Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[lomax99] 17/5/2021 09:47

BUR AGM tomorrow, not expecting any further news/update to come out of it.

[galatea99] 17/5/2021 07:55

The last line actually means "if she accepts the request".
Google Translate is far from perfect!

[stentorian] 15/5/2021 23:26

thanks DP Google translation:

"YPF, Argentina and Burford ask Judge Preska for more time to conclude the Discovery.
- They want to postpone everything, including the start of the trial, 2 or 3 months.
- Preska in March warned that she was not willing to accept further delays.
- On Monday we will know if you accept the order."

[donald pond] 15/5/2021 20:36

Mediation incoming? https://twitter.com/sebastianmaril/status/1393543718842638337?s=21

[maddox] 15/5/2021 01:16

dgdg1 - there is no explanation. Mr Market can be irrational and there lies the opportunity, arbitraging price v value.

[williamcooper104] 14/5/2021 17:56

I had rationalised it as being seen as a "growth" stock and thus trading on risk on/risk off mood swings That made some sense when the share price was 4-6x book value However when the price crashed below book value the volatility remained

[geraldus] 14/5/2021 16:47

Looks like we are following our US buddies. Got a few at 8.50,pure luck.Upwards until they actually do put interest rates up.

[tnt99] 14/5/2021 13:53

Looks like the engineers have fixed the problem this train is calling at 9 pounds 10 pounds 11 pounds then to the moon!!!!

[riverman77] 14/5/2021 11:43

My guess is that it's categorised as a high risk financial by trading algorithms and reacts accordingly.

[dgdg1] 14/5/2021 10:53

You are right about the high beta, I just find this so illogical - does anyone have some kind of rational explanation for it when it should have a low beta as returns are more or less uncorrelated?

[williamcooper104] 14/5/2021 10:13

It's just the high beta, on a volatile major down day it's not uncommon for Bur to do twice the market fall

[dekle] 14/5/2021 10:06

All litigation companies fell yesterday and none have recovered so far. What's made them suffer?

[three black crows] 13/5/2021 20:11

Train is not broken, just refueling, it will be letting off some more steam shortly

[tnt99] 13/5/2021 19:07

Damn trains broken

[rar100] 13/5/2021 13:31

I read a report from Hargreaves (daily email) saying that US economists don't expect inflation to be a great problem and that things will return to normal - the new normal when the economy continues opening. Basically that April figures were an anomaly, so hopefully the sell off will stop soon...

Lets hope people see the new lower BUR share price as a buying opportunity

[loglorry1] 12/5/2021 15:29

Pretty tiny short hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GG00B4L84979/ - now closed - shame really as more latent buying power.

I wonder why they were so convinced? The certainly don't seem idiots.

[tnt99] 12/5/2021 15:18

If Gladstone had any sense they would take their losses and get out before we reach 15 pounds and they have lost a lot more only .60% now soon be gone then its up up and away in my beautiful balloon come on my Reddit crowd let's put the boosters on

[lomax99] 12/5/2021 12:53

Shame, as South African's say.

[tradertrev] 12/5/2021 12:35

From the FT - Gladstone having trouble with their Burford short. Aaah - bless...

Gladstone Capital, one of Europe’s top-performing hedge funds of recent years, has been hit by a rebound in stocks that suffered early in the pandemic, the latest sign of how many managers are struggling to navigate 2021’s market swings.

London-based Gladstone, which manages about $2.7bn in assets, lost 10 per cent in the first quarter of this year, according to people familiar with its performance. It recovered 5 per cent last month, leaving it down roughly 5 per cent for the year, the people said.

The MSCI World index of global developed market equities rose 9.3 per cent in the year to April 30. Gladstone declined to comment. The hedge fund industry overall has posted a strong start to the year, gaining 6 per cent in the first quarter in the best annual debut since before the financial crisis, according to HFR.

But behind the headline numbers, which were skewed by the performance of some smaller funds, many managers are posting far more mundane returns as they struggle to cope with gyrations under the surface of the market caused by an improving global economic outlook.

Some, such as London-based Sandbar Asset Management, have been hit as many stocks this year have failed to rally in response to strong earnings numbers or improving earnings expectations. In fact, US and European companies that have posted better than expected first-quarter results have barely outperformed markets on the day they were reported, according to research by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

Managers’ stock picks have actually lost investors money this year and have performed much worse than the average over the past 10 years, according to data from Morgan Stanley. “I think they [hedge funds] are finding it tricky,” said Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley’s chief European equity strategist. “Everyone is struggling for new ideas, long or short.”

Gladstone, a low-profile firm set up by former Lansdowne Partners equity analyst George Michelakis in 2005, had posted gains of about 23 per cent last year, 14 per cent in 2019, 23 per cent in 2018 and 37 per cent in 2017, according to numbers sent to investors and a person familiar with the performance, ranking it among the world’s top equity funds over this period.

Gladstone lost 6 per cent during this January’s market volatility, when huge levels of buying by retail investors sent the price of GameStop and some other beaten-down stocks soaring, the person said. While the hedge fund did not have direct exposure to the most heavily-traded names, it was still hit in the wider market tumult. Gladstone is the 13th most active short seller in European stocks, according to Breakout Point.

It has also been wrongfooted as many stocks across the region have rallied on expectations that progress on coronavirus vaccinations will fuel a sharp rebound in earnings. Shares it has been betting against, including litigation funder Burford Capital, software company Micro Focus International and digital payments group Network International, have all risen this year.

The MSCI Europe index has increased 11 per cent since the end of 2020. In January the Financial Times reported that partner Martin Stapleton, a leading fraud investigator and respected short seller, had left Gladstone.

[1aconic] 12/5/2021 11:32

My view is that's exactly it... uncorrelated earnings but inevitably correlated to the market in panic times. BUR's main shareholder over recent times has been Invesco. They've hemorrhaged money from their funds over the last year or so and at times have undoubtedly been doing heavy selling as a result. A large part of the holding was in the High Income fund (or whatever they've rebranded it to this week) which was absolutely decimated by investor redemptions last year. Other factors like small investor profit taking/nerves also relevent. But in theory that should be short term noise and you'd hope a stock with uncorrelated earnings would bounce back pretty quickly once any forced/temporary selling dried up.

[williamcooper104] 12/5/2021 11:13

Exactly - beta 1.35

[gettingrichslow] 12/5/2021 10:15

Riverman, yes, agree, and that’s why I’m heavily invested here. Even with the threat of inflation and possible consequential impact of higher interest rates I’m expecting the share price to reach circa £20 by the end of 2022.

[riverman77] 12/5/2021 10:01

The share price clearly isn't uncorrelated, but the earnings should be largely uncorrelated, and in the long run you'd expect the share price to move in line with earnings - therein lies the opportunity.