Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[gettingrichslow] 16/2/2021 16:40

Now up 14% in the US!

[scepticalinvestor] 16/2/2021 16:39

not unlike your mum?

[warno01] 16/2/2021 16:34

We might be looking at a gangbusters statement based on today's rise. Can't be anticipation, surely more substantial. Biggest holding so fingers crossed. Great statement should see pushing through 750 and hopefully through 780 (key resistance levels). Last half hour is very unlike Burford share movement.

You have to think that after 6-9 months of little news other than SEC filing, then it needs to be strong. Would anticipate seeing a rise in deployments, but also some strong returns (considering the Volkswagen/Audi case for example)

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2021 16:26

Could do - looking forward

[bramcych] 16/2/2021 16:26

They haven't left it late as preliminary results will be issued at 12:00 GMT tomorrow due to US listing!

[podgyted] 16/2/2021 16:26

Midday TU tomorrow will be interesting. Currently according to the above BUR is £7.55 in the States

[hatfullofsky] 16/2/2021 16:24

Wow - talk about leaving it late !!!!

[rar100] 16/2/2021 16:17

william, they may come out with a gangbusters statement....they might do...and not be true to form.

[gettingrichslow] 16/2/2021 16:09

It’s popping right now - up 8% in New York!

[williamcooper104] 16/2/2021 15:55

It'll pop on the statement and then deflate over the course of the day - given previous recent form

[rar100] 16/2/2021 15:42

Trading update tomorrow, day traders betting on good statement and near future re-rating of SP

LTH's hoping for same, this one is anyway almost as much as 2nd jab

good luck all

[dudishes] 16/2/2021 15:38

Depends whether still cooking the books?

[jomac2412] 16/2/2021 15:32

maybe 750p close at this rate :)

[bogman1] 15/2/2021 17:06

It was. Sp dived the Carson block started spouting rubbish and it collapsed. I have held since then. Luckily had the opportunity to average down. Onward and upwards for this one.

[rar100] 15/2/2021 13:58

Yes I forgot about the Woodford effect with BUR, must have been very considerable, maybe he will buy more with his new venture...

[kaos3] 15/2/2021 08:25

scuba an interesting article to me - about interesting impact - did not know myself. thank you

[1aconic] 15/2/2021 08:13

Yup, he saw a sitting duck given Woodford's holding and simply exploited the fact hardly anybody seems to do research these days/reporting was a bit thin. It's a tricky valuation if you don't have the time/inclination to really dive into things. I was guilty of not knowing BUR anywhere near as well as I should have back then and still feel I'm learning even now.

Confidence might take a while to regain. However, I largely attribute the overhang since to the continued nervousness, Invesco having been (and possibly continuing to be) forced sellers as punters have abandoned their funds in droves and other fund managers not having the guts to go against the grain. Easier to stand back and wait for the dust to settle; even if it means less returns for their investors they won't perceive their job to be at risk - a higher priority for most of them. Those effects should all fade in time.

YPF bizarrely creates nervousness too given the weighting on the balance sheet. However, I consider that essentially a freebie at current valuations. You also have to go pretty damn negative in the probabilities assigned to create a negative EV out of that one.

Some of the biggest long term gainers had share price falls as high as 80% at points in their history (Apple, Amazon, etc). Not for a second saying that BUR can acheive those heights but it's a relatively virgin industry where connections and reputation could create quite a difficult moat.

A quick glance at the HUGE step up in commitments from 2017 onwards and a realisation that cases take 2-3 years on average to pay off should also scream out but seems to be largely overlooked currently. Think there's a hell of a lot to be positive about looking past the short term fluctuations.

[djderry] 14/2/2021 19:12

Yes,1aconic,a total charlatan.He has been the cause of what he's complaining about! The reason Burford's share price is so out of kilter with its fundamentals is because of Block and his ilk spooking the market.He put out an error filled 'report' with half truths,untruths and plain incorrect information.Baked in were a couple of facts ,yes the CEO and the CFO happened to be married,yes,if every bond holder were to call in their loans the next day,there would be a liquidity crunch ( the same is true for hundreds of public companies,if you exclude Burford's biggest wins,blah,blah,blah.
Think of your favourite football team and then exclude their biggest wins?
It's beyond any stretch of credibility to call this tripe a 'report' and yet mug punters were taken in and sold.
Remember,he slapped an 'embargo' on the 'report' but announced the embargo so as to further spook the market.
Remember that he was also covering his position within hours.
Hundreds of millions wiped off the share price.
But,of course,all the blame can't be laid at his door.
Investors who sold played into his hands and sold so he could then buy back shares for half nothing to cover the ones he sold earlier.
You see ,most investors aren't very good at sticking to plans.
At the first hint of a dramatic share price fall,they're out the door.
Even if one points out that almost every growth share will show major retracements over time,often horrific price reversals,it makes no difference.
As Ben Graham put it so well,' but we know from experience that eventually the market catches up with reality'.
As I mentioned earlier,investors will begin to see the light as time goes by.The uncorrelated returns,the counter cyclical and defensive characteristics of the portfolio and the emergence of litigation finance as a unique asset class will help to change opinion.
And then,of course,Burford's best in class record will matter more than ever.

[1aconic] 14/2/2021 17:30

CBs comments are riddled with fundamental errors. Another that stood out to me from his IC interview a few months ago was justifying his BUR attack by claiming because his "own personal legal background" showed him that predicting the outcome of litigation is impossible and thereby BUR is a nonsense business. Grabbing at that straw showed either how little basic understanding of the business model he actually had or that he simply had nothing better but didn't want to undermine his "credibility" by admitting so. Clearly BUR don't attempt to predict the outcome of litigation... they take a probability based approach and structure fees so that win proceeds exceed those from the occassional loss over the long run. Exactly the same type of model used by insurance companies and banks in their own dealings since the foundation of those industries! Jumping to a thinly extrapolated conclusion (in a CB-esque way), he clearly believes the whole global financial system is based on false concepts and a fraud. Some of his old work seems to be quite decent but these days he's a total charlatan.

[tradertrev] 13/2/2021 17:28

Fundamental errors from CB in that self-serving nonsense. There was no misallocation of capital because Gamestop didn't raise any new money during the hype. Some traders made some money and some lost - the fact that some who lost were activist short hedge funds for a change is not detrimental to society nor an indicator of structural problems in markets. Furthermore, there is no basis to say passive funds would have had to buy more GME during the rise - their portfolio weighting in GME went up and down with the share price/market cap. There would have been no need to alter their weightings by buying or selling shares.
In relation to Tesla, one can argue that their ability to raise capital with their sky high valuation permits a beneficial allocation of capital towards a business that is (probably) helping to reduce carbon emissions globally.

[riskvsreward] 13/2/2021 16:56

And nothing new either. Any market is driven by demand and supply, where the demand can from time to time be irrational and won't reflect fundamental value. Besides a lot of financial products don't have an easy to define fundamental value anyway, such as bitcoin, rare stamps, antiques etc.

[scubadiverr] 13/2/2021 16:00

Nothing relating to Burford