Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[stentorian] 30/4/2021 10:10

Translation of SM's Tweet yesterday:

"Tomorrow there will be news in the case for the expropriation of YPF. The dates of presentations of the information collected during the Discoveries are approaching. Popcorn."

[loglorry1] 30/4/2021 10:08

ARG/YPFs best defense (still not very good) was that the holding was via an ADR and so that meant it was different. They are also trying to argue that compensation should be paid in pesos which have since devalued 95%. I don't think these arguments are strong but they'll make them anyway. One big problem is that they already paid compensation to another holder. That holder was not a holder of the ADR however.

Obviously they'll argue with whatever they've got for as long as they can and try and force a settlement. I'm not a lawyer and I'm biased but I don't think they'd win in a New York court. They must know that and so logically speaking they must think it's best to settle and avoid any wildcard huge awards a judge could make.

[scubadiverr] 30/4/2021 09:55

If Bogart is saying they don't have control, they won't have control of this case. However, as a general point, under UK law (and I presume US law) insolvency cases differ from other funded cases in that they can be bought and run by the financer.

[1aconic] 30/4/2021 09:43

William/Scuba: Are you sure BUR can act as principal in Petersen? Going back only a few months, ARG was trying to have the case thrown out for that very reason (and still is as far as I'm aware). My understanding is that would contravene either Spanish law or YPF by-laws (couldn't quite work out which). ARG have been hammering the point and BUR have been asserting that they don't have control. Bogart's own testimony included notable comments to that effect.

[trident5] 30/4/2021 09:34

Thanks JTS/lomax - finding out the CEO and CFO were married triggered the sale of my shares here - it proved very timely.

[1aconic] 30/4/2021 09:32

LawDawg:

New schedule (as per 19-Feb-21):
22 March 2021 status report due
Fact Discovery due by 17 May 2021 5/17/2021.
Status Conference set for 31 Aug 2021 8/31/2021 at 10:00 AM before Judge Loretta A. Preska.
Expert Discovery due by 3 Sep 2021 9/3/2021.
Motions due by 24 Sep 2021 9/24/2021.
Responses due by 22 Oct 2021 10/22/2021.
Replies due by 11/12/2021. SO ORDERED this 19 day of February, 2021. (Signed by Judge Loretta A. Preska on 2/19/2021)
Trial in Jan 2022

[lomax99] 30/4/2021 09:29

I am 100%, a quick search confirms, from an RNS dated 15/8/19:

'Mr. Kilman has agreed to serve for up to two years as CFO and the Board, once reconstituted as discussed above, will take up succession planning for the CFO role as a priority.'

Mr Brause looks like a good appointment.

[jockthescot75] 30/4/2021 09:15

Trident - Yes, I'm 95% sure they did say it was on a temporary basis when they announced it, as it was always a stopgap to help with the corporate governance side of things given the CEO and FD were married prior.
I don't remember 2 years being mentioned, but I do remember it was stated as temporary until a permanent replacement was found. In many ways, I like the fact they've taken their time to find the right person.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 30/4/2021 08:38

Mr Brause started his career as a consultant with Booz, Allen.

Hopefully we'll all be having a good drink by the end of his tenure.😎

[trident5] 30/4/2021 08:36

Did we know that Kilman's tenure was only 2 years?

[tnt99] 29/4/2021 21:12

This is rated as the most undervaluedStock on the lse up up we go to true value with a little help from my Reddit followers woo woo next stop 15 pounds get on the train

[three black crows] 29/4/2021 20:17

Seems that the potential has been spotted

[onup1] 29/4/2021 20:12

Nyse seems heavy buying last 4 days

[three black crows] 29/4/2021 19:45

Pre Muddy Waters price was £15 or $20,
This is where it should be heading for a starters, Burford is in a stronger financial position now anyway, so seems like a reasonable re - rate to me

[lawdawg759] 29/4/2021 19:44

Does anyone have the most up-to-date scheduling order for Petersen?

[saltraider] 29/4/2021 18:10

I don't think there is any too much to be read into this. It's just the routine proceedings of the Court.

[lomax99] 29/4/2021 18:04

Maril Tweet: Tomorrow there will be news in the case for the expropriation of YPF. The dates of presentations of the information collected during the Discoveries are approaching. Popcorn.

[donald pond] 29/4/2021 17:01

https://twitter.com/sebastianmaril/status/1387775305121771527?s=21

[scubadiverr] 29/4/2021 14:34

In insolvency cases they can act as principal, like Manolete does.

[lawdawg759] 29/4/2021 13:56

Yes, they own the controlling interest in this claim.

[donald pond] 29/4/2021 13:55

Any settlement will always cover how payment happens. Any breach of those terms and the settlement will be void. And there is no history of any country ever refusing to pay a US court judgment. So I don't think enforcement is an issue.

[williamcooper104] 29/4/2021 13:52

The floor on a settlement that Bur would accept is likely to be a minimum return of 15 percent IRR on the last part of the claim sold (so given time to settle that could be 1.7-2x the value it was sold for)

[williamcooper104] 29/4/2021 13:49

I think Bur has more control on Peterson than it ordinary does when it is just funding for a share of the upside a claim (though even then it always has the ability to use the threat of stopping funding)

[loglorry1] 29/4/2021 12:33

Re collection Argie state has to save face. I think therefore Argi gov will inject cash into YPF in the form or a rights issue and then YPF will pay the claim. Could be a settlement yes. I think none of this can happen until an IMF deal gets done for Argi state because they are simply too skint to inject hard currency into YPF at this time. The IMF deal wont' be until end of the year.

The only real main thing that has changed recently (unless I'm wrong) was the ruling that the case stays in the US (New York). That was already in the June 2020 research note.

Note : BUR can't dictate to their clients to take a settlement or go to full trial. They can advise obviously.

What else has changed?