Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[alfredomega] 09/3/2022 07:50

I have been reading the tweets of that Jarre. I wouldn't take their arguments as very objective.

[trevor777] 08/3/2022 21:07

Read that transcript. Very helpful context - thank you. I'm not a lawyer but the arguments put forwards by YPF and Argentina seem to rely heavily on the principle of exemption from contractual obligation as they are acting as a sovereign nation. This is 2016 - subsequent to which the SD of NY, Appeals and Supreme courts in the US have listened to and ruled against them whilst they make this point. Although in the context of jurisdictional adjudication here, I find it hard to believe they will now add sufficient weight to this point of law (even if Argentinian law) to allow them off the hook on the central issue. Perhaps they have some other aces up their sleeves? How Petersen ended up with the shares in the first place seems highly irregular to me but not sure how the defense could weave that into anything helpful. Thoughts anyone?

[loglorry1] 08/3/2022 19:23

Deep-fried ones are crispy. Don't deep fry a squib though it will blow up your kitchen.

[kannerwas] 08/3/2022 19:13

I think most squids are damp

[rar100] 08/3/2022 18:55

Lomax99

I'll do as I please so don't waste your time telling me to move on. Why make things personal? I'm just a ex-shareholder that ran out of patience.

I think it's a shame that BUR has suffered in the markets for so long, maybe things will turn around one day but circa 2.5 years of stagnation in share price was just too long so I sold at 50% loss.

They have issued a profit warning again... That clinched my decision to sell up, but I will follow this board to see what happens in the future and maybe re-invest - as I think many people have done but still take an interest.

They have been unlucky with the MW attack, then Covid slowing down court process and they make mistakes (like us all). The US flotation was a damp squid for instance.

I hope for Russian Revolution mark 2, it's about time...

[houseofpain1] 08/3/2022 12:49

To be fair, donald, it's not something they're only raising now. I don't know if you have access to the case docket but, if you do, suggest reading the transcript of the hearing in August 2016 regarding Argentina's motion to dismiss: hxxps://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.440752.61.0.pdf

I appreciate that this is just a procedural hearing and not a full trial but, unless discovery has thrown up something out of leftfield, I think it gives a good idea of what the respective arguments will be come summary judgement applications/trial.

[donald pond] 08/3/2022 11:59

If you read the prospectus it was clearly aimed at covering the risk of expropriation. I can't see how they get out of that, of why, if they think it just a matter of construction, they are only raising it now

[donald pond] 08/3/2022 11:23

It sounds bizarre. That you could seize a company, pay off 51% of the holders and not the other 49% and argue that is acceptable? Can't see that passing by the US court.

[divmad] 08/3/2022 11:19

Donald, what do you make of "Jerre"'s tweet yesterday re this case? He/she is an expert witness, apparently.

[donald pond] 08/3/2022 08:55

Rar uses the phrase "court fines/settlements" which isn't helpful There are 3 ways this case can end.1 Defeat for BUR, in which case Argentina win2) Settlement, in which case Argentina agree to pay a sum to BUR and agree how and when it will be paid. As Bur knows what cash Argentina is scheduled to receive from the IMF that's going to be easy enough to agree3) court judgment. The risks there are that nobody knows what the outcome will be there but there are huge risks for Argentina as their case looks non existent, so delaying for years won't look goodWhich is why settlement and prompt payment seems the most likely outcome

[williamcooper104] 07/3/2022 21:11

Hope you're well As for Argentina - don't cry for me :)

[lomax99] 07/3/2022 18:08

'I'm glad I'm out' - so are we (glad you're out), well done, move on!

[rar100] 07/3/2022 17:50

I don't agree, I think Argentina will have more pressing uses for the cash than paying court fines/settlements

Bur will wait a long time, maybe never see settlement

Meanwhile Covid has taken it's toll with other cases and I'm glad I'm out

[three black crows] 06/3/2022 11:24

Oh yes, It looks a very favourable commitment from the IMF,
I’m sure we all agree, we are looking forward to this settlement

[donald pond] 06/3/2022 11:10

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-04/argentina-to-get-9-8-billion-from-imf-after-agreement-approvalPhased payments too. Would the Washington based IMF pay over to a country seeking to evade a US court judgment that has gone to the Supreme Court?

[chester9] 04/3/2022 21:53

IMF agree $9.8 Billion deal. To be voted in by Argentina parliament. Gives flexibility to sort issues and hopefully..... we'll you know the rest.

[lazg] 04/3/2022 18:14

I think that Muddy Water was wrong but that the stock may have been sighltly too expensive at that time.

So for anyone buying after Muddy, like most, it is up. Even though I would have expected it to move up more I am not disappointed.

Conclusion: if you believe in the thesis buy more. Especially if it trades at a rebate.

[time_traveller] 04/3/2022 16:39

Log lorry, of course it depends on the chosen timescale, but it's my only investment closing today at 11 month lows, and worth 1/3 of what it was about three years ago.

[fozzie] 04/3/2022 13:25

Took some at 659 thanks to your prompting dp ;0) Always seems strange buying shares on such an awful day but there we are. I held a few years ago and am glad to be back in here.

[donald pond] 04/3/2022 13:12

I'm waiting for the day, which will come, when BUR is seen as a risk-off stock.

[loglorry1] 04/3/2022 12:55

@donald you have seen what is going on in Ukraine right? BUR has held up pretty well compared to a lot of stocks.

[donald pond] 04/3/2022 12:28

We've had 2 positive judgments reported this week (Steinhoff and the LaSalle securities cases), press indications that Sundance may be reaching a very positive conclusion, a very bullish note from Numis and news that Argentina is close to finalising a $45bn IMF loan. And yet the share price is languishing. Absolutely crazy.

[lazg] 04/3/2022 11:53

Courts are up and running again. I think 2021 Q3 and Q4 should habe been back to normal or close to it. Courts have adapted.

[reubion] 04/3/2022 11:19

I am starting to worry about the effect of COVID delays a bit. The Seeking Alpha thesis uses the old ~ 30% IRR, 2.3 years WAL (1.6 years for settlements) numbers - but we had two years of COVID delays now, so these figures must be getting worse at some point?

[scubadiverr] 02/3/2022 12:47

New Seeking Alpha thesis on Burford...https://seekingalpha.com/article/4492128-burford-capital-business-price-embedded-call-options?mailingid=26881688&messageid=2800&serial=26881688.39&utm_campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=26881688.39