Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

[34adsaddsa] 25/4/2022 16:09

They need to take advantage of this China trouble to close an acquisition. Once China gets its act together with a vaccine I think the oil M&A market will get much less attractive. It's over a year since Egypt and it's time they got their skates on. It also needs to be producing assets, not exploration. We have enough of those.

[nigelpm] 25/4/2022 09:03

Quite the contrary - buybacks are made for days like these!

[silverstone1] 25/4/2022 08:55

THE BUYBACK PROGRAMME IS A WASTE OF $200M! WHY DON'T THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS WAKE UP AND PAY A $200M SPECIAL DIVIDEND INSTEAD OR BETTER STILL, A $560M SPECIAL DIVIDEND INSTEAD, SO AS NOT TO WASTE THE OTHER $360M AS WELL?

[rogerlin] 24/4/2022 21:17

Thanks for the rig info xxnjr

[nigelpm] 24/4/2022 11:55

Agree with that log in usual situations but I don't regard this as usual given the return of 1.06bn from GOI. As I've noted on a few occasions this is a balance sheet investment with the exploration and assets thrown in for next to nothing. Of course if everything else ends up being worthless then there'll be little upside here but I think that would take some doing. Even a pharos type outcome would be very hard to "achieve" but of course not impossible. Investment as you well know is about the balance of risks and rewards. I maintain we are firmly skewed to the reward side here. I do accept many of the bearish takes here but I'd put them at less than 5% chance.

[loglorry1] 24/4/2022 11:25

Buy backs way below NAV make sense. Way below net cash make more sense (but that's not happening).

NAV is a contensious issue as a bbls in the ground are quite different to $cash on the balance sheet.

I don't think it is any more complex than that. If the remaining assets are worthless or cash generated from them are gobbled by G&A then the naysayers are right about the buy back to some extent.

I very much doubt anyone who posts here has a clue which version will hold true. I doubt anyone at CNE does either. Too many external factors. Having said that management have made some half decent calls in the past Fwiw.

Why are the agonising over this?

[nigelpm] 23/4/2022 09:33

Quite yas but that's exactly what they set out in recent presentations - they do of course need to execute on it - let's hope they are more successful than Pharos have been to date at least.

[oilinvestoral] 23/4/2022 00:59

Hi Yas Totally agree! The company needs to deliver operationally and not just try and increase by cannibalising themselves with these ill judged buybacks! I totally predicted Nigel's "hot take" a few days ago in post 6934 when I said "When the share price tanks the posts are along the lines of "yaaaaay we get to buy more of our own shares"" LOLThat's the level of drivel this BB has descended to beggars belief! Lol

[silverstone1] 22/4/2022 22:30

THE CONSOLATION OF A SUPPORT LEVEL DIDN'T LAST LONG, LUCKILY THE TENDER OFFER GOT ME OUT WITH A PROFIT AND I'M RUNNING THE REST FOR FREE, BUT THE BUYBACK PROGRAMME DOESN'T FEEL LIKE A RETURN OF CAPITAL BECAUSE MY SHARES ARE DECREASING IN VALUE, WHEREAS A $200M SPECIAL DIVIDEND INSTEAD WOULD HAVE THE OPPOSITE EFFECT!

[yasx] 22/4/2022 19:48

Nigel,

From the Co's perspective it is better to buy back as cheaply as possible - the lower the price paid the better.

But, in order to induce a more meaningful rise aside from the buyback they will need to demonstrate that the assets are productive and/or make a reasonable acquisition(s).

[nigelpm] 22/4/2022 19:39

Thoroughly disappointing week but that's what happens when investing. The buyback will be kicking in once again - better to buyback at £2 than fair value of £2.50+ Have a great weekend folks and stay drivel free! ;-)

[yasx] 22/4/2022 16:49

Back near the lower end of the range...

[anley] 22/4/2022 13:28

Thank you so much XXNJR that starts to solve joining up the dots.

If Deltic/CNE eventually come up with good gas pools then it may stretch as far as the Pensacola licence creating huge reserves..........

[xxnjr] 22/4/2022 10:14

Will be Valaris 123, see p6 of


Rig currently about 10 miles off Rotterdam.

[rogerlin] 22/4/2022 09:21

I have not been following closely but just spent a few minutes trying to find the rig details, it seems remarkably obscure. I think the Jaws duster was drilled by the Valaris 122 which has now gone on to drill the Edinburgh prospect P255 30/14a which is on the median line with Norway, which looks about right for the rig position. That will take months. So I don't think the Valaris can be drilling either Diadem or Pensacola in Q2 22, it must be another rig.

[silverstone1] 22/4/2022 08:01

THE BUYBACK PROGRAMME PURCHASED 90,492 SHARES YESTERDAY, THEREFORE, MEANINGFUL QUANTITIES ARE STILL ONLY BEING PURCHASED UP TO 200P, AT LEAST WE HAVE THE CONSOLATION OF A SUPPORT LEVEL!

[anley] 21/4/2022 17:41

A change of topics please:

Remember Cairn entered in to a JV with SHELL on two drills.

The first drill was a duster and so the rig went on to the 2nd drill but there has been no news as it must be presumed that the drill is ongoing.

TWO questions:

1 Does anyone know the name of the rig and if so could they post the name on this BB?

2 Has anyone heard if the drill in question will be going to drill on the Deltic/Pensacola/Shell area of the Southern North Sea?

Deltic and Cairn have another 5 licences to work on over the next year so there could be lots of activity going on.......let us hope so.

[silverstone1] 21/4/2022 13:45

OILINVESTORAL, CNE RECEIVED A TAX REFUND OF $1.06BN AND MOST PRIVATE INVESTORS HAVEN'T RECEIVED A PENNY AS THEY EITHER DIDN'T PARTICIPATE IN THE $500M TENDER OFFER OR THEY TENDERED ABOVE STRIKE PRICE BECAUSE MOST PRIVATE INVESTORS DON'T KNOW WHAT THEY'RE DOING, SO IT WOULD HAVE BEEN FAIRER TO PAY THE ORIGINAL PROMISED 77P SPECIAL DIVIDEND TO ALL SHAREHOLDERS, BUT THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS DON'T CARE ABOUT PRIVATE INVESTORS!

[oilinvestoral] 21/4/2022 13:28

Back comes the drivel. I give up.

[nigelpm] 21/4/2022 12:49

Just on novice's point the board actually answered the question on whether capex would drown FCF and the expectation is it won't. Depends on liquid prices of course but anywhere north of $80 they'll be generating lots of cash. I note with interest we are back to the levels of last week in a hurry - still rolling through the unsatisfied selling demand of the tender I'd think. Would expect to see more chunky buybacks coming into force shortly.

[sunnykyli] 21/4/2022 11:39

Glad to all CNEand reinvest in AAL

[oilinvestoral] 21/4/2022 11:35

I totally agree silverstone! What I don't understand is , why not at least do a small dividend (not necessarily the 70p you and others were asking for) just enough to attract some income investors! The more this goes on the more I think what an own goal management have scored ! SMH What would happen if oil falls 10-20 dollars (which is not beyond the realms of possibility)? I hope everyone attends the AGM and let's them know how they've performed! The price stalling and lack of movement on share buyback seems to have sent some of the drivel we've seen into the wilderness. How long that lasts I'd not care to guess.

[silverstone1] 21/4/2022 08:00

THE BUYBACK PROGRAMME ONLY PURCHASED 21,649 SHARES YESTERDAY, THIS HALF-HEARTED EFFORT PROVES THAT CNE DON'T THINK THEIR SHARES ARE WORTH PURCHASING IN MEANINGFUL QUANTITIES ABOVE 200P AND REGRETTABLY, THE MARKET APPEARS TO AGREE!

[novicetrade68] 20/4/2022 23:37

The point being raised about Egypt is whether Capex + G&T is going to drown FCF - in theory that should be unlikely imo, based on 43,000 WI bopd + 40% oil of their annual production, yet operating costs being low for now, and CAPEX estimated at $190m. G&T is around $50m from last year. Revenues are somewhat of a mystery, both including and excluding 60% gas sales, estimations run probably between $627,800,000 & $2,750,000,000 going forward for the full year by the looks of it.