Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[gettingrichslow] 17/8/2019 10:05

I’ve just spent the last couple of hours reading the first 600 posts or so on this thread. I recommend others do the same to get a sense of perspective as to what has happened here over the last few weeks. Really interesting stuff.

[mad foetus] 17/8/2019 09:52

Won't the ability of BUR to respond to that depend upon the terms of the settlement? And doesn't every settlement have pretty strict provisions on what to disclose?So it is quite possible that a case was settled on the basis that Napo and all parties associated with the case never say who the other party is or how much the case was settled for.

[cokehookerscars] 17/8/2019 09:50

Sounds rather straight forward and the answer will indicate whether Burford are trustworthy or not.

[bbmsionlypostafter] 17/8/2019 09:32

On the surface it would appear to be a straightforward, simple question.

"So quite simply can Burford name the other case involving Napo it sponsored which resulted in those 2013 winnings."

An Open Letter to Jonny Allison, Nomad to Burford re Material non disclosure on Napo

[luckymouse] 17/8/2019 00:20

In copy paste repeat mode H?

[henchard] 17/8/2019 00:15

Develpha,

MW haven't closed their short. They still see value in retaining a short position.

Sure, you can reproach MW for their tactics, but everything is stacked against shorters and if they believe what they say they believe, you can understand them trying to reduce the odds of being wiped out.

As Charlie said: "It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then watch it go from X to 3X and watch the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls."

Of course, the moral - or we might say saint or scumball - question is whether MW actually believes BUR is a stock promotion, or whether they think it's a perfectly good business they're happy to trash.

You suggest, let's give it a couple of weeks. Maybe. But Buffet said of that 1954 short "I wouldn’t have been wrong over 10 years, but I was very wrong after 10 weeks."

[qruz] 17/8/2019 00:14

GRC, let’s be honest it just seems most PI’s and even II’s just don’t know how to value BUR. lots of other stocks to pick which aren’t in a mess.

[gettingrichslow] 17/8/2019 00:07

Has anyone else noticed the huge contrast between what has happened here with regards the CFO appointment and the CFO appointment at Kier?
For those not aware, Kier have had big problems recently, share price has tanked 90% or so, and they announced a new CFO on 01 Aug. And who did they get in? The ex-CFO of RPC Group, who were recently taken out by a US firm after investors in RPC lost confidence after a big ding-dong over accounting issues.

Can you imagine what would have happened if BUR had put the ex-RPC guy in charge???

Yet over at Kier they seem as happy as can be and I can’t see a single post questioning the guy’s credentials?!!! Added to which Kier’s share price has shot up since the appointment!!

It’s all very strange to compare and contrast with what’s going on at BUR.

Would be interested in other’s views...am I missing something??

[devalpha] 16/8/2019 23:45

Henchard, the quotes you list are related to general shorting, where investors take a negative view on company prospects and take a short position. No issue with that.The MW approach of putting on a short prior to releasing a sensational, exaggerated, factually incorrect report, aimed at primarily driving out retail holders, and then closing after making a quick killing, would I'm sure be classified as , "scumball activity," by both Charlie and Warren. What a way to make a living when it's easy if you just get your head down and do the right things.What high profile, respected, and generally well thought of successful investor have you ever heard of paying for ex CIA agents to issue a report analysing management responses to questions?Block's running scared in my view, but let's give it a couple of weeks.In life you need to be careful who you pick your fights with. In my view, Block's underestimated Bogart & Molot....seriously underestimated them. Good luck to all long term holders.

[williamcooper104] 16/8/2019 23:34

5 percent of euro high yield bond market with a negative yield so basically free/v cheap CDS short opportunity

[williamcooper104] 16/8/2019 23:32

It's why credit default swaps where a great way of shorting (so long as the target had a capital structure that enabled it) as you know from the outset what your maximum loss is Have recently invested in Greenlight RE as they've shorting Britain (generally) and "high " yield US debt

[trident5] 16/8/2019 22:56

Anyone thinking of shorting stock should first read: Fooling some of the people all of the time.

[henchard] 16/8/2019 22:40

Devalpha,

Ironically, Charlie's "scumball activity" quote refers to speculative promotions, specifically bitcoin. But he and Buffett are equally scathing of stock promotions, while happy about the role played by short sellers in regulating the market.

They just don't (or don't any longer) think it's worth participating in shorting stocks, mainly because of risk, and Berkshire now being far too big anyway.

Buffett: "Companies with a large short interest very often have been revealed as frauds or semi-frauds ... Over the years, I’ve probably had 100 ideas of things to short and I would have eventually been right."

Munger: "It would be one of the most irritating experiences in the world to do a lot of work to uncover a fraud and then watch it go from X to 3X and watch the crooks happily partying with your money while you’re meeting margin calls."

Buffett: "I had a harrowing experience shorting a stock in 1954. I wouldn’t have been wrong over 10 years, but I was very wrong after 10 weeks, which was the relevant period. My net worth was evaporating. Shorting is just tough."

Buffett: "You’ll see way more stocks that are dramatically overvalued than dramatically undervalued. It’s common for promoters to cause a stock to become valued at 5-10 times its true value, but rare to find a stock trading at 10-20% of its true value. So you might think short selling is easy, but it’s not. Often stocks are overvalued because there is a promoter or a crook behind it. They can often bootstrap into value by using the shares of their overvalued stock. For example, if it’s worth $10 and is trading at $100, they might be able to build value to $50. Then, Wall Street says, “Hey! Look at all that value creation!” and the game goes on. [As a short seller,] you could run out of money before the promoter runs out of ideas."

Buffett: "I would never put money with a short fund – not because I have any problem with it ethically, but because I question if they could make money over time."

A smattering of quotes from Buffett and Munger on shorting (no problem with it ethically) and the scumball activity of stock promotion.

[devalpha] 16/8/2019 21:50

PAYING, yes PAYING a group of alleged ex CIA agents to issue a report to try and discredit the honesty of the Burford responses to a short attack?Seriously? This makes me think one thing only.... Block's either knows or is anticipating a legal challenge or evidence revelation imminently on the allegations Burford made last Monday. I may be wrong but I suspect not. Time will tell. This is getting more entertaining by the day. I don't think long term holders have much to worry about if they can withstand the short term psychological warfare from an outfit who as Charlie would say, are engaged in a scumball activity.Next 2 weeks will be very interesting.Apologies, no time tonight for any serious takedown of the latest MW nonsense, but I think their actions speak for themselves.The business will emerge stronger in the long run. Long term holders will not be concerned over short term price quotations.Enjoy the weekend despite the inevitable broadsheet sensationalism. Good luck to all long term holders.Check out the Block American Tower short history as weekend reading.

[hawkind] 16/8/2019 21:43

winsome, you talk alot of sense.

[yidarmytom] 16/8/2019 20:57

Investor Research Laboratory Limited have not filed their Accounts, just saying

[inv] 16/8/2019 19:17

Back over £9 on Monday

[inv] 16/8/2019 19:16

Back over £9 on Monday

[gettingrichslow] 16/8/2019 18:56

I’m so bored of SweetK. So bored. Dullest poster I’ve ever come across.