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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cairn Energy LSE:CNE London Ordinary Share GB00B74CDH82 ORD 231/169P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -8.60p -4.99% 163.60p 163.40p 163.70p 173.60p 163.20p 173.20p 2,004,938 16:29:42
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 321.7 -992.7 -153.4 - 964.45

Cairn Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 14926 to 14949 of 15050 messages
Chat Pages: 602  601  600  599  598  597  596  595  594  593  592  591  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
06/2/2019
11:33
Brokers and banks have turned bullish on cne. And it's mainly due to the prospect of arbitration win in India. When they drill an exploration well, chance of success is 20% if you're lucky and NPV impact might be a couple of hundred million dollars also if you're lucky. In the arbitration, chance of success is better than 50% and NPV impact could be a billion. It's a pretty unique situation. When you consider all the other positives, cne looks very attractive indeed. Fill yer boots. IMO.
hsfinch
06/2/2019
11:13
Hi Dunderheed. I agree with all your comments about the prospects of Cairn. However, although I very much doubt it, it's possible that the arbitration could against Cairn. Consequently, I have opted for safety and taken my profit. It's likely that I'll buy back into Cairn at some point, as it's been one I've traded from time to time. Good luck to holders.
ed 123
06/2/2019
10:55
Ed I am ambivalent here but do have a few thousand invested in small profit. I intend to hold for a couple of months or more (at least) as really Cairn are in a good position imho. I think they will successfully farm down Senegal post fid so don't really see debt as an issue? Then they've got Me'ico which could be massive? Tight fiscal terms but got to be significantly value adding in the event of discovery? They can swing both ways price wise quite wildly though lol!! All imho and dyor. EDIT then there's India arbitration of course which is potentially a big Brucie bonus!! (Which could "drop" anytime now?)
dunderheed
06/2/2019
10:40
Yes, they are leaving. Declared shorts at or above 0.5% have fallen from about 4.1% four weeks ago to 2.89% today. Some will doubtless have lost money on their shorts. Interestingly, one (Marshall Wace LLP) has gone against the majority and has been increasing the size of its short over this period. A longer term play by them perhaps? Or, possibly they expect Cairn to lose the arbitration? Who knows? Whatever, the size of their paper loss has been growing and they have been actively adding to the size of that loss.
ed 123
06/2/2019
10:17
When is this bloody indian arbitration getting settled? I'm not a chartist but does this look like 2gbp may go then onto 220's quite quickly? R the shorts leaving?
dunderheed
02/2/2019
10:30
roger it does appear to imply that. I for one - not legally qualified but have come across a few of these before in my 'travels' cannot see this 'as is' being legally enforceable. There are precedents that would allow FAR to acquire their respective proportion of equity in the divested stake - but why this is difficult - as I understand it - is that this was 'corporate' wrapped in a company vehicle - hence WPL acquired the company and not just the 'asset'. i.e. there could be a legal argument that the incorporation of the asset was 'unfair / prejudicial' and hence perhaps FAR could have acquired their respective portion of this company? To be really honest though - at the end of the day the govt have ratified this deal hence any arbitration can find what it likes - can it not (?) - the govt then tell it to f off and companies can choose whether to invest in such an environment. From my limited uninformed perspective I think FAR are onto a loser here if they think they can buy the whole lot - as this would still require govt approval that they are 'able' operators - but of course they will have very well paid barristers who obviously advise differently and again from my perspective perhaps they 'may' be able to acquire their respective proportion of COP's share - which if found in that manner and legally enforceable will simply lead to an offer from WPL to compensate FAR for this 'loss'? I also think FAR are just chancers, (very good ones lol but they will be burning a lot of bridges by following this action....) All imho of course and as ever dyor!!!
dunderheed
02/2/2019
09:45
Thank you rogerlin
inntolife
02/2/2019
09:34
https://stockhead.com.au/columnists/tim-treadgold-failure-creates-an-opportunity-in-far/ Wording here seems to imply all the COP stake but not sure if that is right.
rogerlin
02/2/2019
07:57
FAR can only actually gain their respective (proportional) equity share of what WPL acquired from COP not the whole amount acquired surely? Ie 1/6th of the 40% sold? I don't think they have a "right" for the whole amount?
dunderheed
02/2/2019
01:38
Re: Senegal, FAR trying to claim the pre-emption rights without obvious access to funding either means they have lined up an interested party, but if so they would also require the ability to design and manage the development which cuts down the options considerably. The other option is that they are trying to provoke Woodside into bidding for them. I favour this latter option. Can anyone suggest another scenario for FAR's approach?
xxx
31/1/2019
09:28
Not sure what to make of that snippet. Preliminary hearing in July? That's when Woodside said they expect FID. But they'll never make FID with ownership in doubt. So will FAR delay FID? They're a minnow with $30million in the bank. They'd drop the case in a flash if Woodside give them some money. But Woodside are tough. So this is shaping into a mess. India is still the biggie. IMO.
hsfinch
31/1/2019
08:05
FAR Q4 update mentions their arbitration re pre-emption rights in respect of the Conoco/Woodside deal and ends up "The tribunal has scheduled a hearing on the preliminary issues in July 2019".
rogerlin
24/1/2019
08:07
Surprised to see cne fall. Talos well result in block next to cne is positive for cne. And India arbitration result is getting closer by the day. Maybe Indian dudes in the know are selling. Watch like a hawk.
hsfinch
22/1/2019
16:15
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-change-in-substantial-holding.4576383/ Can't find anything new on the FAR/Woodside arbitration, but see there is a fund holding 15% of FAR. Could Woodside buy out FAR to resolve the nuisance? The price of FAR has fallen since the failure at the Samo well in the Gambia, which was thought to be a sure thing because it is close to SNE.
rogerlin
22/1/2019
11:43
Looking good. But should up more on possibility of positive Indian arbitration result. When I say up more, I mean up 50p instead of measly 5p.
hsfinch
22/1/2019
09:50
Ed123 imho that's what I like about CNE. It seems to be a bit of a "momentum" play and if u catch it right it can be good? I personally think it's got a bit more to go bwtfdik?!
dunderheed
22/1/2019
09:42
Yes, the FAR and Woodside dispute continues, which doesn't help sentiment or any potential farm down ambition. When that is settled and the arbitration outcome is known, then Cairn will be easier to value and less prone to volatility?
ed 123
22/1/2019
09:22
I don't want to forecast prices as its a mugs game but if Brent continues upwards so should Cairn? If it breaks 2 quid then you'll have the technical crews all over it up to 2.4 quid? Lol. R they officially mktg SNE yet? I assume they're waiting for FID. COP sold for very low price I thought and there is still ongoing arbitration around this isn't there? Apologies if I've got that wrong.
dunderheed
22/1/2019
09:22
The shares are pricing in part success in the arbitration proceedings
frazboy
22/1/2019
09:16
If Cairn is to be kind to its shareholders it's going to come from exploration success, rather than development projects. Imo, they need to farm down Senegal. With the Mexico exploration later in the year, Brent at $62 and Cairn nudging 190p, perhaps the shares will level out now?
ed 123
22/1/2019
09:09
Shame the Mexico stuff seems to be pushed back a little and no Ireland news (also as an eog holder regrettably!!).
dunderheed
22/1/2019
09:08
Exactly from somewhat bearish to at least "not bearish" now. CNE will "swing" with the oil price now unless a game changer explor comes in? Also may coincide with expectation of Indian tribunal decision although that means f all to me as see that as being only symbolic imho!!
dunderheed
22/1/2019
09:03
Yes, all as expected. They have another year before the funding of Senegal development becomes an issue? They will be looking at a variety of solutions. I think the market would like some certainty. A small proportion of the shorts have been covered but the rest remain in place. I wonder if these built up mechanistically (following algorithm) or if there is some more fundamental reason? What has changed since these were 140p? Only the oil price? Maybe that's it; a bit more oil price sensitive due to its Senegal exposure?
ed 123
22/1/2019
08:43
All good here? Potential capital crunch a coming but have a feeling the FD will have this covered. This is a good bet imho.
dunderheed
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