Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[lazg] 09/5/2024 08:27

+ investor call here at 1pm BST

[djderry] 09/5/2024 02:44

Q1 results on Monday.

[lazg] 08/5/2024 22:53

While I do not like that Milei guy (he has problems of his own), we might be lucky that he was elected. I see all of this favorably: the only way to avoid things becoming too public is to pay. Whoever, in the opposition, has dirty laundry should have an interest in supporting Milei if he wants to settle (for completely different reasons: to appease the IMF and potential investors). We might be very lucky that they were corrupt. They can't scream to loudly.

[chester9] 08/5/2024 22:17

Thanks for posting it's almost unbelievable to read what went on. President Milei has so much to deal with let's hope he gets chance to set his country straight, I suspect he will make progress but sadly something will get in his way at some stage. A lot of corrupt politicians and public officials will do their worst to bring him down.

[extrader] 08/5/2024 21:06

YPF won't want to 'self-incriminate'...but if court-ordered may have to.

Which would (presumably) damage its defence...but expose the Kirchners and Kicillof, which may be part of Mileis' 'cunning plan'

IIRC someone on Argentina's legal team 'pulled the plug' a long time ago on earlier motions of discovery, allegedly because it became apparent where it might/would lead.

It was reported thusly, somewhere. I'll have a look.

[chester9] 08/5/2024 19:43

From SebYPF today will file a report in Judge Preska's court explaining why it should not turnover documents/information that could demonstrate that the oil and gas company is Argentina's Alter Ego. If judgment creditors can demonstrate that the Republic and YPF are "the same thing", then they can seek and attach YPF assets.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 08/5/2024 17:40

hxxps://twitter.com/i/web/status/1788244071946891555

[kuk1doh] 08/5/2024 11:34

It’s now almost six weeks after quarter one end. Q1 results should be with us in the next week… ahead of AGM and the retail investor conference.

[lomax99] 08/5/2024 11:14

Burford will be presenting at an AJ Bell Shares investor evening in London on 21st May.

[extrader] 07/5/2024 23:50

Ashmore latest

.."Argentina: The Economic Ministry is discussing a new programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), laying out its new monetary and exchange rate plans.
Minister Luis Caputo expects inflation to slow again in May.
The Lower House approved the first chapter of President Milei’s new omnibus bill that expands his executive power over administrative, financial, economic and energy matters for one year.
This includes dissolving special purpose government funds and privatising companies.

These measures have now moved to discussion in the Senate."

[lazg] 07/5/2024 17:08

And to you, Tom.

[tomtrudgian] 07/5/2024 09:59

Agree entirely, Extrader. Huge hat tips also to you, lazg, maddox, rider75 and many others.
Tom Trudgian

[extrader] 07/5/2024 08:56

Hat tip to Blue Wiley



Elon Musk

@elonmusk
I recommend investing in Argentina

GLA

[maddox] 06/5/2024 11:49

Good find Extrader. Yep its all about the timing.

If a firm could invest in pursuing an advantageous case and gain a favourable outcome within the same financial period - there would be little need for Lit Fin beyond firms that are financially constrained. Firms would finance their cases themselves.

[extrader] 05/5/2024 17:10

Hat tip to BlueWiley

Greenhaven Road Capital shareholder update

From hxxps://www.greenhavenroad.com/investor-letters

Burford (BUR) - As the ancient Greeks said, "The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine." As a litigation financer, Burford has funded a large portfolio of legal cases that are working their way through the legal process. Their largest "holding" is a judgement against Argentina related to the YPF case, for which Burford is in charge of pursuing the payout.

If Burford were to collect the full $6.2B (not including post-judgement interest accruing at ~5% per year), this windfall would be worth $28 per share. To be clear, especially given Argentina's history in cases of this type, it is my expectation that Burford will take a haircut in a negotiated settlement. Interestingly, Burford's CIO Jonothan Molot appears on the visitor logs for senior Argentinian officials

(hxxps://audiencias.mininterior.gob.ar/buscar?q=molot)..

at least they are talking.

While the YPF judgment is a massive asset for Burford, it is far from the only case that should start gaining more traction in the near term. Despite receiving $242M of proceeds from $135M of pre-2020 vintage deployments in 2023, Burford still has ~$782M of deployments remaining in that vintage that we should start seeing flow through the P&L in the form of realizations as courts are now fully re-opened and cases delayed by the pandemic conclude.

Similar to the inevitable growth of KKR, excluding a change of law limiting litigation finance, I believe that Burford should continue to grow because of corporate manager incentives. They are solving two problems, particularly for public companies. First, legal cases are a drain on current year P&L. Thus, if a CEO or CFO wants to preserve this year's earnings, they can have Burford pay the legal expenses, resulting in "found money?" It is easy to see a CEO hugging the General Counsel and CFO when they tell him/her that they found the money to "save" the year simply by partnering with Burford.

The second problem is that the market does not generally attribute value to pending legal cases, and GAAP accounting does not help. However, if you sell a portion of the potential outcome to Burford for cash, the market does value that. Want to
"strengthen" your balance sheet, at least optically, for the market or lenders? Sell a part of your case to Burford. One Fortune 50 company partnered with Burford last year for a $325M commitment to their case.

Right now, Burford is the only funder with that scale. CEOs, CFOs, and General Counsels like collecting bonuses. If that means giving up some future economics to Burford, which is playing the justice-turns-slowly game, so be it. With these dynamics, I think demand will grow.

Ultimately, shareholder returns will come down to Burford's case-selection abilities, which historically have been outstanding. Since inception, only 8% of deployments have gone to adjudication and lost, resulting in a ~85% loss of capital to those line items. In contrast, 73% of deployments reached a settlement returning an average of 58% (23% IRR), and the remaining 19% reached a winning adjudication returning an average of 247% (49% IRR).

Time will tell if these high returns continue, but there is a lot of upside potential that is not being priced into shares today. The CEO seems to agree with his recent $5M purchase.

ATB

[kuk1doh] 05/5/2024 17:03

Same as BUR but just a few weeks later… which perhaps goes a long way to explain BURs earlier request to keep the court documents sealed.

[extrader] 05/5/2024 16:51

Seb's latest, overnight :

..Bainbridge Fund wants Judge Preska to compel Argentina to transfer the ownership of all YPF shares expropriated by the Republic in 2012. Bainbridge is one of multiple holdouts with favorable judgment that haven’t yet received payment. Bainbridge is also trying to attach Central Bank assets...

This tweet appears to have received 101.6K views...??

Hmmm...

[extrader] 03/5/2024 20:56

Seb's latest

.."Busy month for Argentina in international courts:

1. May 8: YPF responds to the request to deliver evidence to prove to Judge Preska that it is not the Alter Ego of Argentina.

2. May 15: Province of Buenos Aires defines payment of judgment for USD 35 million to creditor Glacial Capital.

3. May 16: Argentina presents a document opposing the transfer of YPF shares to the beneficiaries of the ruling.

4. May 21: Oral presentation begins in London court for the appeal of the PBI Coupon ruling.

5. May 30: Beneficiaries of the YPF ruling present a document supporting the transfer of the shares into the hands of the State and the provinces...

GLA

[somerset lad] 03/5/2024 16:33

Away from Argentina ... the Competition Appeal Tribunal has published its judgment granting a Collective Proceedings Order in the Spottiswoode case, which is funded by BUR: see hxxps://www.catribunal.org.uk/sites/cat/files/2024-05/14407722%20Clare%20Mary%20Joan%20Spottiswoode%20CBE%20v%20Nexans%20France%20S.A.S.%20%26%20Others%20-%20Judgment%20%28Collective%20Proceedings%20Order%29%20%203%20May%202024.pdf

Details of BUR's funding arrangement (investment up to £30.175m + up to a further £10m; potential payout to BUR to recoup the sums invested + 3 x the sum invested) is at paras 23-25, followed by discussion of compliance of the funding arrangement with the Supreme Court's PACCAR judgment.

For anyone not following, Spottiswoode is a class action against members of the power cable cartel brought on behalf of people who paid for domestic consumption of electricity supplied via the distribution network in Great Britain on or after 1 April 2001 and claim to have paid inflated power prices. (There is a separate case called London Array that has been brought by an operator of a wind farm that bought power cables directly form the cartel: see today's Judgment at para 38.)

[375uv] 02/5/2024 21:32

Things are getting interesting in Argentina.

[extrader] 02/5/2024 19:34

Seb continues his lobbying/consultancy :

..I have said more than once that respecting court times and waiting for a new ruling to be published is not a responsible legal strategy. History is not on our side.

Let's summarize what happened recently:

1. Request for transfer of ownership of YPF shares.
2. Request for recognition of the ruling in Ireland.
3. Request for information to prove that YPF and Argentina are "the same" and thus go after the oil company's assets.
4. The IMF warns the country that these trials may complicate the return to international credit markets.

I understand that the YPF issue is toxic for the Government, but kicking the ball is not an appropriate legal strategy.

I am not asking to pay at this time. Just pick up the phone before it gets even more complicated.

also posts newspaper headlines ( La Nacion) pointing the finger at Christina Kirchner.

Meanwhile - also la Nacion - Argentina's Central Bank has lowered interest rates .."In 50 days, the BRCA applied four rate cuts, from 100% p.a. to 80% last March, then from 80% to 70% 21 days ago, and from 70% to 60% last week..."; and

."Argentina today officially began the process of joining the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), when Foreign Minister Diana Mondino received from the Secretary General, Mathias Cormann, the "road map" that the country must follow before becoming a full member of the organisation, which brings together the 38 most prosperous countries on the planet, which account for 75 per cent of investment and 60 per cent of global trade..."

[three black crows] 02/5/2024 18:05

TNT99,Now that is a question I have been pondering for some time.Let's see how Burford get to work negotiating this major claim. I would like to think that 2025 is our year to celebrate. I can't see this case being settled this year