Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[lomax99] 19/7/2022 22:17

Https://www.miningweekly.com/article/ggg-secures-arbitration-funding-2022-07-05

[donald pond] 19/7/2022 08:18

I read through that, seems it is mainly about the right to challenge an incredibly high interest rate that BUR never even asked for. I think it's a non event in terms of quantum

[bestace] 18/7/2022 19:15

It's based on this ruling:

[lomax99] 18/7/2022 17:42

No, unfortunately not.

[lazg] 18/7/2022 17:22

Do you have access to the article?

[lomax99] 18/7/2022 15:08

Https://globalarbitrationreview.com/article/california-businessman-can-bring-late-challenge-burford-award

[lomax99] 18/7/2022 10:59

Shhhhhhhh......,,

[1aconic] 06/7/2022 19:59

Ageed. I wasn't disagreeing with you, just looking at a different angle. I think you're referring to short term share price movements and I fully agree the current GBP weakness is fully taken into account on a rolling basis. However, I'm looking at medium term earnings/EV. The bonus from a weak pound is only factored in if you assume market efficiency and that future earnings are correctly priced in. I definitely don't (but that's subjective of course). So a weak pound would mean a bigger adjustment in GBP share price terms when future earnings become correctly priced in.

[houseofpain1] 06/7/2022 15:37

1aconic. For clarity, I'm not suggesting that sterling weakness isn't a tailwind for GBP holders of Burford, merely that the shares adjust for it automatically so that GBP weakness isn't going "unnoticed".

[williamcooper104] 06/7/2022 13:22

There's a long standing and helpful correlation between strong dollar and markets blowing up

[1aconic] 06/7/2022 12:01

Thanks for the link Alfredo

[1aconic] 06/7/2022 11:57

Your point is still valid though Donald and I've been looking at sterling's depreciation as good myself. BUR earnings are obviously predominantly in USD and the medium term share price will likely be evaluated in USD then converted to GBP. In my view, in the current short term share price movements, that's been overridden by shifts in sentiment and general market conditions. If sterling stays weak against the dollar then I think your point about a medium term tailwind for UK investors still exists.

[alfredomega] 06/7/2022 10:25

hxxps://www.listcorp.com/asx/ggg/greenland-minerals-limited/news/litigation-funding-secured-2730268.html

[lazg] 06/7/2022 10:12

Does anyone know when Preska is likely to rule?

[donald pond] 06/7/2022 09:11

Very true, I (stupidly) didn't think of comparing the 2.

[houseofpain1] 06/7/2022 09:07

Morning Donald,

I think the market effectively adjusts for this in the respective share prices of the GBP and USD lines, no? The USD line is down -6.99% YTD on a total return basis whilst the GBP line is up +5.71%. Ie, the benefit of sterling weakness for UK holders is already in the price.

[donald pond] 06/7/2022 08:54

What's passed unnoticed is that the dollar has gained 10% in sterling YTD. That's a big tailwind for U.K. holders of Burford

[djderry] 04/7/2022 21:43

Yes reddirish,all mere speculation,full of sound and fury, signifying nothing,as the Bard said.In less optimistic moments I recall one of the telephone conferences among the lawyers when one of Burford's legal team was banging on about how the defendants were using delaying tactics all the time and whatever phrase he was repeating ( I can't remember what it was) was annoying Judge Preska and she told him to stop using it.I remember thinking ' it is not a good tactic to annoy the Judge.' At that same case conference,the Burford representative was complaining that the defendants' request would mean trawling through thousands of documents ( did he say 40,000?) and Judge Preska replied,and this is,I'm pretty sure,an exact quote ' you pays your money and you take your chance'.I interpreted that to mean you ( Burford) have taken this case,you've thrown the dice,it's up to you to provide the information.Of course,I could have completely misinterpreted that.During that same exchange ,again to get plaintiffs to provide the documents being sought by the defendants,she said words to the effect ( and I'm pretty sure this is an accurate paraphrase) that she read somewhere that this was a billion dollar case so there were plenty reasons to provide the information.I remember thinking 'please don't tell me that she thinks that's all it's worth'.Of course,that was just one tiny exchange at a long conference.It could well be that part of the responses are expressed to make it clear she is not favouring either side.

[reddirish] 04/7/2022 17:56

I'm with you in doubting that Burford would off-load any significant proportion of a successful award. Your reasoning is convincing; in summary, it would be in the company's interests, at this stage of its maturity and development, to demonstrate its abilities to maximise the value of success, as it would bring both new customers and - importantly - new shareholders on board . Again, all conjecture at this stage.

[djderry] 03/7/2022 16:48

Hi redirish,thank you for your message.Yes,'invested at a committed level' is one way to describe it!
I'm therefore very aware of not confusing what I think will happen with what I wish would happen.
Regarding the tax loss/tax credit,we are obviously in the realm of speculation,as it would only follow a finding in the plaintiffs' favour.However,what we can be sure about is that the company already has tax credits with regards to their purchase of fund management company Gerchen Keller and this is a valuable asset.We can also be fairly sure that all taxes will be kept to an absolute minimum,but in a tax compliant way ! ( Tax efficient rather than tax evasive,after all we're dealing with lawyers.)
Back in the realm of speculation,there seems to be a consensus among some,that if the plaintiffs were to prevail and be awarded damages,then they would sell it to a hedge fund or other investors as they have with a previous judgement against Argentina.
I'm not so sure.In many ways it would be the test case of all test cases.As you know,Burford has an arm that is devoted entirely to tracking and tracing and bringing recalcitrant debtors to book.Note how our Russian oligarch who vowed he would rather burn his money ( or,at least he was quoted in the press as saying so ,if one can believe the press) than seeing Burford get any,finally settled ( with his former wife) after sustained world-wide legal actions taken against entities allegedly controlled by him in some of the countries most associated with opaque and secretive finances.Again,I speculate,but imagine,every time an Agentinian controlled entity did business around the world ,or any asset belonging to Argentina docked in a foreign port,for example,that you had Burford doing what it does best,then the news would reverberate around the world.The publicity would be priceless and every time a company was wronged by a state actor ,Burford could expect another application for finance.And imagine if you were in a case where the opponent was being funded by Burford,you might think twice about giving them the run-around!

[three black crows] 03/7/2022 08:24

SettlementExtract taken from Econo Journal published the other day.What can Preska solve?Sources with access to the case told EconoJournal that Preska will most likely rule in favour of Burford because, although there was an expropriation law, the judge will seek to claim the value of contracts in Defence of private investors because otherwise any contract signed between private individuals would have no value in the face of a sovereign decision of a State and, therefore, it would

[sam55todd] 03/7/2022 02:02

Argentina is going through quite challenging times, inflation is above 60%, their economy minister just resigned, then all these shenanigans of (potential) settlement being paid with bonds instead of selling those bonds themselves and giving money to burford, because if burford tries to monetize bonds {assuming they won't default by that time} then it's another drop in value. I mean cashing in this claim might be very difficult (although every step closer towards it counts too).