Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[ozzmosiz] 18/2/2021 08:57

They did state a while back that from year to year the numbers will naturally fluctuate.Hardly a surprise during Covid either.

[tony5000] 18/2/2021 08:49

I believe part of the problem might be that Burford doesn’t appear to have hit its consensus numbers. Although there was positive spin on cash generation, total income fell short at $345-$355 vs $386 (consensus) and pre tax profit probably also falls short - consensus net profit before tax is $260.86 & Burford indicate an operating profit of $240-$250m (so presumably PBT will be lower). Then the company gives a post tax profit indication of $160-$170m vs $212m last year but doesn’t appear to give any pre-tax numbers (last year pre-tax being $225.52m). I think - going forward - Burford needs to hit or exceed its numbers to maintain momentum and confidence & guide analysts accordingly. Numbers extracted from Sharescope but I stand to be corrected DYOR & IMHO

[1aconic] 18/2/2021 08:08

I do think one of the issues is that the numbers are a lot harder to fully understand than for a typical company. Realizations, realised gains and the waterfall structure of the funds take a bit of getting your head round and translating into real world meaning. I think people therefore just look to the headline figure of a lower profit after tax, see that it's down and look away. I also found the price rise on Tues was a bit worrying for what would happen yesterday... far too many people know this is undervalued and know results are when it tends to make a bit of a rise. No interest in sticking around so there are bound to be large day trade sales and sales from the disenchanted/easily spooked immediately afterwards. Someone, somewhere in PE must be rubbing their hands in glee currently... the market cap is barely double the SWF's current fund investment, barely the value of the RepSol settlement, double annual realisations, etc, etc. What are we all missing?? To me, it makes zero sense other than to put it down to poor market sentiment. Unless I've totally misunderstood absolutely everything about this company, for me there's no other choice than to grit it out for the rewards when the masses wake up. As a far better investor than me once said "once you realise there's a bandwagon it's usually too late to jump on it"...

[williamcooper104] 17/2/2021 21:55

Lucky given how much I've traded it

[dekle] 17/2/2021 21:05

If you are looking to invest in oil stocks IOG or SDX might be a bit more exciting

[ozzmosiz] 17/2/2021 20:50

Made a mint on GKP back in 2009

[stentorian] 17/2/2021 20:25

There is no stamp duty on BUR anyway!

[sbb1x] 17/2/2021 20:10

#gkp is excellent for trading as there is no stamp duty and in a massive upward trend because of oil hitting 52 week highsGKP- NO STAMP DUTY

[qs99] 17/2/2021 20:02

Any broker updates anyone seen? Thanks

[williamcooper104] 17/2/2021 19:33

Wish I'd bought the bonds on the MW crash

[time_traveller] 17/2/2021 19:09

At least the bonds ticked up on the update.

[williamcooper104] 17/2/2021 18:32

There's been a pretty consistent premium to the NY price Was delighted that interactive brokers gave me the NY ones even though I'd wanted the U.K. listed ones Don't think there's any withholding tax on the NYSE listed shares

[dgdg1] 17/2/2021 17:28

Now back up to 693p in New York, if you think that the price on AIM tomorrow will still be about where it closed on AIM and not in line with NY (as it was this morning) then I suggest you arbitrage by selling in NY now and buy on AIM tomorrow at the open. When NY opens the prices will become the same. I would do it but I'm worried (probably I'm being too cautious) that the price tomorrow will be the NY price.

[donald pond] 17/2/2021 16:53

They have $336m of dry powder so are well covered.
The big news here is that they have increased income by 100% once you take YPF out of the equation. So, take YPF away and you have a $2bn company making $230m a year profit. Add in YPF and you have a one off case worth between $4-12bn on top of that "steady state" company.

[dekle] 17/2/2021 16:44

Doesn't sound like they need more funds as there isn't enough new opportunities at the moment

[riverman77] 17/2/2021 16:26

Not especially surprised by reaction given past form on this share. It always spikes then falls back. Yes it was an impressive FY update, but almost all the good parts came from H1 so was already known about. There was little in way of new realisations in H2. Granted there was an uptick in new cases and you have to acknowledge the covid impact, so probably neutral overall for this particular update. Could have been better could have been worse. Don't get me wrong I think this should be double its current price but I think that will only happen when we see some further big wins come through, hopefully in next H1 results. So further patience needed.

[rar100] 17/2/2021 16:09

Oh dear, back to situation normal

[hatfullofsky] 17/2/2021 16:06

Flipping frustrating

[qs99] 17/2/2021 16:01

Looks an odd reaction IMO....new business "snapped" back H2 that is quite a statement iMO....through in the reinstatement of divi as sign of confidence, albeit not payable until June.....any broker updates anywhere? DYOR

[saltraider] 17/2/2021 15:58

It does seem like there is an attempt being made to shake-out weak and nervous holders ... to catch out cautious holders who have set fresh stop loss limits ahead of the update, in case it turned out to be bad news.

[ozzmosiz] 17/2/2021 15:52

So the evils can mop em up cheap

[onup] 17/2/2021 15:49

Usual ..excellent news ,,sp goes south ,,,,why

[1aconic] 17/2/2021 14:56

I re-read one of his books last year and was thinking the same for most of it. Except for one key criteria... must be a simple and easily understandable business. Falls down a bit on that one. In the unlikely event he did buy in I think we'd see a dramatic increase in the accessibility of reporting!

[extrader] 17/2/2021 14:45

Buffett ?

Absolutely ! High moat, quasi- monopoly, litigious culture - with lots to be litigious about....

Only downside is that, with so many lawyers already in the legislature, it might be vulnerable to some kind of anti-cartel 'squeeze' ?

IMO

[williamcooper104] 17/2/2021 14:41

It's just too small for buffet - he'd need to buy whole company to make it interesting