Celsius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[kdixon148] 15/7/2010 14:32

So what happend ?

Was there nothing left for the shareholders?

[gosgos] 14/7/2010 08:10

Hi Davydoo
Yes I am still invested in all 3 on the basis of fundamental value for AVAP and CLA and good performance metrics for SKYW. These are long term holds for me though since it is practically impossible (for me at least) to read the short term market.

[davydoo] 13/7/2010 11:23

Gosgos are you still invested in CLA? the share seems to have entered another hibernation period, although I guess most of the shares are held by the major shareholders who arent trading.

Any thoughts on the relationship between CLA, AVAP and SKYW? AVAP has risen as SKYW has fallen, which i think is due to the high costs that SKYW are bearing to bring on the new A320, once they add more planes that initial investment will pay handsomly. I still think Avation is slightly the better prospect, but with the tax issue looking clearer in Aus and SKYW reporting good figures today, SKYW might be the best short term play.

[gosgos] 30/4/2010 19:26

I should have made clear I was referring to the upward move in Avation. I assume the original benefit of CLA was the equity investment from 3rd parties so I guess some of it will depend on whether they think it worth raising fresh equity or debt in which case CLA may be a more attractive prospect for new money then Avation. Hard to tell but I have to say Jeff Chatfield seems to be doing everything right from an operating perspective, it is just not reflected in the leasing vehicles valuation. I invested quite late in Skywest itself and am already sitting on a healthy profit. When they move I think they will move quickly.
Best

[davydoo] 30/4/2010 18:18

Hi Gosgos

It seems to have gone quiet with CLA,I havent seen many trades recently and certainly no news.

With Avation setting up MSN 429 to buy their A320 i am wondering about the plans for CLA. However I think the original plan was for Avation to do the leasing to Skywest, and CLA to other airlines, so maybe we'll see CLA used again.

I presume they will. because their balance sheet is just improving all the time as debt is paid down.

[gosgos] 26/4/2010 20:30

Dear all
Nice to see an upward move. I have read that the leasing market is re-opening with at least one new major fund being raised. Hopefully CLA will resume its upward path as well ;-)

[davydoo] 17/3/2010 20:44

I think we'll see that price again zchan1, my analysis has Avation valued at 118p

Im sure 'the market' see aviation as a risk, then consider Skywest as a small aviation company a greater risk. For me its the opposite, Skywests success and expected growth add security for me.

I also like what I call the currency daisy chain here; Skywest receive highly regarded Aussie dollars for their services, then pay their aircraft rentals in depreciating US dollars, which is then transferred to a crippled UK sterling share price and dividend.

Lovely.

[zchanl1] 17/3/2010 20:18

Hi guys

Im a long term holder from 80p of Avation. Sitting on a very unhealthy loss here at present...

Must agree the fundamentals look strong still for all three companies - hoping that in a few years time when the market picks up properly then buyers will return in all shapes and sizes.

Good luck one and all

[davydoo] 17/3/2010 20:10

Nope it wasnt me, it was a decent size buy though.

I've decided not to add any more, no matter how undervalued I think they are, I need to make sure I keep a balance across my holdings.

[gosgos] 16/3/2010 14:38

Amazing - someone other than me has bought some! Was it you davydoo?

[davydoo] 03/3/2010 21:06

I've e-mailed Jeff Chatfield before, i was very impressed by the speed and detail of his response, and ive seen other people on the Avation board say the same.

Ive had similar problems as you in the past, i tried to buy 10,000 shares when the price was about 35p and my broker came back with something like this...5000 shares for 35p, 3000 shares for 38p and 2000 shares for 40p. I've no idea about going straight to those companies to source shares. I know Loeb Aron have their own holding, and some of the 3% plus shareholders are directors of WH Ireland

I really dont think it would take much demand to see this soar back up to previous levels. Its amazing to look at the Avation share price pre CLA when it just had a few Fokker 100s leased to Skywest.

I think youre right about a possible interim dividend, i seem to recall it was suggested in broker forecasts and research (paid for by Avation) back in '07 and '08 and I once saw Jeff Chatfield interviewed re Skywest and he seemed a big fan of dividends.

One thing that gave me confidence in the past was considering what a tiny new company Avation was Credit Suisse and Lehman (pre collapse) had major shareholdings, and in the background now is bennelong asset management, with i think a CFD interest in about 17% of the shares.

Hopefully Avation interims will follow very shortly

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 18:35

btw I had an email conversation with Mr Chatfield today about the difficulty of buying Avation in volume and he suggested trying WH Ireland, Loeb Aron and Hargreaves Hale.

I know you like Avation (as do I). I bought a few more Avation today as well. You never know, they may introduce an interim dividend as well as a full year one. Now that would be nice ;-)

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 18:28

Hi Davydoo
We seem to have this board to ourselves. Given that it is at a similar level as the previous year and also that the same was true (e.g. similar levels 2009/2008) in the full year accounts but at about 50% of the half year level, I would guess that it may be due to deferred income.

But that is only a guess.

[davydoo] 03/3/2010 18:05

Something else i noticed was the diluted eps being equal to the basic eps which suggests there are no more outstanding share options, and we know that this years options were voted down at the agm. This was always a niggling worry to me as an Avation shareholder that somehow Avations share of CLA would be diluted below 51% unless they bought additional shares in the market.

Whilst i like the principle of management being incentivised with share options, I always find it makes the understandig of accounts a lot harder, and adds an uncertainty about the ongoing issuance of further options in the future.

I have one concern though, the high amount of 'trade and other payables' within the current liabilities at $4,734,102 what is that? I assume some is payables due on maintenance, but as their is no purchasing/stock issue for CLA (they own their planes) then what is this figure for?

any ideas Gosgos? or anyone else reading this board?

[davydoo] 03/3/2010 17:44

hope you found yourself entertaining this morning Gosgos :)

I agree the results look ok. As expected really, the same as a year ago, with a few tweaks due to exchamge rates and maintenance income v claims. Without any new planes, im not sure why some people were looking for more, or expecting a continuation of last years growth rates.

The stand out to me was the absence of a referral to the $100m facility that they secured but never actually used, and that always used to be mentioned in their results. This is where future growth will come from, leveraging the existing assets. I wonder if this is linked to why Avation are buying an A320 with vendor finance instead of CLA.

20% plus on your investment already! mustve been a good day for you.

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 11:24

and I calculate the NAV per share as 38.4 US cents or 25.6p. Right not posting any more as I seem to be speaking to myself ;-)

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 07:46

Yes Net Assets still going up as expected with long term debt dropping by $9m. Only variable element is lower maintenance revenues which fluctuate for reasons outside the company's control

Looks a good long term hold to me ;-)

[gosgos] 03/3/2010 07:31

Well they look ok to me....

[gosgos] 02/3/2010 19:38

Roll on the interims...btw I am now invested in SKYW as well so I am 3 for 3

[davydoo] 02/3/2010 19:13

I noticed, if it didnt take much to pull it down, then I hope for your sake with that 12.1p purchase it wont take much to pull it back up either.

[gosgos] 02/3/2010 15:34

Inching up a halfpenny at a time ;-)

[davydoo] 27/2/2010 21:38

I have a similar outlook holding Avation. I have re read both sets of accounts several times, and make sure Im aware of things at Skywest (where im also a shareholder) Thomas Cook and US Airways.

I agree with your point about about brokers sourcing a buyer for a major chunk of shares, but maybe theyre put off by Avation holding 51% or that as an industry there are lots of airline leasing co's for sale, e.g. ILFC potentially and RBS Aviation

I worked out some simple numbers for someone on the Avation board, and I now think CLA is at the right price in relation to Avation, and that theyre now both undervalued, instead of my prior opinion that just Avation was undervalued when CLA was at 60p

I completly agree with your long term basis, that if nothing changes, and no new aircraft are bought, then in a few years we have a zero debt co. holding aircraft with value. That adds a lot of security for me.

I also like that revenue is in dollars, and not pounds, as we benefit from a declining pound.

[gosgos] 27/2/2010 13:15

Specifically on the further falls, it would be consistent with a sizeable seller wishing to exit and being unable to, however what does not quite make sense about this explanation is:
i) why wouldn't the company's brokers get involved in trying to source a purchaser outside the market (this would be normal in my experience) and why wouldn't they be successful
ii) what stock are the MM's using to satisfy the small purchases that take place at these levels
I would love to know exactly what is happening. I have seen plenty of examples recently of small caps getting very cheap and then bouncing back rapidly on news. However there is always the risk that there is something really wrong!
I keep everything crossed ;-)

[gosgos] 27/2/2010 12:02

Well when it halved I bought more after having read the accounts from cover to cover again. I have been buying all the way down, since on a long term basis I think the value must be in the 50p-60p range minimum based on the fact that their lease arrangements cover their debt and leave them owning the aircraft debt free in a few years time.

I worry about the risk of it being taken over at an artificially low valuation but can't see why that would be in Avation's interest unless it was Avation buying it back (and I hold Avation too). Hopefully I am not missing anything!