Caledonia Mining Share Discussion Threads

[papillon] 12/12/2024 00:35

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


6 month CMCL chart. Going sideways hence tightening Bollinger Bands. RSI and MACD look interesting. Worth a punt.

[pj84] 21/10/2024 10:53

Article about China's increasing demand for gold at the expense of the US dollar.

[stemis] 18/10/2024 09:31

There's certainly funding issues to be finalised, but

Bilboe has an NPV (at 10% discount rate) of ~$310m using gold price of $1880/oz and a payback of just under 2 years. Current gold price is now > $2700/oz

According to Learnmonth "if you were to use spot and actually apply a more realistic discount rate, that NPV quickly goes up towards a £1 billion"

CMCL market cap at 1235p is $308m.

If they can pull this off, it's going to be transformational.

[leopoldalcox] 16/10/2024 20:20

19k oz. I expect divi will stand as is - they need to accumulate cash for Bilboes

[mikkydhu] 09/10/2024 18:45

The company should tell us two things soon:

1. quarterly dividend (last year 2nd Oct: 14 cents)
2. Q3 production (last year 11th Oct: 21,772 ounces, a record)

[stemis] 21/8/2024 07:53

Incredible to think that CMCL was double today's price, just over 4 years ago when the gold price was around $2,000/oz. Ok, there's been some dilution (11.5m shares to 19.2m) and some (hopefully, at least in part, temporary) increase in costs of maybe $200-300/oz, but also higher production 55k->75k and ownership of Bilboe. On a comparable basis I'd say the share price should be at least the same level as 4 years ago, not even attributing any value to Bilboe.

[tigerbythetail] 14/8/2024 08:09

Well, I for one am holding back until I see how Bilboes gets funded.
Otherwise, positive. But I need that question answered before putting any money down.

[stemis] 12/8/2024 08:53

I suspect the market is waiting to see how they are going to fund Bilboes...

[pj84] 12/8/2024 08:29

The quarterly results look very positive and surprised there hasn't been more of a reaction.

[jp2011] 10/7/2024 08:33

Shame they don't give indicative ASIC which is probably the biggest driver.

[pj84] 10/7/2024 06:44

Good production update let's hope combined with the high gold price this starts to have a positive effect on the share price.

[trader465] 26/6/2024 13:28

If they achieve an extra $250 per oz on 75koz is $22.5m straight to the bottom line

They’d probably do better with a main market listing

[stemis] 26/6/2024 11:24

Wrt the price, I'd guess the market is uncertain as to how the company is going to fund the Bilboe project. With a peak funding requirement of $309m and a market cap of $184m, it would either require massive gearing or/and a big dilution. The company has said that it's approach would be designed to maximise shareholder value but until they say how, the market is sitting on it's hands...

[trader465] 26/6/2024 10:48

Why is this company so illiquid?

And why is the price down 23% year to date?

[pj84] 19/6/2024 09:02

Rich countries plan to buy more gold despite record price
From the above article

“Around 13 per cent of advanced economies plan to increase their gold holdings in the next year, up from around 8 per cent last year and the highest level since the survey began. That follows the lead of emerging market central banks, which have been the main purchasers of gold since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Meanwhile, a rising proportion of advanced economies — 56 per cent, up from 46 per cent last year — also think the dollar’s share of global reserves will fall over the next 5 years. Among emerging market central banks, 64 per cent share this view.”

and

“The consecutive years of record buying, the pace of which has continued into this year, has been a driving factor behind gold’s rally to nearly $2,450 per troy ounce last month. It is up 42 per cent since the Israel-Hamas conflict began in October.
The dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves — excluding gold — has plummeted from more than 70 per cent in 2000 to around 55 per cent last year, stripping out the effect of US dollar appreciation, according to research from the IMF this month. Including gold, the dollar’s share has dropped below half, the WGC says.”

This should eventually feed into Caledonia's share price.

[stemis] 12/6/2024 13:36

Presentation on Bilboe



The numbers look good at $309m NPV (cp to current market cap of $195m) but it's also worth remembering that we paid $66m for the project in expensive shares. Whether it will all turn out to have been worth it for shareholders will depend on how much of the funding comes from new shares.

[pj84] 03/6/2024 18:47

I must admit I have been surprised with the poor share price recently particularly with the price of gold as well as the recent RNS indicating a payback in 1.9 years meaning 8 years of pure profit after payback.

[pj84] 03/6/2024 18:44

cat33 I know it is free to register but are you able to share any highlights from the letter?

[cat33] 03/6/2024 13:45

Good summary of the latest from Jimhttps://mining.beehiiv.com/p/jims-mining-letter-june-3-2024Worth reading This is going to be hugely profitable

[mikkydhu] 15/5/2024 10:15

One useful piece of information from Monday's results RNS was the production figure for April: 7,956 ounces. Annualised that would be 95,472.

For comparison, these are the figures for April since 2021:
2021: 5,470
2022: 6,797
2023: 5,202
2024: 7,956

Of course, one month may well not be typical; it may include material left over for some reason from the month before. Still, interesting.

[plasybryn] 02/5/2024 10:23

Have you seen the proposed merger between Rockover Holdings and Ariana Resources (AAU) to take forward the Dokwe mine in Zimbabwe?
Sounds like it could be accretive. Any views from experts on investing in Zimbabwe?

[stemis] 10/4/2024 16:59

I am pleased that 2024 production at Blanket has got off to a strong start with over 17,000 ounces produced in the Quarter which, considering we had 8 fewer production days compared to Q1 2023, is an excellent result. With the current high gold prices, it was good to see our gold sales ounces increase by 17% in Q1 2024 versus Q1 2023

Certainly encouraging, but what will count is if they've got costs under control.

[stemis] 23/3/2024 11:26

Indeed, although it's all time high was ~1900p when gold price was lower. Admittedly there has been some dilution since then and inflation in costs, but nevertheless...