Cairn Energy Share Chat (CNE)

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Type	Share ISIN	Share Description
Cairn Energy	LSE:CNE	London	Ordinary Share	GB00B74CDH82	ORD 231/169P

	Price Change	% Change	Share Price	Bid Price	Offer Price	High Price	Low Price	Open Price	Shares Traded	Last Trade
	+0.00p	+0.00%	173.90p	173.80p	174.10p	-	-	-	0	06:34:02

Industry Sector	Turnover (m)	Profit (m)	EPS - Basic	PE Ratio	Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers	0.0	-122.7	-13.4	-	1,014.25

Cairn Energy Share Discussion Threads

Showing 14476 to 14499 of 14500 messages

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Date	Subject	Author	Discuss
11/8/2017 16:22	I figure you two are watching the other BBs, and if so saw the post about FAR trying to offload their stake. No takers for their 15% for $300m (apparently). I've been trying to figure out what their (FAR's) game plan is with respect to the pre-emption rights, perhaps they want simply to delay the process to buy time as they can't stomach the field development. However, as the Edison analysis shows, FAR's valuation looks excessive in comparison with Cairn, so I'm not sure what the market would think if they were to sell out. All speculation. Have a good weekend.	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
07/8/2017 17:03	http://www.far.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/20170306-FAR-Investor-Update.pdf Maybe it is an elephant Ed 123, it's figured in this presentation by FAR (Slide 14) and in the Cairn April 2017 Investor presentation (Slide 12) as some way north of Sirius so maybe the sands could thicken up there, but the cross sections in both presentations are east to west and so not very helpful (there seem to be quite a lot of sand layers too!). But I don't think they are going to drill any more for a while. CNE will want to conserve cash and Woodside can scarcely be expected to rush about now FAR have started arbitration on pre-emption rights.	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
07/8/2017 14:22	Ta, Rogerlin. I guess I saw a simplistic view (it looked like a prospective elephant field!).	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
07/8/2017 09:02	Ta, Frazboy and Rogerlin. I'm looking at a map of the block, which shows this SNE north-1 well to be located close to the southern extreme of an aerially large structure. There may be a thicker reservoir and more pay toward the centre of the structure? We can't know till someone returns and drills. Could that be what Thomson is alluding to ... "The SNE North well results are encouraging in terms of further prospectivity and implications for the full block potential offshore Senegal."	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
07/8/2017 08:23	Yep, looks to me to be below expectation due to modest net pay, and the fact that the main target was gas/condensate filled. It wasn't particularly material, unless it had been a humdinger. Next news update will be Dromberg (dry hole expected, and I think priced in) followed by the interims, and hopefully a resource upgrade for SNE	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
07/8/2017 08:19	Thanks frazboy, plenty to digest there! Result from Sirius in. https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/cairn-energy-CNE/share-news/Cairn-Energy-PLC-SNE-North-1-exploration-well/75392159	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
06/8/2017 15:34	Rogerlin, Ed Not sure if you know but Edison published an update on the Cairn on the 24th July. Look it up, worth a read. Not sure I agree about the beta increasing, Cairn should generate cash over the next couple of years, prior to the serious spend on SNE. And the valuation assigned to D+D has to be taken with a pinch of salt even with hindsight! Some interesting stuff on SNE valuation but I'm not sure about the default discount rate of 12.5% - I would be tempted to default to 10% for the NS assets	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 21:54	Thanks Ed, Rogerlin Yep, average cash flow for the next 2 to 3 years should be around $260m for K+C, perhaps a bit less but certainly in excess of $225 (depending on OP assumptions, time to plateau etc etc). Reported shorts up by 0.1% today (27/07 Canada Pension Plan from 0.5% to 0.6%). Tullow down, but the bankers were betting against leverage there, and that's obviously far more sensitive to the recent OP expectation shift. Not sure about trying to fund the development of SNE at all, to my mind Cairn is all about value add via exploration, production is only there to provide the cash flows. Having said that, if they were to bin SNE, then they would be flush with cash (too far the other way), but I'm happy to have a cash return! Thanks for the note on Skarfjell, I tend to forget about that, I don't currently assign it any value. For what it's worth I estimate Capex for Kraken (100% WI) for 2018 of $160m (4 wells will remain at ~$40m a pop), and for Catcher (100% WI) $250m (5 wells at $50m a pop). I forget where I get the per well costs, but the well numbers yet to drill come from analysis of the recent Enquest/PMO updates.	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 19:07	https://www.wintershall.no/news-media/press-releases/detail/skarfjell-development-concept-submitted.html There is also the stake in Skarfjell to pay for.	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 17:07	Re: Capex for 2018. I don't have any independent numbers. All I do is to refer to published material. So, for instance, page 29 of Cairn's April 2017 presentation gives spend projections for SNE. Total spend may be $5.2 billion but only $100-170 million in 2018? Times 40% for Cairn. Cross checking with FAR. They say capex $12-15/bbl, so for phase 1 at 350 million bbls = $4.5 billion. Say $5 billion as a rough average gross figure for SNE. Then x 40% = $2 billion for Cairn's share of SNE. Cash flow from Cairn's share of Kraken and Catcher might be $260 million pa? Rambling a bit, but I think Cairn might like to halve their 40% of SNE? $1 billion capex for SNE would be more manageable and production of c. 22,000 bbl/day would balance better with Kraken and Catcher. Cairn might get $3/bbl x 600mmbo x 20% for the 20% I think they might sell = $360 million. That would take down Cairn's capex to around $640 million. Shorts? Yes, some may simply be plays on their guess as to future oil prices?	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 14:34	.. meant to say, a couple of possible reasons short positions have been increasing i) is because the company's cash is running relatively low. They do have the RBL facility and the Kraken Flowstream 4.5% deal, but until the data says those fields are generating cash the shorters may sniff a bit of blood, and ii) the shorters increased their position when the oil price was sliding back down to the mid forties. It'll be interesting to see if they start to buy back, I noticed some reversal in Tullow's short position over the last week or two.	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 14:30	I'm not too concerned about Catcher startup - it's a few months away and it looks a bit more like a typical run of the mill development to me (although I can't remember how they're completing the wells) - and, besides it's worth a fair bit less than Kraken, perhaps 30p+ a share. As for India, I still don't see any cash changing hands, and even if it goes against them (and I'm pretty sure the issue isn't black and white), then the Indian authorities already have $1bn... As Rogerlin hinted at a few days ago, there's no way the Indian authorities are going to hand back the monies. Zero pence seems a reasonable estimate here. The way I see it, I've already priced in some issues (i'm a little bit pessimistic on my assumptions and profiles) on K+C, but I suppose I could price in failure in the tax case which will once suitably risked might knock 5-10p off a share? So, any news that K+C are producing at reasonable rates should start to lift the share price Other sources of good news are the Fan North well currently drilling (high CoS), and a possible sale of SNE but I agree the majors are still being prudent in handing out the cash, so valuing the reserves at between $2 and $3 still looks reasonable, particularly now more wells have been drilled than when Woodside bought their stake (I'm assuming the P90 has been brought up, and this from my experience is often how companies determine whether to proceed with a development). I had also wondered if some of the slippage in the share price was due to doubts over the development / commerciality of SNE, particularly with the "Lower for Longer" mantra being more accepted. BTW - I'm currently trying to estimate Capex for 2018 (Catcher, Kraken, and Senegal), do you have any numbers?	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 11:39	Ta, Frazboy. :-) Trying to understand the shorters ... Cairn has three significant events approaching: Kraken and Catcher start-ups and the judgement in the Indian Tax dispute. If any one of those disappoints, then the share price goes down? Maybe that's it? Also, Senegal would cost more to develop than Cairn could afford. Cairn have said that SNE would give in irr of 26% at $50 oil, so they should be able to farm out some. Majors, though, are in cash conservation and dividend support mode. Maybe there's some doubt about the value of SNE? Apologies to holders, just fishing around for why there should be increased short selling. (It's only a low level, btw - so may not be much to it.) Mexico - (Agree, Rogerlin :-) ) Premier took about 2 years from getting the blocks to well result. Cairn got its blocks in June 2017. So, maybe by January 2019 Cairn will have a drill rig booked for well(s) in the summer of 2019?	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 11:15	Premier acquired the licences in July 2015, re-processed existing seismic during 2016, so 2 years if existing seismic is up to the job.	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 10:51	It cost Cairn a maximum of $22m for the well/block assuming they hit the liability threshold (operations seem to be going okay so they probably will be under the threshold). There was the other PVR block that they farmed into, but I think the cost of that was peanuts. So, that equates to 2.9p a share (if we have to be precise). Today Cairn is off 5p as i wirte, so, you could argue oversold. But the OP is also off today. and I have a NPV vs. price calculation that suggests that the rest of the slide in the Cairn price today is due to the fall in the OP. So, buying opportunity? Not really. Thing is, as we've both noticed the Cairn share price has consistently underperformed as the oil price has risen - it seems to rise a bit on good days, but fall a bit more on bad days. To get things in context, I've run three different evaluation (and all slightly pessimistic) methods on Kraken (I've ignored the Flowstream 4.5% cash for future revenue arrangement) and I get an NPV of around $480m. That's more like 61p a share. That's why I'm waiting for news that the producers all up and running and things are going approximately to plan (I don't mind a few months production deferrment, but wells/pumps falling over would be very disappointing). Mexico... we may get an update soon, but, they only got the block recently - I'm sure there will be existing seismic data but perhaps they will want to shoot more pre-drill which I estimate would take around 12 months (perhaps as long as 18 by the time it's been tendered, acquired and interpreted). How long did PMO take from acquisition of the block to the drilling of the first well - that would be a reasonable guide?	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 10:14	Any thoughts on the likely timing of drilling those Mexican blocks?	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 10:13	Bouncing now. Not sure the selling's finished, though. Possible revisit of 170p? Today will be immaterial to long-termers.	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 08:43	CNE has reacted to that news pretty much as expected, $25m risked nothing back (so more like 4p a share). PVR on the other hand... they only had 28% of the field after the FOs, yet it's knocked $50m off the value - I think there was some hope value there!	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 08:33	http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/providence-resources-PVR/share-news/PROVIDENCE-RES-Providence-Resources-P-L-C-Oper/75383252 And the Druid water wet. But on to Drombeg.	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
04/8/2017 08:31	"As we said in our trading update the FPSO will leave Singapore in August. It is only the 3rd August today and even if it leaves at the end of the month, there is time to achieve first oil in December." Re Catcher. Para from an e-mail from PMO posted on that board.	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
03/8/2017 15:27	Yep, watching carefully too Ed, particularly Kraken. I can't currently reconcile a recent investor presentation by Cairn which showed a decent slug of cash from Kraken this year, with the apparent lack of news/activity in the field - it's one month until we get an update from Enquest. Could be that the presentation was always optimistic, particularly when you factor in payment delays due to shipping, and wringing the cash out of enquest. Interesting times.	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply
03/8/2017 15:03	Disclosed shorts increased from 0.6% to 2.31% during July. Recent share price performance has underperformed my expectations. It may just be that some investors are cautious, awaiting flow rates from Kraken and Catcher? If both fields produce to expectations, then maybe the share price heads up towards 200p? Notwithstanding the above, my confidence wavered and I sold out. Might return, depending on outlook and share price. Keeping watch for now. GLA	ed 123	Read Full Thread Reply
31/7/2017 19:29	http://far.live.irmau.com/irm/PDF/2333_0/QuarterlyActivitiesampCashflowReports In management comments near the end some remarks about the FAR PE arbitration process, expected to last "less than a year".	rogerlin	Read Full Thread Reply
30/7/2017 20:24	Agreed edit: Not only do I agree, but I think the tax department will try to ensure that they have sold the stake by the time the arbitration period ends!	frazboy	Read Full Thread Reply

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