Capricorn Energy Share Discussion Threads

[aspect100] 19/10/2023 02:55

LOTM

I'm not much concerned about the price drop recently,as I'm going to use the dividend to buy more.

This is going to be a great investment eventually,especially if the oil price stays up.

The Egypt assets are not even in the price - best oil stock on the market at the moment.

The two others I like are ENQ and TLW

[last of the mohicans] 19/10/2023 00:18

Someone asked me a question on another BB & I thought it might be of interest to some here as well.

The buy-back trades themselves.



Is a good one to view, what it tell's us is that the buy-back trades are all marked AT on the LSE, Merrill Lynch are not usually the 1st trade in a sequence of trades all with the same time stamp, only part of the bunch turns out to be for the buy-back & they are literally all on the sell side register when you view them here on ADVFN.

So anything with an O isn't them, nor is anything on the buy side either, which means I now know what to look for much more clearly from now on :)

So the AT buy's are likely to be the insto's who are trying to build-up there positions like Goldman Sach's etc. Trying to make hay while they can.

There was hardly an O trade today, I think 20 in total inside normal trading hours & the largest of those was a 2,000 buy with only 3 other trades above 1,000 shares in size. So virtually no PI involvement/interest either way.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 18/10/2023 11:34

Company Website has finally been updated to reflect the share ownership as at 6th October.

This is name, new position, old position, number of shares & percentage owned of the 95.224M in issue at that date

Goldman Sachs collateral account 1 1 10,647,270 11.18
Newtyn Partners 2 2 8,816,666 9.26
Palliser Capital 3 3 7,431,767 7.80
Kite Lake Capital Management 4 4 7,163,629 7.52
Madison Avenue Partners 5 6 6,233,034 6.55
Irenic Capital Management 6 5 6,188,126 6.50
Dimensional Fund Advisors 7 7 4,335,427 4.55
Bank of America Merrill Lynch 8 8 4,312,448 4.53
Vanguard Group 9 9 3,985,847 4.19

So Irenic Capital's holding was down by 0.31% from that of 8th Sept, Vanguard was down a tiny amount.

Blackrock used to own 3.13% as of 8th Sept so they have clearly fallen below the 3% threshold since then, yet no notification of such has been issued to the company.

Centiva Capital who had acquired the voting rights to 3.01% of the company around the 22nd Sept don't show on the list & we know Bank of America have a far larger holding in the company's voting rights than is listed above, but the record seems to only show shares owned not actual voting rights.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 17/10/2023 17:59

Biggest closing auction since the buy-back re-started so hopefully Merrill Lynch managed to do there job properly this time round & bought back at least 80,000 shares today, maybe even 100K, as they are already way behind in getting that $10M spent before the end of the year.

They've only bought in 369,965 shares so far when they really should be north of 500K already out of the 4.5M+ there on target to currently buy-back (more like 4.8M+ at current prices) which will be closer to 5% of the company rather than the current projection of 4.73%.

Munch munch

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 17/10/2023 13:56

hmm I'm not sure it will push on in the meantime finkie.

Only when insto's have got the position's they want to be in.

We know 4 of them are long the stock & they are competing with the buy-back for available stock.

I'm sure some Shareholder's are also waiting for there dividend payment to come through before they re-invest it back into shares as well. Mine will be going into another trading parcel for sure.

I'm happy for the share price to stay where it is for now even although I'm sitting on paper losses, as long as the buy-back gets munching bigger chunks of shares than its currently doing. Simply because lower price means more share bought back. More shares bought back means higher payouts per share further down the line.

LOTM

[finkie] 17/10/2023 09:59

Nice to see 170.5-171 push on now boys.

[last of the mohicans] 16/10/2023 15:47

Goldman Sach's continue to increase there overall voting interest in Capricorn time & time again.

They own most of it then they seem to sell it but not the voting rights then they buy it back & slowly but surely there interest in Capricorn grows & grows.

There are 4 institutions out there who have bought the voting rights to like 19% of the company that they don't actually own !!

Still not sure how that is possible with no-one supposedly shorting it !

LOTM

[finkie] 13/10/2023 15:29

Just bought a trading portion here at 165.5p I can see short term upside from here and hopefully quite quickly back to 180p. Cheers

[last of the mohicans] 12/10/2023 14:49

I clearly got this wrong, the old trading range is being re-tested on very light volume.

I will need to totally re-assess how I'm going to play this trading wise going forward.

Especially since 4 Insto's are long the stock, maybe they are behind the tree shake as they try to turn indirect holdings into direct ones.

Still waiting on the top shareholders data being updated following the consolidation.

Hopefully the buy-back gets to fill its boots for the day at these low prices & gets 75K+ of shares. All of which will help keep the average purchase cost down & means more shares will be retired by the end of it.

Which means better returns for everyone later on.

LOTM

[aspect100] 12/10/2023 10:06

There are most likely not many in public hands,as it only takes a few small trades to move the price - up or down.

[last of the mohicans] 11/10/2023 07:41

I'm not a chartist or anything like that, but going by the chart in this thread, Capricorn has moved above its 50 day MA & is about to move above its 100 day one as well.

We also seem to be in a trend of higher low's & higher high's for now.

So will be trading it with that in mind as the old trading range is broken for now.

I bought 3 decent sized lots yesterday in the £1.83's lets see how it goes as I try to increase my long term holding of Capricorn.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 10/10/2023 16:40

aspect100

It certainly does.

Especially if your G&A costs are down $50M a year.

Inside 4 year's they'll have saved the current market cap of the company.

LOTM

[aspect100] 10/10/2023 16:27

LOTM

You're right that every company situation is different,and some more complicated than others.

I think Capricorn has a much better future now.

[last of the mohicans] 10/10/2023 15:52

Hi aspect100

BP & Shell have destroyed an incredible amount of share holder value over the years & never been held to account for it, with the way they've done share buy-backs - they buy at the top & issued stock in the form of dividends at the bottom of the cycle etc.

Each buy-back situation is different & you need to look at them in isolation. Sometimes equity is the dearest form of debt a company has & by buying back the shares ( & thus not paying the dividend on them ) its actually better than paying down the debt.

Sadly I don't think Capricorn can just pay off the debt, otherwise I'm sure they would. They've set a matching sum of cash aside to cover it. I guess it might all be tied into how the Egypt purchase was structured along with Cheiron in the first place.

They did re-pay $33M in the 1st half of the year & are due to pay another $20M inside 12 month's. Which will take it down to virtually $100M.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 10/10/2023 15:44

Wow what is going on with these institutions!

Palliser has now managed to get the voting rights to 2.35% of the company in addition to the 7.8% they have held steadily for month's now.

So 4 Institutions have now bought indirect holdings in Capricorn, who on earth is lending them there stock ?

I guess that's 4 Institutions that see upside potential here.

LOTM

[aspect100] 10/10/2023 14:50

I don't think companies should use cash for buy-backs,if there is debt - why not pay off as much debt as possible?

In this link,I was amazed at how much BP has used for buying shares this century($61 billion),and yet borrowed to pay the dividend - not something that is easy to figure out.

hxxps://www.ajbell.co.uk/articles/investmentarticles/122442/share-buybacks-pros-and-cons

[last of the mohicans] 10/10/2023 11:37

controllemadness,

If you look at the half year accounts, you'll see the CAPEX & G&A costs in there.

Yes there is a further increase in the net receivables number because of overdue payments from EPGC, which is not great.

However there was still enough cash filtering through from Egypt to roughly match the expenditure's (to within $5M over 6 month's) that occurred in the 1st half & that includes several significant one-off sums.

There is absolutely no need for them to increase debt, they are paying it down when its due from the cash set-a-side to do so.

Hence no need to include it in my last post.

LOTM

[controlledmadness] 10/10/2023 09:51

LOTM
I am not sure of your logic.
I do not see the outgoings side of the cash you are considering.
There is still capital expenditure and admin expenses to take into account and any financial and tax costs which will eat up the cash if there is no release of what is owed.
If no release then debt will increase.

[last of the mohicans] 10/10/2023 02:48

So that's another step of the transformation process complete. while another starts back up (the share buy-back).

Market cap is now under £172M or $212.5M & net cash at 20th October (assuming the cash position hasn't changed since 30th June other than for the special dividend & share buy-back)will be ($176 - $100 - $3.4 [on buy-back to 4th August]) $72.6M - (current buy-back amount - lets say they spend $1.6M by then) so $71M in cash.

There is still another approximately $8.4M to go on the buy-back after that leaving a cash balance of roughly $62.5M when all said & done.

Shares in issue should have fallen to a fraction under 91M when the current buy-back finishes assuming the share price averages £1.90 during it ( around 90.76M if average is £1.80).

At £1.80 the market cap would then be £164M or $205M, or at £1.90 it is £172.9M or $216.1M

So current net cash ($62.5M) will still account for 28.9% or 30.5% of CNE's market value.

Note net receivables (receivables - payables) for Egypt at the end of June were $108M ($144M - $36M) as well.

LOTM

[last of the mohicans] 09/10/2023 01:21

Silverstone1

Congrats, you've obviously done very well out of CNE with that very well timed initial purchase & tendering the shares at the right price in April 2022.

Why are you not using the Capricorn Energy thread rather than the Cairn one for postings?

Originally you used to hold 0.1707% of the company (1M out of 585.667M) now its 0.0884% (84,160 out of 95.224M) although that will start to increase as the buyback starts back up.

Hope to see you post on the other thread ! :)

LOTM

[silverstone1] 08/10/2023 15:17

MY CNE SHAREHOLDING EXAMPLE:
999,990 BOUGHT AT 125P IN AUGUST 2021
(732,180) ACCEPTED TENDER AT 223P IN APRIL 2022
267,810 NEW SHAREHOLDING IN APRIL 2022
267,810 SPECIAL DIVIDEND AT 115P IN MAY 2023
(141,570) 33 FOR 70 CONSOLIDATION IN MAY 2023
126,240 NEW SHAREHOLDING IN MAY 2023
126,240 SPECIAL DIVIDEND AT 56P IN OCTOBER 2023
(42,080) 2 FOR 3 CONSOLIDATION IN OCTOBER 2023
84,160 NEW SHAREHOLDING IN OCTOBER 2023

[last of the mohicans] 06/10/2023 08:49

Hi aspect100

They closed at roughly £1.80 yesterday, so 3 x that is £5.40 less the £1.68 (3 x£0.56 in dividend) = £3.72 divide by the 2 new shares = £1.86 which is where it should trade to have the same market cap as yesterday less the £80M ( $100M ) that the dividend cost.

The buy-back should now start up again.

The turnaround has started, the company is being transformed, but it might take a little time to show up in the numbers.

LOTM

[suetballs] 06/10/2023 08:43

Is anyone considering putting their dividend - on receipt - back into cne?
Suet

[aspect100] 06/10/2023 08:39

I think these ex dividend shares will go up to 246p.

[last of the mohicans] 06/10/2023 08:37

Ok I spent the evening re-doing all my old trades & working out my net position ahead of the new shares trading.

Total banked profit so far £5786.88

With 25,000 shares still held at an average cost price of £1.7205.

This will become 16,666 shares at a new average cost price of £1.7408.

The old trading range that has been working from £1.73 to £1.80 recently will no doubt change following the consolidation & the return of the share buy-back program.

So I'll have to find a new trading range / strategy going forward as I try to increase my overall long-term share holding further. First immediate target is to increase the 16,666 to 20,000 by the end of 2023 solely funded from trading profits.

Once of course I'm actually able to trade the shares again !!!!

LOTM