Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[djderry] 26/5/2022 08:51

The share price doesn't tell me anything,except what ( a tiny number) of others are prepared to buy or sell the stock at.It's of no interest to me and tells me nothing.I didn't invest for a few big moves upwards in the share price I'll be quite happy to see YPF/ Petersen in the rear view mirror.It's obscuring a business that's in the footills of a long period of uncorrelated growth and profitability.

[donald pond] 26/5/2022 07:47

Yes, a very positive announcement. Everything except the share price going in the right direction though I think the share price should be fine from here

[djderry] 26/5/2022 07:32

Positive fund management announcement,extending the timeline for deployments from the SWF,along with a confident commentary on the risk reward returns.

[saltraider] 25/5/2022 21:09

This is the UK settlement only. A US settlement was reached first, with the German settlement then reached in 2020 (supported by BUR financing). As far as I can make out, BUR played no part in the UK settlement.

Presumably VW has also settled, or is in the process of settling in other jurisdictions. For all I know, BUR may be a part of some of that.

[time_traveller] 25/5/2022 19:29

They did, in Germany, via Hausfeld, and via Goldstein & partners. Not sure if that's up to date.

[donald pond] 25/5/2022 18:31

We're BUR funding any part of dieselgate? News at ANX, the Therium backed claim appears to have settled.

[planit2] 25/5/2022 10:02

Completely agree, management run this company as if it is all their own money (and a lot of it is)*.

They believe the share price is low and this is a good time to stock up on shares cheaply.


*I feel this is also why they seem to not care about short term returns but take decisions for the long term.

[michaelem] 25/5/2022 08:42

There is an expense line for this in the 2021 Income Statement at $9m. I’ve not noticed announcements for purchases before this recent sequence. I reckon that they seriously believe this is a good time to buy.

[syoun2] 25/5/2022 07:36

Hi, anyone know why so many shares being purchased for employee schemes ? I’ve never seen so many consecutive transactions before. Does it mean they’ve won some cases & have to reward there employees as part of there contracts ?

[houseofpain1] 25/5/2022 07:24

Not a huge buy from the chairman but still a positive signal. As the old saying goes: insiders have many reasons to sell a stock but only one reason to buy. And given the imminent event risk around Petersen, the timing is interesting - ie, buying shares now suggests that there’s nothing he’s seen in the first round of summary judgement filings to cause him to believe they’re not going to win Petersen.

[michaelem] 24/5/2022 21:30

10,000 at average of $7.755, $77.5k.

[f56] 24/5/2022 21:10

How much are you talking about here?

[michaelem] 24/5/2022 21:04

Mr Wilson has invested a substantial part of his Burford earnings $162k per annual report. He is surely expecting a substantial return on his investment. I reckon a great choice.

[ali47fish] 24/5/2022 16:44

the chair buy10000 small amount- what does it mean

[planit2] 24/5/2022 16:40

Thanks for the replies. So the debt is fixed interest set when inflation and rates were lower and the future income at least in part will be inflation adjusted.

I like this share which offers a hedge against my other positions and should perform better than bonds if inflation stays persistently high.

[tradertrev] 24/5/2022 12:07

Long term the business should be pretty well hedged against inflation as claims tend to deal with economic loss, which moves with inflation.
The average duration of cases is stated to be around 2 years, which means the potential for erosion of value is limited on the "in-force" book.

[tradertrev] 24/5/2022 12:03

While all the stocks that benefited from Covid (online retail, testing, vaccines, hygiene plays) have been falling these past few weeks/months, it's weird that a Covid recovery stock like Burford (income clearly impacted or at least delayed) has also been falling.
Hopefully this is starting to be recognised by a few people.

[riverman77] 24/5/2022 10:26

Court judgments typically take inflation into account, while settlements would obviously consider inflation (ultimately both parties have to be happy with any figure in order to reach agreement). Not sure what the fuss is all about. The fall in share price is very obviously due to the wider fall in markets - BUR always tends to fall more than the wider market, even though this is clearly nonsense as earnings have no correlation with what's going on in the economy, and given its low PE rating should be less sensitive to movements in interest rates (unlike the high PE, long duration tech stocks)

[time_traveller] 24/5/2022 09:56

While I would agree there is some negative correlation to inflation, (and with little else to blame, I assume most of the share price drop is due to inflation expectations) ... my thinking is that there is some level of inflation protection, with awards either specifically factored (YPF?), or more generally valued at current prices when the judge (or both parties in the case of settlements) calculates them.
Then there's the time from award to payment. I don't know if there's inflation protection on all those, but in the current high inflation environment, I expect there will be on current and future wins.

[loglorry1] 24/5/2022 08:41

BUR debt is fixed dollar debt hxxps://www.burfordcapital.com/shareholders/bond-information/#:~:text=On%2030%20January%202018%20Burford,Prospectus%20and%20Information%20Booklet%20below.

The claims book is not inflation resistant. You say "most claims will take inflation into account" but this just seems like a wish rather than reality. The expected payout of the claims currently in the book are not inflation undjusted so I don't see how you can make this claim.

10% inflation is unlikely to last so it's more of a one off (hopefully). The stock market is a beuaty contest. There are worse places to be invested if you are inflation averse.

[michaelem] 24/5/2022 08:38

Bonds issued by businesses are generally at fixed rates. All Burford’s bond are at fixed rate, see page 37 of 2021 Annual Report.

[michaelem] 24/5/2022 08:36

Bonds issued by businesses are generally at fixed rates. All Burford’s bond are at fixed rate, see page 37 of 2021 Annual Report.

[planit2] 24/5/2022 07:44

Does anyone know whether any of the funds were raised on a LIBOR+ basis?
Or is the debt all fixed interest?

I am investing here as I believe it is inflation resistant, most claims will take inflation into account. Hopefully the debt is fixed which will help even more.

[kaos3] 23/5/2022 14:45

I cant think. I am not that clever - so I ask.... those who might know better.

You see - there is a curve. Inflation curve. Are they behind it? Are they riding it NOW? As effects will be known years later. The difference is 100s of millions probably