Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[time_traveller] 05/1/2022 12:24

I think a left field leap in the share price is more likely to come from PE assisted management buyout, than from the Reddit crowd. Not a high probably IMO, and tricky to structure, but they may try, and PE/private banking would dearly love burford as an add on to their services. Separately, I had unappreciated burford involvement in IT driven legal solutions - it is an area absolutely begging for development, and counter-intuitively, lawyers are one of the professions thought most at risk from "robots" in the future.

[rar100] 04/1/2022 21:34

I would just like more people buying the share and upping the SP, and the sooner the better, I'd prefer a re-rating in well under 2 or 3 years but just wishful thinking.

[saltraider] 04/1/2022 19:18

@lomax99 ... I agree. BUR is, I believe, seriously undervalued. In a year, or two ... or three, it will be significantly rerated. It's a 'coffee can' stock for me. In time, I expect it to multi-bag. I try not to look at the share price from day to day ... although, I'm afraid, I do occasionally take a sneaky peek.

In the meantime, I don't need the Reddit crew all over it ... at all.

[lomax99] 04/1/2022 16:20

I'd rather not have the Reddit crowd anywhere near this one.

[chester9] 04/1/2022 10:06

Ever get the impression that Judge Preska might be about to clang two heads together and say get this agreed. I hope so GLA

[rar100] 03/1/2022 14:21

Hopefully a bit more good press on BUR and maybe the Reddit crowd to pile in (and get more press reports - bring BUR more into the mainstream even if the Reddit lot seem to be nuts).

BUR and Lit.Fin still seems to be very niche...

[maddox] 03/1/2022 12:44

Looking to BUR's prospects in 2022 - Covid's trajectory is probably a key factor.

Covid's impact has, I think, been somewhat under appreciated. Initially, it led to a large drop in case commitment and then settlements appear to have dried-up. Certainly the case commitments' situation has been resolved but we're yet to hear what H2 has delivered by way of settlements.

Chris Bogart CMD stated "in our interim reporting, we thought we'd seen around 42% of our cases had seen some level of Covid delay. And that ranged from the kind of discovery shenanigans that I described in YPF all the way to, [to where] we sit today, we have cases that are trial-ready that are not proceeding to trial right now because those courts are not proceeding with civil jury trials."

Also, without the threat of a court trial there is little reason to rush to a settlement either. So, I think we may have fewer resolutions in H2.

However, there seems to be light appearing at the end of this long dark tunnel. And, somewhat surprisingly it appears to be Omicron, the latest variant. The evidence is mounting that whilst it spreads like wild-fire it is a significantly less serious infection, especially for those double-vaccinated. Also, as it is displacing the far more dangerous Delta variant it should actually reduce the illness and death. The UK appears to be following South Africa's path quite closely, and the US will too. Their peak of hospitalisation is now past and was c.62% below their Delta peak and Omicron is subsiding as fast as it spread.



I hope and pray that this will be the end of the Covid-19 pandemic and we can look forward to a more normal 2022. On that basis we might see a bumper year for BUR - but whether cases drops in H1 or H2 is anyone's guess?

Wishing you all a Happier and prosperous New Year.

Maddox

[divmad] 03/1/2022 12:04

BUR remains an enigma for most IIs, and the MuddyWaters episode didn't help matters.

But the more I read, re-read and think about the company's latest CMD presentation, Annual Report 2020, and the TW excellent report, the more I am convinced we have a stock that would do Berkshire Hathaway proud.

It's the multiple "moat" attributes that appeal to me, amply demonstrated by consistent 25% ROE annual returns for the last 4 years in a row, the high repeat op margins, the lean b/s, the management and employee share incentivisation through ownership, the proprietary algorithmic software that seemingly allows BUR to improve its win/loss ratio further over time....plus the underlying growth in the litigation finance sector of the legal industry, worldwide, of which they appear to be the main player.

There will come a time when the market recognises these unique features and begins to re-rate the shares more in common with the underlying metrics, cash conversion being the key one for transparency.

It's genuinely one of the few shares I own where with share price weakness I will positively rub my hands in anticipation of the future outsized returns I will then be making.

[three black crows] 03/1/2022 11:51

Divmad, a little more patience with the SP, if your invested recently, I think you’re in for a substantial gain this year. I am planning on it re-rating sometime before before Easter, but exactly when is anyones guess.
With regards to Investment, Ameriprise have been upping their investment, now standing at 11m shares (5%)
Burford has also previously advised that it will move to reporting under US GAAP beginning with its financial statements for the current fiscal year. Converting over to GAAP accounting with its increased transparency will leave behind the uncertainty that was raised by muddy waters and I believe will be a new chapter for Burford particularly as we are likely to see increased revenue coming through.

[donald pond] 03/1/2022 10:43

No, I asked a question at CMD and at least 2 US institutions followed up by contacting me on LinkedIn and asking if I had any research I wanted to share. I've since heard (from a source outside the company) that there are a few more institutions having a close look. I think 2022 is going to be pivotal for BUR

[divmad] 02/1/2022 22:40

So, that CMD event was basically a non-starter for BUR's rating in the US marketplace then.

[donald pond] 31/12/2021 09:12

Iirc Petersen is in court on 6 Jan and the expectation is that Judge Preska will push quite hard for mediation to take place. There are quite a few possible outcomes from this: Preska may ask for assurances that Argentina will accept any outcome for example. In any event 2022 is going to see Petersen progress and likely get resolved.

[lomax99] 24/12/2021 12:28

Good to see Ameriprise Financial take a 5% stake.

[williamcooper104] 24/12/2021 11:35

Stand by for a big year in UK class actions https://on.ft.com/33Vbkbs

[maddox] 22/12/2021 23:58

Thanks scuba much appreciated. I think that they are also funding Goldstein & Partner in Germany as well - should all add up to a substantial claim.

[scubadiverr] 22/12/2021 19:54

https://www.burfordcapital.com/media-room/media-room-container/hausfeld-to-pursue-volkswagen-claims-in-germany-backed-by-financing-from-burford-capital/

[maddox] 22/12/2021 16:28

Hi Guys,

please remind me - Has BUR got any interest in VW Dieselgate?

[hohum1] 21/12/2021 13:49

Bit of a bounce back today… this time next year, Rodney

[time_traveller] 20/12/2021 14:53

Is burford getting a media kicking ATM or something? Can't find anything, but this fall is getting quite conspicuous.

[tradertrev] 18/12/2021 22:51

Looks like HK is about to follow Singapore in opening up to legal finance for arbitrations:

Pretty inevitable really but still good news for us.

[time_traveller] 17/12/2021 15:00

I don't think it is, much. This is roughly the level it closed at in the US.

[divmad] 17/12/2021 14:26

Don't know why it should affect bur now then.

[alter ego] 17/12/2021 13:38

incase you don't get the point tradertrev is making

[tradertrev] 17/12/2021 13:29

Absurd really when you think about it. People were worried when he left Burford and later joined LIT, but now we know more about him.

[tradertrev] 17/12/2021 13:28

probably....