Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

[last of the mohicans] 01/12/2023 08:02

That is not a good operations update that has been released this morning but the article doesn't appear here !

Sadly for those still invested here production well below guidance of just 30,000 boepd is going to send this much lower

More later

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 30/11/2023 16:56

Hi suetballs,

Good luck to you to,

I'm totally out at the moment to, but I will be buying back in at the right time & price. As a see fabulous value & potential here.

LOTM

[suetballs] 30/11/2023 10:31

I sold out a few days ago - I only had a £2k holding left anyway.
Just got tired of the whole mess.
Good luck to those who remain.
Suet

[last of the mohicans] 30/11/2023 10:15

Well this should have been the day we were all looking forward to !

The update on Egypt, sadly its on hold for several more month's.

GLA

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 25/11/2023 21:53

Company Website has been updated today to reflect the share ownership as at 17th November rather than 3rd November (that was a very quick update). It also crucially shows us the shareholdings the day before Goldman Sach's disposed of 4.6945% of Capricorn's shares.

This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 94.168M in issue at that date, ( Although I'm not convinced its totally accurate as seem to include stock they've borrowed & others don't)

Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 17,699,205 18.77% was (16.96%)
Newtyn Partners . . . . . . .. . 2 2 12,354,001 13.10% was ( 9.33%)
Palliser Capital . . . . . . ... 3 3 7,431,767 7.88% was ( 7.86%)
Kite Lake Capital Management . . 4 4 7,163,629 7.60% was ( 7.58%)
Irenic Capital Management . . .. 5 5 6,136,349 6.51% was ( 6.49%)
Dimensional Fund Advisors . . .. 6 7 4,154,447 4.41% was ( 4.49%)
Vanguard Group . . . . . . . .. .7 8 3,948,378 4.19% was ( 4.18%)

Total = 62.46% down from 67.29% on 3rd November & down from 62.59% on 20th October as well.

As you can see only 7 names this time round !

Bank of New York Stocklending . . 6 6,063,656 6.41% was ( 6.31%)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch . . 9 3,769,531 3.99 was ( 3.97%)

Are missing since 3rd November yet we know from Morgan Stanley's documentation that there holding never went down only up on 20th November ( it could be listed here under Bank of New York Stocklending instead if Morgan Stanley is part of that company)

Clarity is needed regarding why NO Merrill Lynch declaration of falling below 3% especially as they are carrying out the share buy-back


--------- 3rd November comments --------


Very little in the way of changes over the 2 weeks other the the significant increase in the Goldman Sachs holding that we knew about, an increase in Bank of New York stocklending & a drop in the Vanguard one.

Note the very slight changes in the other holding %'s is due to the effect of the buy-back over the 2 week period.


----------------- old stuff ---------

So we have a new name on the list Bank of New York Stocklending collateral account - No hiding what that account is all about going by its "STOCKLENDING" rather appropriate given how much stock is currently on loan to the 4 longs.

Madison Avenue Partners who were previously 5 6 6,233,034 6.55 have now left the building 20th October ( for now at least) - yet have not submitted any holding notice to say they are now below the 3% threshold.

Morgan Stanley don't show up on the list yet they only reached the initial threshold on 13th October 6,377,792 shares or 6.718569% & there has been no notice to say it's gone below 3% again

--------------

Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the co

Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 24/11/2023 00:38

I know there's been so many but I'm guessing most of you didn't pay much attention to Wednesday afternoon & Thursday morning's holding announcements ?

If you had then'd you'd have seen the massive changes that occurred on Monday the 20th November. A day when all of 125,190 shares changed hands through the LSE & Capricorn themselves accounted for 13,531 of that volume.

On the 20th November Goldman Sachs reduced its actual physical shareholding in Capricorn from 13,196,084 shares to 8,773,980 in other words a sale of 4,422,104 shares. They also reduced there indirect holding from 5.48% of the company to 5.41%

So in total there holding went from 19.49% to 14.73% in just one day.

So where did those 4,422,104 shares or 4.6945% of the company go to ?

Well Morgan Stanley (who don't appear as such on the Major shareholders list) on Thursday morning reported that there direct holding in Capricorn had risen from 6.718569% to 8.478502% on that day an increase of 1.76%

So where has the other near 3% gone ?

We're yet to find out .......

------------------------

What's clear from all of the above is that the vast majority of daily trading in Capricorn shares is happening completely out of our sight - on the Dark web or where ever.

The LSE is totally irrelevant when it comes to Capricorn & that sadly is scary.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 21/11/2023 10:54

Hi finkie,

Yes the buy-back is still continuing & will do for some time. They still have about £6.3M to spend on it which is about @ $7.75M.

They should get around another 4M shares at these prices.

You'll be back in long before me then at £1.45 because I don't currently intend to be paying anything near that price for mine.

We also hit a new 52 week low, which we knew was coming.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 21/11/2023 10:47

Company Website was updated yesterday 20th Nov to reflect the share ownership as at 3rd November.

This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 94.391M in issue at that date, ( Although I'm not convinced its totally accurate as seem to include stock they've borrowed & others don't)

Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 16,030,686 16.96 was (12.23%)
Newtyn Partners . . . . . . .. . 2 2 8,816,666 9.33 was ( 9.29%)
Palliser Capital . . . . . . ... 3 3 7,431,767 7.86 was ( 7.83%)
Kite Lake Capital Management . . 4 4 7,163,629 7.58 was ( 7.55%)
Irenic Capital Management . . .. 5 5 6,136,349 6.49 was ( 6.47%)
Bank of New York Stocklending . .6 6 6,063,656 6.41 was ( 6.31%)
Dimensional Fund Advisors . . .. 7 7 4,239,865 4.49 was ( 4.47%)
Vanguard Group . . . . . . . .. .8 8 3,948,378 4.18 was ( 4.47%)
Bank of America Merrill Lynch . .9 9 3,769,531 3.99 was ( 3.97%)

Total = 67.29% up from 62.59% on 20th October

Very little in the way of changes over the 2 weeks other the the significant increase in the Goldman Sachs holding that we knew about, an increase in Bank of New York stocklending & a drop in the Vanguard one.

Note the very slight changes in the other holding %'s is due to the effect of the buy-back over the 2 week period.


-------------------------------- old stuff -------------------


So we have a new name on the list Bank of New York Stocklending collateral account - No hiding what that account is all about going by its "STOCKLENDING" rather appropriate given how much stock is currently on loan to the 4 longs.

Madison Avenue Partners who were previously 5 6 6,233,034 6.55 have now left the building 20th October ( for now at least) - yet have not submitted any holding notice to say they are now below the 3% threshold.

Morgan Stanley don't show up on the list yet they only reached the initial threshold on 13th October 6,377,792 shares or 6.718569% & there has been no notice to say it's gone below 3% again.
-------------------------------------
Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the company.

Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.

LOTM

[finkie] 21/11/2023 10:35

They are still buying shares through the buy back, I will be back in around 145p

[last of the mohicans] 21/11/2023 10:09

Just did a dummy trade for 5,000 shares & I can get them for £1.4824 but not interested at that price.

I have put in my 1st limit order but it's set for a lot lower than than.

GLA

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 18/11/2023 10:32

Well I got a bit of a shock yesterday when I totalled up all my Capricorn trades.

1st thing on 6th October my CNE trading over recent months had led to an overall banked gain of £6,227.75 & I still had 16,666 post consolidation shares in my account which had a further unbanked gain of @ £858 on them.

By the time I had sold them & the other 39,334 shares I'd acquired since then, that gain of over £7,000 had turned into an overall loss of £2,999.49

If I hadn't got out of most of my holding at an average of close to £1.635 I'd be looking at an additional loss of at least £4,000 & rising by over £500 for each additional £0.01 fall.

If it goes to £1.50 as I'm pretty sure it will, that would have been another additional loss of £3250 ( So £7250 on top of the £3,000 I currently have)

I will be back in but only when the risk / reward looks right to me.

GLA

LOTM

[p6r0] 15/11/2023 23:18

It beggars belief that a legal contract negotiated between Capricorn and Woodside Energy ,is so one sided! Whoever advised and negotiated for Capricorn, should surely be made accountable?
It appears that all of the risk has been accepted by Capricorn (risk of non payment by Woodside if Senegal doesn't come on stream by an agreed arbitrary date! Yet any taxes payable from the sale of the PSC's is also born entirely by Capricorn.) It seems that this agreement was excellent for Woodside and appalling for Capricorn.
To be honest, I am surprised that there wasn't a larger reaction to the news, the fall in the share price would seem to indicate that the market doesn't consider that the Senegal tax authorities claim to be entirely legitimate?(Another India?)
I really hoped that there might be a change in fortune here after disposing of the previous BOD, but it appears that their legacy still lingers!

[last of the mohicans] 15/11/2023 23:02

churchill2,

This wasn't on the table last week, Woodside only notified them about the issue on 14th November (ie yesterday)

The postponement of the Egypt update has something to do with discussion with the Egyptian Authorities (according to the visible text in that article I posted about)

hxxps://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/capricorn-energys-egyptian-gamble-talks-with-authorities-delay-update

Sadly I can't access the rest of it :(

So 2 set-back inside a week :(

Plus the other thing I'm watching tied to Capricorn in some ways suffered a significant setback and it will be quite a few weeks before news on it now becomes available.

So I'm sitting on the sidelines now just watching to see how things develop, if it drops to a price where I like the risk reward again then I'll start to buy-back in, but until then there are just far to many unanswered questions for me. So I've taken a big hit £'s wise for now by getting out.

Good luck to you & everyone else in the meantime.

LOTM

[churchill2] 15/11/2023 20:18

At least it clears up the reason for the cancellation of the end of month update. Senegal has gone from a improbable payment from Woodside to Capricorn to a possible long drawn out legal saga over a disputed payment to their government.

[last of the mohicans] 15/11/2023 15:47

Buy-back should be significant today .......

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 15/11/2023 13:34

The other piece of news I've been keenly waiting on has also been delayed for weeks now as well.

Not a good last week regarding Capricorn stuff for me :( I even happened to go out this morning during the time when the announcement was made. I just can't seem to time things right at all.

Good luck to everyone

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 15/11/2023 13:20

The Senegal announcement is not good news

What a total disaster area the old board of directors seem to have been. I hope they can be held accountable through there salary bonuses or share schemes for any money that Capricorn might end up having to payout.

Any thing they have should be suspended until the matter is resolved. Everything they touched was a disaster area.

Were the company notified about this before (under the old board) & just ignore it & didn't notify shareholders about it ?

Just a stream of unanswered questions come to mind as to who knew what when & what the legal costs alone might be defending this.

I have sold the rest of my holding in the meantime until the dust settles on this at a substantial loss.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 14/11/2023 09:01

By Capricorn's standards that was a pretty decent buy-back effort yesterday for a change.

They have bought back 947,537 or 0.9972% of the shares since it resumed on 6th October.

So they'll break the 1% mark today hopefully & possibly make the 1M shares number tomorrow!

For the record - I reduce my holding again yesterday at what turned out to not be very good prices in the mid £1.63's. As I see far more downside risk at the moment than upside potential short term

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 10/11/2023 13:55

An article from 2022, worth a quick read

hxxps://egyptoil-gas.com/features/building-on-egypts-oil-gas-potential-an-interview-with-eleanor-rowley-capricorn-egypts-managing-director/

Sadly I can't get to this article .....

Global web icon
egyptoil-gas.com
hxxps://egyptoil-gas.com/news/el-molla-emphasizes-commitment-to...
El Molla Emphasizes Commitment to Sustainability at Egypt Oil
WebNov 5, 2023 · This came during his opening speech at the 9th Egypt Oil & Gas Convention, ... Capricorn Review Western Desert Exploration Potential. 31st October 2023 ... El …

& what happened on 31st October ! :(

Maybe someone more tech savvy than myself will be able to see what it says .....

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 10/11/2023 12:55

Starting to join the dots now .........

"Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Tarek El Molla emphasized the oil and gas industry’s commitment to sustainability and decarbonization, acknowledging the ongoing challenges in securing sustainable energy sources.

This came during his opening speech at the 9th Egypt Oil & Gas Convention, held under the theme ‘Driving Sustainable Growth in Egypt’s Oil and Gas Industry’, which is taking place from November 5th to November 7th, at the InterContinental Citystars Cairo Hotel.


--------------------------

Note the timeline - 5th to 7th November, so Capricorn could well have had meeting with the minister or officials at the Convention & not got the answers they were looking for....... hence the announcement on 9th November

--------------------------
Just found this as well

hxxps://egyptoil-gas.com/news/el-molla-reviews-capricorn-energys-ep-plans-in-egypt/

Which show's Capricorn with the minister on 19th June 2023 as well & Capricorn is in the top status group of international O&G's working in Egypt.

For the record - I Have liquated half my holding for now.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 10/11/2023 09:35

Just found this by chance when looking for something else!

They seem to know more than we do !

hxxps://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/capricorn-energys-egyptian-gamble-talks-with-authorities-delay-update

LOTM

[suetballs] 09/11/2023 13:38

Well I knew I hadn't got a clue and now the Board seems to be in the same boat too.
Suet

[last of the mohicans] 09/11/2023 08:53

hmm was really looking forward to that 30th November update, so not best pleased especially when its being postponed for so long.

Is there more to this than meets the eye is the question.

We now have no possible news catalyst for several month's now, which will not bring in any new PI's nor will it help create volume for the buy-back either.

So a double whammy

LOTM

[suetballs] 08/11/2023 15:26

I haven't a clue what's going on here.
With a 19% shareholding Goldman surely must?
Suet