its a big BUT; previously all their earnings were under the weekly limit of £175 so the company paid no Ers NI on their wage at all.
Now though the limit will be cut to £96 a week and the £104 is liable for Ers NI, which has gone up to 15% so £15.60. Lets say the employee gets the minimum 3% contribution to a pension so that has gone up slightly and it adds up to an increase of £44+ a week or in this example 25.1%

The damaging part for the young is their wages can easily bring them into Ers NI now - long known as a "tax on jobs" and for the inexperienced if they are going to start costing as much as anyone else - let someone else train them.

Reeves has used the detail in reducing Ers threshold to charge more for almost all employees but some are much higher % cost than others

[greyingsurfer] 01/11/2024 09:56

Similar things were said when the minimum wage was first introduced. And they didn't happen. There may be some short term impact, but a situation where taxpayers have to subsidise employers who don't pay people a living wage, by funding benefits is not sustainable.

[fft] 01/11/2024 09:51

You may be right regarding the price increases. But they didn't do it earlier this year when there was a large increase in min wage. Why not ? I think most investors are now sitting this out to see what Mgmt next step is. This whole young people increase will greatly reduce apprenticeships and the like and also temporary jobs. I think the govt has shot itself in the foot unless its aim is to keep young people underemployed.

[bbonsall] 01/11/2024 09:39

If CF increased the price of everything by 10%, nobody would notice and it would bring in more than £50 million. Enough to cover increased costs and leave some for the bottom line too!

[bbonsall] 01/11/2024 08:51

To fenners66 post 6951

This is my analysis for 18-20 year old.

For 18-20 year old
£8.60 increase to £10 per hour for minimum wage.
Extra NI is 1.2% of the full £10. Which is 12p
So increase cost per hour for employer is £1.52 on £8.60.
So percentage increase is 17.6%
How do you get to 25% please?

[caveater] 01/11/2024 08:50

Traditional cards/gifts are here to stay. Emails have their place, especially with younger generations. Postage costs might be an issue, but I think most people give cards by hand and if sent they send by second class post usually, which is a lot cheaper than first class. Pleased CF is holding steady today. Looking forward to what management have to say about USA/AUS and how they are going to get this show back on the road.

[pugugly] 01/11/2024 08:36

If you cannot afford a card better than nothing and could be cheaper than a phone call but Skype possibly better than all.

[muffster] 01/11/2024 07:49

Hopefully employers will use more salary sacrifice to.reduce their ni costs CarsBikesPensionsEtc

[pugugly] 01/11/2024 06:56

prokartace - Because the consumer will have more important things to buy and likely default to email or copy a card from the web, print and send. QED.

[prokartace] 01/11/2024 06:35

I don't understand why it isn't a simple task to pass on increases to the consumer. Clearly the competition will be so this means that CARD will continue to be cheaper than the opposition. Minimum wage goes up, prices go up. Status quo

[seroserio] 31/10/2024 14:34

fenner
No probs -I must have Davius filtered so didn't see it.
edit
I will need to watch out for that - my filter list is in the 100s ;-)

[fenners66] 31/10/2024 13:18

I have run some numbers on the wage cost implications for minimum wage for 18-20 year olds

I don't expect that will impact Card much except for maybe around Xmas's

But from April 2025 an 18-20 yr old on 20 hours a week without pension cost (which would be a bit more)
will increase by 25.6% !

In other words employers will have to think twice
No future experience being gained
No future employment for some.

[fenners66] 31/10/2024 13:14

seroserio
That earler post had already been corrected - which is why I already added the amount
see
>Davius
>31 Oct '24 - 09:00 - 6932 of 6949

XD today.

Hence why your reposting of the XD looked like trying to find an excuse if you had just missed
the earlier post , well I take back the comment..

[harry_david] 31/10/2024 13:02

NI increase sounded very modest when she spoke but the increase % according to the FT is enormous. This applies particularly to retail chains

[fft] 31/10/2024 11:43

Normally I would agree, but my calcs earlier today had an extra cost of about 23m wages and NIC for year ended jan 2024 compared to y/e Jan 2023. That came in at 143m. That is the base line.For year end Jan 2025, I am expecting a further 15m on top to 158m. H1 has already been reported at 64.4m.And for year end Jan 2026 when yesterdays increases will be felt, I am pencilling in wage costs/NIC of about 12% higher at 177m. Ouch....

[s34icknote] 31/10/2024 11:33

Pe of ten 105p

[s34icknote] 31/10/2024 11:31

Normally second half earnings are twice the first six months ! Cause if Xmas .So my moneys on 10.5 p eps for full year

[brucie5] 31/10/2024 11:16

Well that's me out - ouch. and it was supposed to among my growth ideas! Having said that I'm to watch to see how far these drop as I continue to think there's a solid business here, albeit with some headwinds. It may well fall to deep value levels again. The 90 level seems well and truly broken so I see 80, followed by 70 as natural points of support.

[fenners66] 31/10/2024 11:02

bbonsall
"The market seems to think it is nearly as bad as Covid when all stores were closed and it was making large losses. Now it is making, and will continue to make, goood profits and generate cash and pay dividends. Ridiculous reaction."

I wondered already how they compared and looked at the chart

Its nothing like !

Covid low bobbled around 30p
2022 bobbled around 40p

85p is over 100% higher - the question is really what is the profit going forward and I would guess at the moment the first half may be repeated next year and the second half is going to have an unknown impact.

Its going to be worth trying to work out what a lower base year equates to and trying to value that as a p/e

[seroserio] 31/10/2024 11:01

Just correcting an earlier post. Grow up.

[fenners66] 31/10/2024 10:58

seroserio

that one has been tried already

Isn't that XD 1.2p ?

And the share price is down 5.5p

Try harder