Camellia Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/6/2023 21:04

Won't they need a waiver from the takeover bods before they can buy back shares or have they already got that?

[eezymunny] 06/6/2023 18:15

All very gloomy here. Yes, the apples malarkey was awful but you´d hope lessons learned etc. You all talk like a repeat is nailed on.

80.4m for BF&M (less 10 for taxes etc? we don´t know precise number) is 70m
Linton Park for sale at 30m

FRom 30/6/22

Net current assets 81m
Bio assets/bearer plants 113m
Land/Buildings 56m
Financial assets 33m
Heritage Assets 9m

All pretty clean assets, albeit some maybe hard to crystallise at book. But BF&M proceeds + Linton + NCA is bigger than market cap by the looks. What a nonsense..

TBV about 370m here? Market cap only 160m.

As I said I think they should, and probably will, buy back shares all the way up to 8 or 10 quid a share. Any sane company director would do that while this is so cheap, rather than splurge on other assets IMO.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/6/2023 17:46

Hi CJohn

I'd also be happier if they sold off the agri businesses. I do wonder though whether they'd have trouble repatriating the cash back to the UK given that they all seem to be in the developing world and I don't know what taxes or capital controls they may be subject to.

In all honesty I'm not sure why I ever bought these; I don't expect to lose money but I can sometimes be a bit too much of a sucker for a discount to TNAV. I could have probably got a bigger discount and a better yield investing in a number of other asset plays.

[cjohn] 06/6/2023 17:19

Hello Arthur and others,

Well, having sold BF & M, which has occasionally contributed handsomely to profitability, they are going to find it increasingly difficult to be profitable. A bunch of low margin agri companies is never going to be a huge profit generator.

Their understanding of risk is incorrect, to put it mildly. Yes, the results of certain sorts of insurance companies like BF and M are VOLATILE, but volatility isn't the same as RISK, particularly if you have a well-capitalised company like CAM that can survive across the insurance cycle.

Of course, tiredoldbroker, we all know that ANY significant asset sale at or above book value is (apparently) positive for shareholders, given the huge discount from TBV to market cap. I can't believe there is a single shareholder here who's bought the Company on the basis of its tight run profitable operations. We are all awaiting asset sales and BF & M's was well-signposted.

Likewise for opposite reasons, any asset purchase is a clear negative for CAM shareholders, unless at a huge discount to the acquired companies' asset value. This is compounded by the fact the management have demonstrated an outstanding inability at valuing potential acquisitions. The English apple company was a disaster waiting to happen.

That is why I say any asset sale is "apparently" positive for shareholders. It depends what they do with the 80m. It should be simply given back to shareholders as a return of capital.

Unfortunately, a significant part of it is likely to be wasted pursuing the high-risk, low return strategy of "diversifying" in the agricultural sector. This is not diversification; it's throwing good money after bad.

Forgive me being dyspeptic, given the decent price realised for BF & M. I'd be far happier if they'd flogged off some of the hopeless unprofitable agri companies.

[1tx] 06/6/2023 17:05

I do n't know what part if any Gordon Fox (whose former shares are the Swiss Charitable Trust ) will play in the reinvestment of capital.He is 93 now and of course put this company "together" over many years,hopefully he will be looking an investment that will provide a useful income for the charity.

The shares are still modestly priced albeit with good reason until we see progress.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/6/2023 16:50

If I try to look at this a bit more "glass half full" I suppose with over 50% of the shares very tightly held and unlikely to be sold back to the company a buyback may actually help shift the price up a bit. Although of course that would just strengthen the controlling shareholders hand.

On another note, I was looking at the headline figures for the last five years and it seems that profitability has dropped off a cliff in the last few years. Does anyone know the reason for this? I would have thought demand for agricultural produce would be fairly consistent from year to year.

I know there are all sorts of factors at play, the weather, blight, third world politics etc.

[piedro] 06/6/2023 16:12

tob,

What were your points?
Perhaps you could refresh our memories by reposting.

[tiredoldbroker] 06/6/2023 15:04

Well, I think the points I made on 1/2 Sept last year have been proven reasonably correct :)

[crumppot] 06/6/2023 13:20

Arthur AGREED!

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/6/2023 12:57

The only problem is they're planning on investing most of the cash back into agriculture and if the purchase of Bardsley is anything to go by the cash should be given back to shareholders and the Board put out to pasture.

[value hound] 06/6/2023 12:37

Excellent news, v big in relation to mkt cap. As ever, worth a shedload more, but charitable trust presence always tempers judgement

[eezymunny] 06/6/2023 12:15

Good news.



Long live value investing and all who sail in her. A huge win coming methinks. They should have started a buyback a long time ago. Luckily they didn´t and I bought barrowloads at silly prices. Common sense finally prevails. I´d keep buying back shares until they are 80 quid a share.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/6/2023 12:14

I suppose I should be pleased but I expect they'll blow all the cash on lemons

[cjohn] 28/5/2023 20:47

crumppot16 May '23 - 10:45 - 444 of 445
Need to go the AGM to put our points across 8 June at the Goring Hotel London!


Yes, agreed.

If I can get over to England, I'll go.

I've already voted against Director re-elections and remuneration.

They need to understand that they have to start taking note of shareholders.

[piedro] 17/5/2023 15:36

Learning from Kakuzi perhaps

[crumppot] 16/5/2023 10:45

Need to go the AGM to put our points across 8 June at the Goring Hotel London!

[34adsaddsa] 15/5/2023 19:19

But they won't. They'll keep it for "general corporate purposes" or they'll buy another gem like Bardsley.

[crumppot] 15/5/2023 09:22

What happens when they sell the headquarters building? Surely they should pay a large dividend!

[cjohn] 15/5/2023 08:50

Bardsley: the management making idiotic acquisitions in low return, risky agriculture businesses.

It was never going to end well.

[crumppot] 13/5/2023 18:35

Definitely

[34adsaddsa] 13/5/2023 16:58

The whole company should be liquidated; but it won't be.

[1c3479z] 12/5/2023 07:38

their apple diversification to try to obtain UK earnings is a failure and that's after selling some of their also failing engineering uK businesses,
always considered the supermarkets were far too powerful in negotiating the apple price- they've put the price up 25% in store and given the grower 0.8% this year according to Farmer's today on R4 this week...

[russman] 12/5/2023 07:09

I have just received their annual brick.
An administrative nightmare, gave up counting associates.
Highly inefficient consolidation; tax problems estimated at £12mn.

[russman] 06/5/2023 07:45

44m in cash
sell the properties, sell the Chairman's "collection".
Now the radical suggestion.
Bulk Kakuzi up as a consolidator & give John Kibunga Kimani a seat on the Board, Ethics Compliance Director.

[1tx] 05/5/2023 10:25

Thanks EezzyMunny for giving details of Linton Park;When the estate round the house was sold in 2015 I had not realised CAM was the buyer;this as indicated makes the property far more valuable even if there is a shortage of dodgy Russian buyers at present!

The Bardsley Apple purchase was a total disaster.My understanding is that much of land used is leased this could lead to us paying rent for years in addition even if growing ceases.

I have a modest holding here bought fairly recently at sub £50;but even though the book asset value is vastly higher & the real cost for example of replicating the Tea Estates would be astronomical unless these core businesses actually make a return it is at moment difficult to justify a higher share price even if the value of potentially sellable surplus parts like land,property & investments comes close to present market value.