Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[prokartace] 09/5/2022 15:46

I am going to dabble here

[time_traveller] 09/5/2022 14:06

What theory - that buying into a downtrend is a bad idea!?!

Or that around £6 provides very strong support (was resistance during the dark days off COVID, sadly no further on, share price wise.)

[chester9] 06/5/2022 13:31

Just bought 701 no point not testing the theory!

[chester9] 06/5/2022 13:11

Well I know yesterday was tough in US but Burs 6.28 is looking not in a bouncing mood yet. I have looked on the boards and web nothing to report. Probably mms having fun though you can draw quite the lineal line graph from May 21 9.50 to now and sadly it's in the wrong direction. Patience as always. Perhaps pre US opening will provide the usual bounce.

[divmad] 04/5/2022 17:29

Time_traveller, you obviously don't share the belief of the few perma-bulls on the other BB, about a surge in cash realisations just around the corner.

[chester9] 04/5/2022 16:53

Since May 21 9.50 it rises at results time and then drops and repeat. It usually bounces off 6.50. It is really is an under appreciated share and as such more fun for short termers. LTH just sit and wait in strong belief it's day will come.

[time_traveller] 04/5/2022 16:30

Very close on all time NYSE low

[lomax99] 04/5/2022 10:15

Inching nearer top-up time....

[kaos3] 29/4/2022 05:49

OT - a very strange world - I am a PXC shareholder from where I got donaldponds professional competences - superb ones in law and investments. And now imagine - a world expert on offshoring discussing offshore banking few weeks ago with a poor slovenian gardener (me)operating from his rented room - here on BUR BB - as being equal - as identities were unknown. life writes the best novels imho

[williamcooper104] 27/4/2022 17:02

Never trust an accountant to do their books :)

[bogman1] 27/4/2022 13:28

I hold Mano bur and beg all have done pretty well so far but with the recent pullback have yet to truely kick off. Also held FRP but sold them as they are a bit dodgy

[donald pond] 27/4/2022 10:16

I hosted the BlackRock LatAm investment trust webinar for Sharesoc yesterday. They are heavily invested in Brazil and Mexico but have minimal/zero Argentina exposure. They mentioned that inflation in Argentina was running at 60%. It does highlight how badly the economy there has been run. They seem unable to make tough decisions which would bring lasting benefits. Always the easy, populist decision and the bill delayed for another month. Perhaps explains why Petersen hasn't settled yet

[riverman77] 24/4/2022 16:51

I personally have a bit in MANO as a good counter cyclical play, but much more bullish on BUR. Firstly, BUR has some big cases on its books (not just Petersen) which hopefully should start to come through this year and with any luck catapult the share price higher. MANO on the other hand I see a more steady recovery as they build their cases back up. More importantly, BUR is very well diversified by different types of cases and geographies which reduces risk. MANO is focused on one specific area, so more exposed to specific risks within their niche. You may also want to consider BEG if you want exposure to UK insolvencies (there is also FRP but BEG is a bit cheaper last time I looked).

[divmad] 24/4/2022 06:52

Sorry, I didn't mean as a direct alternative to Bur. Lit is that. I meant as a high alpha, low general market correlating legal entity business. Bur is the business for me in litigation finance generally, but insolvency litigation seems to be a promising growth area in the UK now, given the economic tailwinds.

[williamcooper104] 23/4/2022 13:42

Yep LIT and OBL - ASX listed - are the two obvious comps

[riverman77] 23/4/2022 13:29

MANO is in a completely different niche (UK insolvencies) so not really an alternative, although interesting in its own right as insolvencies start to shoot up. LIT would be the most obvious alternative to Burford

[divmad] 23/4/2022 12:06

Anyone looked at Mano as an alternative to Bur?

[donald pond] 20/4/2022 08:36

I have previously spoken to someone in the enforcement business and his view was that it won't be entirely straightforward but is achievable. Argentina is not a pariah state. It is part of the global market and is currently pushing hard to expand its resources sector. So I've little doubt any claim will be recovered

[kaos3] 20/4/2022 06:30

not knowing it all about Argentina - BUR case might be timed and packaged into a broader state finances circumstances - like state default, currency depreciation, running inflation etc.

timing the case to the perfection with the other problems they might have

Meaning they will resist and then suddenly agree and the "case" will be flushed down with the other "produce" of theirs

I would think in those terms if I was on their side.

[divmad] 20/4/2022 06:17

So the matter of the IMF loan package is a non sequitur then?

[donald pond] 19/4/2022 20:55

It is also worth saying that the approach of the judge to damages is likely to be affected by the conduct of the parties. Having clearly done everything they can to delay the denouement, if the defendants come to court with weak arguments I'd say their chances of getting the normal NY interest rate on damages reduced is pretty slim.

[somerset lad] 19/4/2022 20:45

Riverman, I doubt Argentina will settle. As Donald Pond noted a few days ago, politically it is preferable for them to fight to the end rather than to try to justify a deal.

If we put settlement to one side, the questions I think are:

1. Will the Judge determine liability and damages on the summary judgment application? The legal submissions so far suggest to me (DYOR) that there is little dispute on fact and so there is a fair chance. If not, trial is due (subject to availability) 115 days after the summary judgment decision. (The next rounds of documents in the summary judgment application are due on 26 May 2022 and 23 June 2022 and, although not yet clear, I'd expect the Judge to schedule an oral hearing and to take say 3 months after that to write a judgment.)

2. Who will win? The Defendants' strongest argument (combining the first two points they make in their submissions) IMO is that the Repsol shares were not "acquired" until 2014 and so the obligation to make a tender offer arose after the Plaintiffs had ceased to own their shares. DYOR and there is always litigation uncertainty, but personally I would be surprised if this (or the other arguments about Argentinian law) persuaded the Judge that Argentina could make promises to US investors to pay compensation in case of expropriation to get its IPO away and then wriggle out of them (either through the defences or by ordering payment in pesos that have since been devalued).

3. If the Plaintiffs win, how much will they get? I was interested in the documents released on Thursday because they suggest to me that the claim is much more mechanical than the fairly wide ranges I'd seen quoted (e.g. by Numis) implied. This is not a case where the Judge needs to make complex forecasts about how much profit would have been earnt etc.

4. If the Plaintiffs win, will the Defendants appeal? As above, I expect the Defendants to take every step open to them; but the legal points open to them won't become any stronger on appeal than they are now.

5. If the Plaintiffs win, can they enforce? Personally, I think Argentina will struggle to function if every time they touch American jurisdiction (ports, banking system etc.) their assets get seized. So in practice I think they will end up paying.

Then the question is: if you weight all of the factors (risk of failure in the claim, risk that damages are lower than claimed etc.) how does the NPV of the claim rank against a book value of $773m and (as Riverman says) against the market cap?

My personal view (not advice, DYOR) is that BUR was effectively forced by investor criticism to keep the book value of the YPF litigation fixed and that the carrying value of $773m is now very conservative relative to the NPV, but we will soon see.

[riverman77] 19/4/2022 16:46

So even if they settle for half that, say 3bn USD, this is still well in excess of BUR's current market cap of around 2bn USD.