Cambium Global Timberland Share Discussion Threads

[euro99] 30/6/2003 07:54

found and detailed membership application submitted, along with payment in brown envelope:)

oops - wrong club.

[euro99] 30/6/2003 06:45

moregas: How do I get in, assuming you want me?

[lilprinc] 30/6/2003 03:22

The worst risk is not taking one at all. Go after your dreams and goals but don't go it alone. Rely on this great find to help guide you through murky waters. This free newsletter has unparalleled insight and an amazing track record. It helps you pick great shares that you may not have thought about before. It accomplishes this by emailing you when something worthwhile is on the move and worth mentioning. You will not receive any junk mail. Before you venture into those murky waters alone remember that you have something great backing you up. These shares are traded exclusively in the U.S. markets.

[balto] 30/6/2003 01:21

moregas - 30 Jun'03 - 00:17 - 2314 of 2320


Update: wrt Secure Shorters.

I continue to admit known posters. Nobody has been turned away. Still no further votes cast wrt general admission.
--------------------------------

Moregas

I am a "known" lurker; would that qualify???

[theape] 30/6/2003 01:05

i'll keep my tongue in as long as you post.

you've got an opinion, you look at charts, share it.

I'm interested.

post it up.

post it up.

SHARE.

( and its a bulletin board, no one can actually EVER EVER really smash your teeth in. Its sticks and stones). I am interested. Dont lurk, POST.
#

RESTEPCA

[portofino] 30/6/2003 01:04

Morning, this guy posts on one of UVC's "useful sites", and has made some good calls lately.......a little technical but worth a read imo.

SPX for 2003 June 30

Weekly

Technically this past week's long black candle does not make an EVENING STAR because its body was not gapped down from the body of the SHOOTING STAR from the previous week. Also it is technically not an ENGULFING because its open is equal to the close of the previous week. At the very least it is not a bullish pattern!
Friday's weekly close found support at a lower trendline that if broken would be a first sign that the weekly trend has changed to the downside.
The weekly high formed the week of June 20th occurred with a divergence on the weekly TD ROC1 which is bearish.

Daily

Technically Friday's candle did not form a bullish reversal STICK SANDWICH because the close was not equal to the low on Wednesday. However, it is close so it bears watching. Blending the past 3 candles however does not make it into a bullish INVERTED HAMMER so it probably is not a reversal formation.
An open and close lower than 974 would be a downside breakout of a qualified TD Demand Line. If validated the measured move is to 931.60.
TD REI (range expansion index) is oversold and needs to be turned up soon by higher closes or it will indicate that this is more than a correction in the uptrend.
Friday's close broke below a lower trendline (connecting low of March 12 to low on May 20). This is also the downside breakout of a qualified higher level TD Demand Line. On Monday we will find out if it is validated or not. The downside breakout is cancelled IF:
Monday's open is > 982.34 (exit shorts)
Monday's open is > 976.22 and the close is > 982.34 (exit shorts)
Monday's low is > 974.29 (exit shorts)

EWC
Either still in (4) or (5) terminated and we are entering "iii" of 1 to the downside.

For Monday:

It looks as if there could be a corrective rally with a target at retracement of .5=995.29 or thereabouts. My 10-min TRIN and TICK indicators are at levels which increase the odds of a corrective rally over more downside.
However if we go lower than 974.29 in early morning then we are in "c" of (4) for now.
If we go above 978.92 in early morning then I think we will go to 995 as a re-test.

[jpeterki] 29/6/2003 18:19

From GF on ss
"I have been doing a lot of work on the charts this weekend and whilst every commentator I read has us already in Wave 3 down there is an alternate count that has us still in corrective mode with the possibility for both DOW and FTSE to re-test or exceed the highs

I will post some charts up later"

[cymbelline] 29/6/2003 18:16

Sorry about the above post, it wasn't an interpretation but a summary. Obviously it's not enough to go on by itself, but some people are expecting further falls from this point and I thought GF's take on it would be appreciated. Although it's been difficult to get the timing right due to market manipulation recently, I've found that GF has general direction spot on.

I can't bring the whole post.

[paulismyname] 29/6/2003 17:04

PS to my post of 2308, I think both British Energy and QXL may be potential short candidates due to enviromental reasons, debt problems and taxation issues.

It is a high risk short due to the spread and prices on both stocks, but for people dedicated towards the short side of the markets it may be worth a punt. DYOR of course

[paulismyname] 29/6/2003 16:59

Well if GF is thats a sure sign of the pot calling the kettle black! Having said that he did post on another dow related thread saying he was long from time to time, but he remained convinced (until last Friday) the overal trend bias was down.

Having said that of course we can all change our mind as the markets ditate the trend and circumstances do change....

My own view is that we may be in a range bound market.



This is a chart borrowed from Croc, who we all know, that underscores that point. We are moving into the summer months of July and August where traditionally markets are more subdued. Of course like all TA it can be influenced by events which we cannot predict. Only an opinion of course

[isis] 29/6/2003 16:35

Sounds more like the InSecureShorters to me. ;-)

[whoopsie] 29/6/2003 16:31

cymbelline,only trouble with posting snippets from the 'In club'is you can't half follow someones advice.So unless you can get the whole post over,it won't mean much.
W.

[cymbelline] 29/6/2003 15:47

Goodfella has posted on SecureShorters that the Dow and FTSE could retest or exceed previous highs.

[isis] 29/6/2003 14:16

I suppose the best & easiest way for a bull is to carry on buying their favourite stocks & cover by way of a traded Dow/Nas/FTSE put - unlike a spreadbet which tends to be very short term & needs stops on them.
Pesonally nearly all the stock I own is on AIM or Nas which both have seen significant growth this year, but were also hardest hit on the downturn - definately not for safety players but their are some good companies out there.
It would be nice to get the markets back to near normal & concenate on individual stocks ather than bear/bull scenerios - perhaps a little early yet but there are tentative signs.

[energyi] 29/6/2003 13:56

Both BEARS and BULLS can be wrong.

I certainly know that I will be wrong from time-to-time.
And it is not a problem to be "wrong", so long as you plan for it.
(In my view, the first rule of trading is; "ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN")

The trick is, to have a strategy to deal with those moments when
you are not on the right side of the market.

My entire strategy,
as mentioned on the "Time, Gentlemen: SELL" thread,
was to Buy Bear Funds and Long-dated puts, both as a money making
idea (which may start to work now) and as a Hedge for my mining shares,
which were rising in value as the market pushed higher. I have now
lightened up considerably (at a profit) on the mining shares,
and the BearFunds & Puts look like they may come back into profit.

Anyone want to comment from the BULL side
on how you are playing this market, and whether there are some
clever "combined strategies" we may not have thought of.

I do think there is a possibility of an up market if the Dow pushes
above 9100 on Monday morning (NY time) trading. But if it drops
through 8950 or so, that may invalidate that possibility.

[energyi] 29/6/2003 12:21

QUESTIONS FOR THE BULLS

Bonds appear to have made a major top, and stocks have been falling for days.
How do you play this?

Do you have stops in place? If so, where?

What signals are you waiting for to tell you the market has turned down again?

Just curious

[yf23_1] 29/6/2003 01:50

well isis, you are right in supposing that we think we have superior knowledge than the typical bull market bozo, and for good reason.
There have been 6 distinct bottoms since the end of 2000 and yet the bulls have been yakking on and been consistently WRONG.
We now reach the top of the channel in the last bounce and lo and behold the bulls are yakking on again, however this time they seem to be cashing in their chips on the gloating front...
They obviously recognise that a market unsupported by fundamentals but supported by a wall of money with nowhere to go is an accident waiting to happen.
Try inflation adjusting the bottom chart you muppet.

[oospore] 29/6/2003 01:22

Yeah, run away and hide losers!

(ps How do I join?)

[energyi] 29/6/2003 00:22

Don't be "CON-FOUND-ED" by period to 2006-2010

BULLS with no sense of History should LISTEN:

Great Interview/Discussion on FinancialSense.com:


Panel Discussion with Jim Puplava:
and four wise men:
Richard Russell
Kennedy Gammage
Peter Eliades
Tim Wood



Comment: "Greenspan will be Demon-ised"