Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[davydoo] 15/9/2010 15:40

I agree. It would make sense for CLA or AVAP to buy back CLA shares in the market at this discount to NAV.

[gosgos] 15/9/2010 15:37

Thanks dd I had missed that - it seems fairly encouraging in that someone is clearly prepared to pay the 14.5 for the stock. That volume could have trashed the price if there had not been a pre-arranged buyer

[davydoo] 15/9/2010 14:03

Big trade on this yesterday. nearly 600,000 sold. Approx 0.5% of the co. Strip out Avation, its 1% of the remaining shares in issue, take out the other major holders, and its nearly 10% of the remaining shares.

Wonder if we'll see any annoucnements in the next few days

[davydoo] 01/9/2010 17:32

I bought on a T20, so i'll sell some more Avation next week to cover it and continue my rebalancing between AVAP/CLA. Also good to take some profits from Avation, as most of my buys were in the low 30's.

[gosgos] 01/9/2010 16:22

excellent ;-)

[davydoo] 01/9/2010 16:02

Yes a buy, it was me :)

[gosgos] 01/9/2010 15:45

I guess that 20,000 must be another buy? Feel sorry for person selling at 10.5 yesterday!

[gosgos] 01/9/2010 09:03

Completely agree on all counts. If I had plenty of spare cash I would buy more but the time horizon for exit needs to be at least a couple of years to be certain of a decent valuation (in my view). The price will respond either to corporate developments and/or a general upturn in aircraft leasing.

Otherwise management will just let the business get more valuable month by month and seem to be doing their jobs pretty well.

So not a trading stock but certainly one that I expect to make a nice return on one day. Hopefully we will both make a packet ;-)

[davydoo] 01/9/2010 07:38

I had a look at the CLA numbers again last night, tried to look at it as if Avation were just a fund holding 51% and I was assessing CLA on a standalone basis, and i'd buy. The profits theyre making, and the residual value, and remaining life in the 2 A321s is massive at the end of the lease terms. I think theres a very good risk/reward balance now with shares well below NAV.

Also, Id forgotten that all the directors exercised options at 24p only last December, when the business was no different to now (in fact balance sheet is now 9 months better) and yet now you can buy for 15p ish. a 50% plus upside back to 24p

A small sale at 10p yesterday, so any new investor may have to be prepared to wait a while to get out.

[gosgos] 28/8/2010 18:58

At some point they will be able to pay higher dividends once they enter into new leases. I think the main market would naturally give them better liquidity and a more accurate valuation provided they increase their capitalisation to a point where they get noticed. Otherwise the main exit would seem to be a sale to a larger leasing company.

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 17:56

Thanks Davydoo - I agree but eventually we need a wider appreciation so we have someone to sell to ;-)

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 16:57

Well something interesting happened today, but im not quite sure what. Total of 335,000 traded.

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 12:51

btw on a cash flow basis the valuations of CLA and AVAP look about the same to me

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 12:49

Interesting! I suspected as much since bid/offer ticked up not down but good to know for real. I can't see why Avation would pay cash for CLA shares except as an alternative for small holders. Obviously this is all highly speculative but the main reason to move AVAP from Plus would seem to be as part of a new equity raise. Merging CLA and AVAP at this point would also seem to make sense UNLESS there is a problem getting the institutions to agree on a valuation of AVAP and CLA equity.

Either way I like having a position in both since I think both are under-valued.

Fingers crossed ;-)

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 12:16

OK i now know that trade this morning was probably a buy, despite being way below the buy price, because i've just bought some myself at a similar price.

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 12:09

Good point. Any ideas how they might do that?

AVAP arent going to want to overpay for the CLA shares they dont already own, but to complete the deal i guess they'll have to overpay the market price or swap for Avation shares, which if better 'value' would be poor use of their paper(ive long questionned why they werent buying shares back) So the comparitive value analysis we've been doing is very releavnt.

You have made me think now. A holding in CLA though could be a great little arbitarge opportunity at best, and at worst a good hedge. Interesting.

[gosgos] 27/8/2010 12:01

Certainly not ;-) I am hopeful that any move by AVAP to the main market would also mop up CLA's listing and that AVAP will need to pay more than the current share price both due to Net Assets being over 20p and original equity raise being at 24p.

[davydoo] 27/8/2010 10:55

A trade, a trade, CLA had a trade! A small sale that seems to have moved the price up a little, but its the first one on PLUS since March.

Cashing in a few Gosgos?

[davydoo] 25/8/2010 17:44

Glad youve found it Gosgos. Its by no means an active board, but a few regular posters if you can wade through my occaisonal rambles.

[gosgos] 25/8/2010 13:49

Thanks Davydoo - hadn't realised there was an Avation thread but have found it now!

[davydoo] 25/8/2010 07:56

Thanks Gosgos

Yes i still hold a lot of Avation shares. Have you seen my post on the Avation thread about a reserach note from Loeb Aron?

I think the Loeb Aron note is much more realistic, GE&CR have consistently been over bullish, and always seem to value the co at the value of its fleet, ignoring debt, which doesnt seem right to me, beacuse althought the debt will clear the aircraft will be worth less when it does.

Loeb Aron also speculate more about the move to the main market and possible full merger with CLA.

Avation have risen, and CLA havent, and I think theyre getting to close to equal value at last.

[gosgos] 25/8/2010 07:42

Hi Davydoo
Are you still in Avation? GE&CR have published a new note:



which is as you would expect positive. Reiterates the story quite nicely and suggests a healthy £1.50 value