Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[bradvert] 28/6/2022 13:00

Well she's the relevent judge in charge of Petersen/YPF..I'd recommend Sebastian Maril's twitter timeline for more on the process. He is an authority, and posts in both Spanish and English.

[saltraider] 28/6/2022 12:43

@bradvert ... interesting. But is this actually Petersen-related. It's not clear to me that it is. Reference to facilitating payment to a creditor with bonds in default does not sound like Petersen to me.

I am no expert on the details of this process. Perhaps someone who has a better understanding can cast further light on this.

[bradvert] 28/6/2022 12:19

Judge Preska orders bank in NY to disclose Argentina Govt pastand present account details and transactions, for purpose of seizing assets, and paying a judgement! https://twitter.com/SebastianMaril/status/1541727933802348544

[reddirish] 28/6/2022 11:47

Yes, a $10b market cap is not out of the question that far down the line, if: management credibility is restored/established to allow future earnings potential to be reflected in the share price; a shift away from fund allocations lifts annual balance sheet deployments up to $400m on average, post pandemic, growing mid to high single digits; brand strength puts a lid on competitive pressure to reduce the ROIC (helped by a YPF win of any meaningful size); and the payout from YPF is anything more than $3b. A fair number of ifs, but all highly possible.... I'm certainly in for the long term, at quite a 'committed' level, but of course, DYOR.

[74tom] 28/6/2022 10:29

Yep, big money likes what it sees / hears on the grapevine, both in London & New York.

[donald pond] 28/6/2022 10:12

It's pretty clear that the share price has reacted strongly to the YPF filings. Whether that is wishful thinking or considered judgment is open to debate, but it is clearly a positive

[kuk1doh] 28/6/2022 09:29

@reddirsih: I would add to your financial model (i) a migration away from funds and towards higher margin balance sheet deployment funding, as stated in a recent RNS, which also signals where the $2.6bn plus any YPF windfall cash will be deployed and (ii) underlying business/market growth with annual deployment growth running at high single digits.

If the cash promise materialises, YPF gain becomes clear and growth potential is confirmed then this goes to $50 in three to four years.

[nigelmoat] 28/6/2022 06:22

Nice rise of 8% States side continued yesterday.

[syoun2] 27/6/2022 21:20

Or refinancing / paying off debt

[syoun2] 27/6/2022 21:12

Hope not, would rather the better return from being reinvested

[williamcooper104] 27/6/2022 20:37

Yep pretty much if we both win and collect (collect will be at a discount to settlement but still lots of fat) Would imagine that there would be a special divi/buyback with a good chunk of the cash

[three black crows] 27/6/2022 18:45

So when the cash eventually comes in from a settlement, share price would be around £16
I think I understood you correctly , ie,
Adding another current share price on top

[loglorry1] 27/6/2022 18:24

I have taken profits again today. I may miss out on a pop up but I don't think we get a summary judgement. I think it goes to trial.

I may well reenter. BUR is a good trading stock.

[williamcooper104] 27/6/2022 18:01

Also a loss (although unlikely anything can happen in litigation) would take about a third of book value and likely a similar amount on the share price So a win removes the risk of a sudden drawdown - which really matters if youre a fund managerIf we win but don't collect it just means that the time the claim is effectively written of is way out into the long grass - by which time what matters is what's happened to the business/other cases

[williamcooper104] 27/6/2022 17:52

The win is likely to be at least the market cap But market will heavily discount what it can collect and how long it will take My guess is a 10-20 percent share price pop on a win; though of course always possible that short term we see a higher share price rise

[three black crows] 27/6/2022 17:33

Lovely to see the breakdown, but What sort of share price would a win of this magnitude likely create ?

[syoun2] 27/6/2022 17:17

Only just got div from IG, ridiculously late again

[somerset lad] 27/6/2022 14:24

My post #22628 is based on reading Part IV of document 405 which explains clearly what the Plaintiffs propose.

[houseofpain1] 27/6/2022 13:13

Donald is right on this one. Penultimate paragraph on page 4 of Petersen's most recent docket entry reads:

Finally, Defendants endeavor to gin up a fact dispute as to the pre-judgment interest rate
and consequential damages. Should this Court accept that invitation to conduct a trial on those
damages issues, Plaintiffs will seek the additional damages they are owed. But to bring this
decade-long saga to a close, Plaintiffs simply ask this Court to grant summary judgment now for
the amounts set forth in the Bylaws and their Opening Brief. See Part IV.

[michaelem] 27/6/2022 13:10

I regard a further share purchase by non-exec directors as very important indicators. These investments are absorbing a significant part of their modest incomes. Very reassuring!

[somerset lad] 27/6/2022 12:55

BUR's submissions state:
“These calculations result in $7.533 billion in direct damages for Petersen and $898 million in direct damages for Eton Park – again, using a February 13, 2012 notice date” “as indirect damages, Petersen should also receive the value that its shares lost between April 16, 2012 and their foreclosure – $156 million” “the relevant prejudgment interest rate is New York’s 9%” “That rate generates $6.405 billion in prejudgment interest on the tender offer that Petersen should have received and $763 million on the tender offer that Eton Park should have received through September 24, 2021, with prejudgment interest continuing to accrue thereafter” “The additional $156 million Petersen lost as a result of the drop in value of its shares generates prejudgment interest of $133 million through September 24, 2021,”

Very happy to be corrected (and DYOR as always - this may contain errors and must not be relied upon for investing or other purposes) but I get the total value of the claims for summary judgment, damages + interest up to 24.9.21:
Petersen = $14.227bn. Eton Park = $1.66bn
BUR has a 31.5% stake in Petersen and 70% in Eton Park, so BUR's share is: 14.227 x 0.315 + 1.661 x 0.7 = $5.64bn

Then we need to add 9% simple interest for a further year assuming that judgment is handed down on 24 September 2022: (0.09 x 0.315 x (7,533 + 133) + 0.09 x 0.7 x 898) @ $274m = $5.914bn.

As noted earlier in this thread, BUR has indicated that it is willing to drop the indirect damages claim (and associated interest) if doing so is necessary to get summary judgment on the rest; and BUR recognises that an interest rate below 9% might be chosen as a matter of law as part of a summary judgment.

And the suggestion that, if successful, the owners of the claims might choose to sell them at a discount to face value in return for immediate payment seems plausible.

[ali47fish] 27/6/2022 12:50

dir buys how sifnicicant anyone

[three black crows] 27/6/2022 12:32

Does anyone have an idea how much Burford will get bout of this if they win ?A ball park figure / range between lowest payout to highest payout