Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[time_traveller] 02/12/2020 16:00

What's up with the price? - really performing terribly these last few days against a sharp FTSE bounce, especially financials..

[stentorian] 02/12/2020 15:15

contempt of court is never a good look.

[onup1] 29/11/2020 21:53

Excellent summary thanks

[djderry] 29/11/2020 17:02

As you all know,the Petersen matter has been ongoing for many years.As you also know,all litigation matters are inherently uncertain as to their outcome.That said,the dogs in the street know that it's looking bleak for Argentina ever since they (mis) appropriated the shares of YPF.Having paid off Repsol,the die,many would suggest,is cast.
We may not be in the end phase but I suggest we are at the beginning of the end.We've been through all the usual,including the ' let's sack our team of lawyers'phase.
At this stage,one might be tempted to fight on to the bitter end.I would counter by suggesting the question the defendants should ask is not ' can we afford to settle?'but rather 'Can we afford not to settle?' It's one thing to be seen to stand up to the outsiders and their claims,it's another thing to have enforcement proceedings going on all over the world with the sovereign,again,becoming a pariah.Politically,it could prove fatal to the government,the potential judgement acting as a lightening rod for the opposition.
Much more sensible to settle behind closed doors.Let's say the full award is around $7 billion,give or take a few 100 million.To settle early (well,in less than a decade!),the plaintiffs give them a 50% discount.So,a $300 million lump sum first payment,followed by 2/3 hundred million per year over the next decade? Burford's share would be 61.25% of the award.
Then,they can go back to their people and claim they played hard ball,faced down the claims and achieved an outcome that,while unpalatable,is distinctly better than had the case gone to a final judgement.

[lomax99] 28/11/2020 13:01

Most expensive family feud in history to take the stage at London courtHttps://www.theguardian.com/news/2020/nov/28/most-expensive-family-feud-in-history-to-take-the-stage-at-london-court

[rar100] 26/11/2020 14:33

riverman77

Looks like Stocko called it right in the past and I like how they value it now...
Thanks for the info

[stentorian] 25/11/2020 18:48

Google ordered to hand over emails in £453m divorce battle

Judge Virginia M. DeMarchi in California - warming uo nicely for Monday.

[williamcooper104] 25/11/2020 15:41

Can't blame small floats for shorts not working Small floats are treacherous waters for any Muddy Waters

[gettingrichslow] 25/11/2020 14:55

So after at least a year of utter garbage from Carson Block that led to hundreds of posts on this discussion board from people like ‘SweetKarolina’ stating multiple times an hour that Burford is a fraud etc, it looks like Carson Block is coming unstuck on multiple fronts suddenly:

Bloomberg
Carson Block’s ‘Insane Alpha’ Fades in Bad Year for Short Bets
David Scanlan and Lisa Pham 14 hrs ago
(Bloomberg) -- Carson Block is having an unusually tough time betting against Chinese stocks.

The famed short seller’s recent calls to unload shares of GSX Techedu Inc., TAL Education Group and Joyy Inc. have largely backfired after the stocks rallied following brief dips when his reports were first posted.

“GSX, after we reported it, tripled,” Block said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “There is clearly something wrong.”

Block, founder of Muddy Waters Research, isn’t questioning his methods. He blames options traders, small floats and investors taking advantage of low volumes to push the Chinese stocks back up after his calls.

The result has been a grim year of shorting China equities for Block, who earned his reputation following successful bets against companies like Noble Group Ltd., the commodities firm in Singapore, and Sino-Forest Corp., a Canada-based timber company that operated in China.

GSX, the online education firm that Muddy Waters called out in May, soared more than 200% through August before paring some of its gains. TAL Education has almost doubled since Block announced his short position more than two years ago.

GSX has said Muddy Waters doesn’t understand its business model. TAL Education called the report erroneous and deceptive.

[williamcooper104] 25/11/2020 14:01

It was slowly de-flating prior to MW - management equity sales and Invesco/Woodford IMO more important drivers/signals of previously over valued share price Conversion management stock buys look very good value now

[riverman77] 25/11/2020 13:48

Just as an aside, I've noticed the Stockopedia score has improved significantly recently and is now up to 78, with a momentum rank of 89. These scores aren't infallible but can be worth keeping an eye on. In the case of BUR it was bang on - the score fell to below 20 in the months prior to the MW attack and subsequent collapse. Before that it had been in the 90s and flagged the stellar rise in 2016/17.

[donald pond] 25/11/2020 12:43

Time for an assault on £8/

[purplepelmets] 24/11/2020 22:45

brown envelopes presumably

[scubadiverr] 24/11/2020 19:31

She needs to be seen to be impartial and fair. I'm not a lawyer, as you've probably guessed, but that's my take

[rar100] 24/11/2020 18:58

So WHY is Judge Preska dancing to Argentina's tune?
Answers on a postcard....

[jockthescot75] 24/11/2020 17:50

Ha ha!
Thanks DJ.

[djderry] 24/11/2020 16:33

Hi jockthescot75,if you go to 'docketbird' on your search engine and put in 'petersen Argentina',you should get a list of all the dockets in the case.One of them for today's conference helpfully gave the conference number and the access code.
PS,for a small fee I would have spoken.

[jockthescot75] 24/11/2020 16:04

Thanks djderry. Where did you get the link to listen to that live?

cheers

Jock

[djderry] 24/11/2020 15:18

Just spent over an hour listening to the lawyers arguing their case in front of Judge Preska.The defendants are really trying to drag Burford into it,citing comments made on earning's calls.Burford well able to respond.As an aside,just as I was putting a bowl of soup in the microwave and slammed the oven door shut,Judge Preska shouted out that whoever was banging on the table to stop! I was mortified.
Oneup,thanks for your message.Without being flippant ( as above),your guess is as good as mine.I tend to see it as a series of minor skirmishes and there will be many twists and turns along the way.I wouldn't read very much into it,but I would rate it negatively.Is it in anyway relevant to any substantive part of the case? I think not.

[ianio5691] 24/11/2020 11:50

Chart looking primed for a push back to £10....

[time_traveller] 24/11/2020 11:43

The judge, far from making the court look scrupulously fair, risks appearing to be lead on an endless merry dance to the tune of Argentina.

[onup] 24/11/2020 11:35

Lorax,djderry, implying turned the wrong way .?

[djderry] 24/11/2020 08:05

Thanks lomax99.