Cambium Global Timberland Share Discussion Threads

[moonblue38] 13/10/2004 14:16

theberg - 13 Oct'04 - 13:31 - 13922 of 13967


Hopi,

Why has David Beck Ham got a Ishtar Tatoo on his neck and why did he boot the ball over the net versus Portugal?

[energyi] 05/8/2004 11:03

CONTACTS...
1)
FIM Services Limited, Glebe Barn, Great Barrington,
Oxon, OX18 4US Tel: [phone] Fax: [phone]
2)
Tilhill, Pale Estate Office, Llandderfel, Bala,
Gwynedd, LL23 7PS, telephone number: 01678 530206.

[energyi] 05/8/2004 10:57

GLOBAL FORESTS...

60% of the world's forests are broadleaves and 40% are coniferous. Coniferous forests are concentrated in the northern hemisphere; Russia, North America, Scandinavia and Europe. These coniferous forests, in temperate regions, provide the principle feedstock for timber based industries in the industrialised countries. It is generally believed that the annual increment in temperate forests exceeds the annual cut of timber.

However, the division of the forest resource into exploitable and unexploitable is at best an inexact science. As a result, the theoretical potential cannot be realised due to environmental demands on the forests and logistical constraints.

The United Nations' assessment is that exploitable forest in temperate regions totals 898 million hectares out of a total of 1,433 million hectares of closed forest.

46% of the exploitable resource is in the former USSR. The assessment fails to take into account the lack of infrastructure which makes exploitation difficult throughout much of the country.

In the USA, which has 22% of the exploitable resource, 210 million hectares, only 14 million hectares are classified as unexploitable. It appears likely that this grossly under-estimates the impact of environmental and conservation pressures which are restricting the harvest of wood from old growth, natural forests in the Pacific North West. This trend is also gathering momentum in Canada and Europe

@:

[energyi] 20/7/2004 13:02

FORESTS, Comparison

Woodlands for Sale
FIM are currently marketing for clients the following woods:

# Name---------- Location--------------- -Size- Price/Old- Per ha
Wales
1 Cloverhill.... Haverfordwest Pembroke. 43.6ha £110K 130K £2.52K
2 Craig Coppice. Llanfyllin.............. 6.8ha £ 30K .... £4.41K
3 Gallt Senna... Cenarth, Ceredigion.... 31.3ha £ 60K. 90K £1.92K*
4 Pennal........ Gwynedd................ 78.9ha £279K .... £3.54K
5 Rhiw Saeson... Llanbrynmair,Mach.Powys 20.6ha £ 40K .... £1.94K

Scotland
6 Cobairdy ..... Huntly, AberdeenshireL1 28.4ha £ 95K .... £3.35K
7 Cobairdy ..... Huntly, AberdeenshireL2 88.2ha £275K .... £3.12K
8 East Hareshaw. ??????, Lanarkshire.... 39.8ha £ 50K .... £1.26K

England
9 The Lynes..... Brampton, Cumbria...... 108.6h £180K .... $1.66K
SOLD: Gallt.Senna (Jul.04:£1.92K?)
- - - -
@:

[energyi] 20/7/2004 11:39

OVERALL MARKET Size

GLOBAL RESOURCES

Total global forest cover is estimated by the Food & Agricultural Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) at 3.5 billion hectares excluding open woodlands; 54% being tropical forest and 46% temperate.

60% of the world's forests are broadleaves and 40% are coniferous. Coniferous forests are concentrated in the northern hemisphere; Russia, North America, Scandinavia and Europe. These coniferous forests, in temperate regions, provide the principle feedstock for timber based industries in the industrialised countries. It is generally believed that the annual increment in temperate forests exceeds the annual cut of timber.

However, the division of the forest resource into exploitable and unexploitable is at best an inexact science. As a result, the theoretical potential cannot be realised due to environmental demands on the forests and logistical constraints.

The United Nations' assessment is that exploitable forest in temperate regions totals 898 million hectares out of a total of 1,433 million hectares of closed forest.

46% of the exploitable resource is in the former USSR. The assessment fails to take into account the lack of infrastructure which makes exploitation difficult throughout much of the country.

In the USA, which has 22% of the exploitable resource, 210 million hectares, only 14 million hectares are classified as unexploitable. It appears likely that this grossly under-estimates the impact of environmental and conservation pressures which are restricting the harvest of wood from old growth, natural forests in the Pacific North West. This trend is also gathering momentum in Canada and Europe.
(More: )

A)

Imports & Exports of Wood & Wood Products...

Year--- SoftWd HardWd Panels +Paper +Pulp RcvdP TotalWood
IMPORTS
2002... 16,137. 1,945. 7,940 15,429 6,940.. 211.. 48,602
EXPORTS
2002... .. 819... 208. 1,576. 3,354... 23 3,442... 9,422

The UK imported 48.6 million cubic metres (wood raw material equivalent) of wood and wood products in 2002. Exports were 9.4 million cubic metres (WRME).

Source:

- - -

B)

FALLING NUMBER OF UK SAWMILLS... Down Dramatically!

Based on all the 2002 survey responses, together with data from previous years for those who did not respond for 2002, it is estimated that there were 242 sawmills processing British timber in 2002, of which 151 produced at least 1,000 m3 sawnwood.

(Note: England/Scotland/Wales total sawmills down to 242 from 482 in 1994!
England sawmills is down most, from: 321 to 139!, that's -57%)

[energyi] 19/7/2004 16:06

.

UK Timber Prices...

Yr Semi.A Aver. R.'96 defl. Nm.'96 Real
90 mar-90 15.14 19.51 0.776
90 sep-90 15.48 19.16 0.808
91 mar-91 13.75 16.44 0.836
91 sep-91 11.06 12.83 0.862
92 mar-92 11.21 12.63 0.888
92 sep-92 11.99 13.23 0.906
93 mar-93 12.33 13.43 0.918
93 sep-93 12.68 13.64 0.930
94 mar-94 13.87 14.73 0.942
94 sep-94 15.25 16.09 0.948
95 mar-95 17.28 18.09 0.955 108.20
95 sep-95 17.74 18.31 0.969 111.08
96 mar-96 16.59 16.87 0.983 103.88
96 sep-96 15.97 15.97 1.0 = 100.00
97 mar-97 15.92 15.68 1.015. 99.69
97 sep-97 15.52 15.10 1.028. 97.18
98 mar-98 13.35 12.79 1.044. 83.59
98 sep-98 10.32 £9.73 1.061. 64.62
99 mar-99 £8.44 £7.86 1.074. 52.85
99 sep-99 £7.65 £7.05 1.085. 47.90
00 mar-00 £8.13 £7.41 1.097. 50.91 46.40
00 sep-00 £8.02 £7.24 1.108. 50.22 45.34
01 mar-01 £7.78 £6.96 1.118. 48.72 43.58 : old
-- new --
01 sep-01 £8.32 £7.42 ...... 45.44 40.99
02 mar-02 £7.34 £6.46 ...... 43.22 38.00
02 sep-02 £6.38 £5.52 ...... 36.61 31.67
03 mar-03 £5.69 £4.84 ...... 33.57 28.57
03 sep-03 £5.08 £4.25 ...... 30.32 25.43
04 mar-04 £5.60 £4.65 ...... 32.63 27.08
04 sep-04 -N/A-
Yr Semi.A Aver. R.'96 defl. Nm.'96 Real
Latest:

Basis of Calculation :
The index uses the 12 month period ending September 1996 as the base. The index is constructed using the Laspeyres method, which corrects distortions in the average price caused by variations in average tree size. This enables prices in different years to be compared on the basis of a constant size mix (the size mix in the base year), but does not consider possible changes in quality or working conditions. The average prices and the index are expressed in nominal terms (i.e. the actual prices at the time of sale) and in real terms (i.e. the prices converted to 1996 prices by removing the effects of general inflation). For the real average price and for the index in real terms, the GDP (Gross Domestic Product at market prices) deflator, which is published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), is applied to the prices to remove the effects of general inflation.

SUMMARY: (Issued by: Economics & Statistics)
The main findings are:
• Coniferous standing sales prices in Great Britain were 5.2
per cent lower in real terms in the year to March 2004,
compared with the previous year.
• This continues the downward path in coniferous standing
sales prices, but is a markedly less steep decline than in the
year to March 2003, when prices fell by 24.8% in real terms.
• The average price per cubic metre overbark standing was
£5.60 in nominal terms (£4.65 in 1996 prices) in the year to
March 2004.

[energyi] 19/7/2004 09:44

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[btsuck] 19/8/2003 19:39

t.t.t.
Hi Bri, Hi troubadors, got a link for the new thread
btsuck

[whoopsie] 31/7/2003 23:44

Goodfella,now be nice ! 8)
Started shorting your latest EW stock today...hope it's as subjective in your favour as most your calls! Are you looking at WMPY at all....going nuts isn't it?
W.
PS LOL on Becks Spanish.....Adios

[moregas] 31/7/2003 19:19

well my uncle is in the army..and my brother is sixteen!
(and he's got a pen knife but don't tell the CIA or is it CID?)
:D

[mad4it] 31/7/2003 14:31

lol! gf...you and whose army! ;)

Actually you & I have never had a chat about EW.

You know I respect your views, but having read the various EW counts on the BEAR threads ( strangely it seems the only place to find them!? ) over the last few months the clear impression I got was that nobody had a clue what was going on, even UVC.

I recall most count calls were bearish until very recently.

Chris Locke was 'd'boys' guru, but look at his EW calls recently!

However I would like to learn more about EW so perhaps we can finally have that chat, I will happily be convinced of it's worth if I can see it myself, I try to remain open minded on all aspects of the market, even if it goes against what I currently believe.

[goodfella] 31/7/2003 10:08

theape

From the Pic in the header looks like learn your self Spanish was just to much for Becks

[moregas] 30/7/2003 22:31

I've not seen Cl for .....a good few weeks..I think I've only seen him about 4 times..ever!!

[whoopsie] 30/7/2003 22:15

mad4IT,I didn't see CL predictions before,so missed those good calls unfortunately.I would agree your'e absolutely right on the points above generally,but don't know enough about CL to accuse him personally.EW is way beyond me and I wouldn't even approach it,but still find it interesting to listen to people who do have a handle on it.I wonder if Oyster catcher actually traded those calls though,or whether they are just in-waiting?
W.

[mad4it] 30/7/2003 21:41

whoopsie - lol!

Locke has made some good calls in the past, but the last few months he's been rubbish and it proves two things IMHO:

1) The man is totally intransigent, arrogance and complacency breeds failure in the market, whether you're a bull or a bear.

2) Elliot wave theory is too subjective to be a reliable indicator, especially when a long established trend changes, even if it only proves to be a temporary change (a few months) in retrospect.

[mer0b] 30/7/2003 21:27

mad4it, what are you mad for ?

[mad4it] 30/7/2003 21:24

Locke's 29th of July crash call only has a leeway of " one or two days ", (his words today), so if the market doesn't tank tomorrow it's time we send Nelson Muntz round to give the fat guru a wedgie!