Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[tomtrudgian] 14/3/2024 09:20

Don’t forget, guys and gals. UK shareholders can trade immediately (from 11am GMT) after the FY23 results are announced. US shareholders can only trade from 8am EDT (12 am GMT). One hour later.

[hohum1] 14/3/2024 07:41

It’s both, TT. Their capacity to write new business is limited by the cash they have in the bank and the credit facilities they have available. They do not generally over-commit ie write business assuming they will fund it by the proceeds of outstanding cases or by issuing shares. So to issue “expensiveR21; debt (albeit cheap versus their potential return) implies they have plenty of new business opportunities open to them

[time_traveller] 13/3/2024 14:14

The obvious question will be; why the $275m of further, and quite expensive borrowing - bullishness, or necessity... though the results themselves will likely answer that one. Let's see if they are as good at bringing money in, as sending it out/giving it to employees?!

[chester9] 13/3/2024 12:48

12:00 webcast tomorrow Q4 and FY23.I thought share price might have had a positive reaction but has dropped from 13:43 in September to 10:84.GLA ahead of results, they should be good and of course a bit brain achey to follow.

[extrader] 11/3/2024 16:37

Ashmore's comments this week :

.."Argentina: Vehicle sales increased to 33.2k in February from 15.9k in January as production increased to 37.5k from 22.6k over the same period, the highest level for the month in five years, but still below the average over the last 10 years. Vehicle exports rose to 23.6k from 15.3k (highest since 2015). Construction activity dropped by 10.3% mom in January, a drop of 21.7% in yoy seasonal-adjusted terms. The central bank continued to accumulate FX reserves and Bloomberg reported locals have deposited USD 2.3bn in dollar-denominated accounts in local banks since Javier Milei took office, a 17% increase to USD 16.4bn."

GLA

[tomtrudgian] 11/3/2024 13:44

Thank you Extrader, as always, for your informed and extensive research. No, lawyers don’t come cheap, or even cheaply for those who prefer adverbs to adjectives. I agreed, without my actual knowledge, with SL’s suggestion that the legally ATTACHABLE YPF assets are limited. I therefore think that the legal cost may be irrelevant.

What I wish to return to, ad nauseam, is to help shareholders understand Burford’s accounts. Deployments and Realisations are just cash out & in, every three months. Not important to an assessing a business with results unknown and unknowable for years.

Only 3 matters seem both to be, to an extent, quantifiable, and essential to shareholders.
1/ In particular the quite astonishing five-fold annual increase in the level of Capital Provision Income. If confirmed in the audited 2023 FY results.
2/ The level of Commitments in the audited Q4, when soon known. Commitments are not cash in or out. They are newly contracted investments in approved future investments negotiated months before. Shareholders may wish to use algorithms to guess future business activity, profit or loss.
3/ This one is wholly irrelevant to Burford long term prospects, but may well be to the immediate Burford share price when the FY results are announced:
In the conceivable event that the YPF Q3 carrying fair value of US 1.3m dollars is altered by the auditors in FY 2023 the share price may well be affected up or down.

Finally, Extrader could you kindly advise how I can access the YPF Q4/presentation?
Prospects for YPF and Argentina seem awesome in a couple of years.

[extrader] 11/3/2024 13:42

Hi Tomtrudgian,

I went here : hxxps://investors.ypf.com/

On the homepage upper right there's a box that gives you access to the presentation.

I tried just now and - even though historic - it appears that you can still view.
You have to register.

Lasts about an hour.

I'd be interested in your thoughts!

HTH

[tomtrudgian] 11/3/2024 13:07

Thank you Extrader, as always, for your informed and extensive research. No, lawyers don’t come cheap, or even cheaply for those who prefer adverbs to adjectives. I agreed, without any actual knowledge, with SL’s suggestion that the legally ATTACHABLE YPF assets are limited. I therefore think that the legal costs may be irrelevant.

What I wish to return to, ad nauseam, is to help shareholders understand Burford’s accounts. Deployments and Realisations are just cash out & in, every three months. Not important to a business with results unknown and unknowable for years.

Only 3 matters seem both essential and, to an extent, quantifiable:
1/ The quite astonishing five fold 2023 increase in the level of Capital Provision Income.
2/ The level of Commitments in audited Q4, when known imminently. Commitments are not cash in or out. They are newly contracted investments` in future investments negotiated long before BUR approval. Shareholders may wish to use algorithms to guess future business activity, profit or loss.
3/ This one is irrelevant to Burford long term value, but only to the immediate Burford share price when announced:
In the unlikely event that the YPF Q3 carrying fair value of US 1.3m is altered by the auditors up or down in FY 2023 the share price may well be affected.

Finally, Extrader could you kindly advise how we can acces the YPF Q4/presentation?
Prospects for YPF and Argentina seem awesome in a couple of years.

[extrader] 09/3/2024 18:24

Another take on Argentina, from Jacob Shapiro of Cognitive Investments.



.. I think there’s a lot of interesting things happening around the world, but I really do think Argentina is an interesting place to keep focused. Now, I’m not saying that Milei is going to be able to turn it around, and he’s got a long road to hoe, but part of me wonders, is this... Brazil had a moment like this around ‘94, ‘95 where they had hyperinflation, and they really had to reset things, and they had to think very clearly about structural reforms. It took them until about now to get to the point where all of that was starting to pay off.

I wonder if Argentina is at the very, very beginning moments of that, where we finally ticked bottom, and that Milei is a signal that people want real change there.

It’s interesting because from a geopolitical perspective, Argentina has everything you possibly could want. It’s the entrance to the Rio de la Plata, really doesn’t have any rivals around it that are going to threaten it, it can play all sides, ample resources that it can export. They have their own version of the shale revolution happening, so they’re going to add hydrocarbons to the list.

If you could just—but people have been saying this about Argentina for 100 years too—but if you could just get them to change their culture... and maybe it takes a guy who communes with his dead dog to get election strategy to be the man to push it forward.

As we’re looking back at 2023 and 2024, I wonder if we’ll say, “That was the year that Argentina finally started to change.” It’s a very interesting political experiment that’s happening..."

GLA and ATB

[extrader] 09/3/2024 16:05

I listened to YPF Q4/FYE results presentation the other day.

Presentation by 3 x execs, in English, somewhat wooden 'talking to teleprompter' and slides supporting commentary that were difficult to read and only shown briefly. Interesting background footage of YPF operations and the Argentine countryside.

My summary take-away :

- YPF has a 4x4 plan - to quadruple the share price in 4 years. The way it hopes to do this shows the extent of economic mismanagement (but also potential):

- it wants to divest a large part of its bloated historic businesses (60% of its oil production + 40% of its gas production)that together contribute barely 1% - 1%! to the bottom line;

- it hopes to have awarded an arranger mandate for multiple discrete privatisations by end Q1 2024 and have the divestment process underway by Q3 2024;

- use the proceeds (+ external funding + 'strategic partner') to develop its world-class LNG potential (hitherto unexploited) over the next 3-4 years (leasing floating LNG plants to kickstart the process), with eventual targets of 25-30 Mtpa and $ 15Bn pa export earnings;
[Ed.: for comparison, Qatar 77mtpa; Australia 44mtpa; Malaysia 24mtpa; Nigeria 22mtpa; Indonesia 16mtpa; Algeria 12mtpa; Russia 10mtpa; Trinidad 10mtpa; Oman 8mtpa];

- divestment/privatisation is expected to unlock the 'hidden value' of assets-for-sale (hidden by bloated workforces, financial mismanagement and unproductive past 'politically-directed' investment), YPF counting on est. cost-savings of $ 800m pa as much as on actual sale proceeds [Ed.: management understandably reticent to quantify these];

- all the while, YPF expects to build on the 25% contribution of renewables (solar/wind) to the current bottom line.

Management fielded questions from UBS, JP Morgan, Santander, BTG Pascual and - I think- Seb Maril's LatAm Securities, with what I thought were fairly vague answers to a lot of the harder questions, perhaps understandably so, given the 'uncharted waters' that Argentina is now in.

I've had a shareholding in both BUR and YPF for a while now, am comfortably up on both and see no reason atm to divest.

NAI, DYOR, E&OE etc etc

[kaos3] 09/3/2024 14:31

How i see it as a simple gardener

They are slowly imposing ever increasing sanctions on Argentina.

Step by step blocking them in all major fin centres.

Till pressure is so great that they are forced to talk.

Each lawsuil by itself will not get/have major impact soonish. But once they accumulate... there is no more place of size to hide.

Blocking process will take some time to develope.

Passive agressive

[extrader] 09/3/2024 12:21

Hi Tomtrudgian

The 'known known' is that UK lawyers don't come cheap ...the Petersen clique finances are presumably limited; we're told that they aren't being financed by BUR ( Q1 why not? Q2 but maybe by someone else? Q3 if so would BUR agree to that?)....yet they/their lawyers (if on contingency) obviously feel there is a point - otherwise, why do it?

You've been quick to dismiss SL's speculation as to the possible reason for a UK action - fair enough - but then segued into the (known)challenges and difficulties.

For balance, some speculation of your own on why - despite these apparent headwinds - Petersen nevertheless apparently feel this is worth pursuing would be welcome.

Cheers!

[muzmanoz] 09/3/2024 09:15

More gibberish

[tomtrudgian] 09/3/2024 08:50

No, probably not, SL. Only a few ‘attachable217; assets in Argentina too it now seems. Possibly a few in latin Europe and Germany, but at what legal cost and time frame? Realising cash from those who do not wish to pay, or cannot politically creates a further difficulty for the BUR indemnity insurers. They have to assess whether the US dollar 1.3m YPF current carrying value should be fair valued up or down. That ‘going concern’ decision is not for Burford or, in practice, for their auditor’s.

That FY asset carrying value, and in particular the level of new investment commitments should be studied carefully by long term investors.

Little else really, and the level of BUR cash realisations in the final 3 months can almost be disregarded by shareholders (but illogically will not be!)

Supposing however that when some YPF cash is eventually received, it is little more than the recovery costs. It is entirely possible that BUR current share price is still a bargain.

[somerset lad] 08/3/2024 19:03

I can't imagine Argentina has many assets in the UK, so presumably the thinking is that a UK Commercial Court judgment supporting the enforcement of the NY Judgment will encourage the courts in other states to assist.

[extrader] 08/3/2024 18:31

Per Seb, the litigation just started in London Commercial court isn't BUR-financed

.."Petersen/Eton are financing the motion to recognize Judge Preska’s NY YPF judgment in London’s Commercial Court. Pertersen is using its own funds while Eton has pledge future earnings from the award. Burford is not financing this action. A recognition of the judgment occurs when the recipient of the award is seeking to enforce a judgment in a different jurisdiction from the original ruling..."

Although BUR 'not involved', I hope that this has their tacit approval, and isn't a case of the clients 'going rogue'....and possibly 'muddying the waters' (groan)in NY.

GLA

[time_traveller] 08/3/2024 09:35

Presumably mithaq aren't your usual run of the mill IIs and have particular influences: their comments are quite refreshing in a way. No complaints here - provided a nice opportunity to trade out north of £12 and back in yesterday.

[kuk1doh] 08/3/2024 06:57

Ya, reminds me of girlfriends in my teenage years… “it’s me, not you!” 😉

[sam55todd] 08/3/2024 04:05

RE: We hate this disposal but we have all the intentions to buyback these shares as soon as we could.
This is either intentionally misleading or not smart.
You wouldn't inform market about buying back because it will most likely keep share price higher therefore making a secondary re-entry point more expensive (hence reducing your return on investment), and I don't think they're stupid.

[extrader] 08/3/2024 03:26

Mithaq's explanation seems plausible. Hat tip to Poolefax

.."We built our position in BUR in 2019 (post MW) and kept it since then at 10.51% level. We did some corporate restructuring in 2020 where the investor entity changed so we updated market to notify that change (no share was ever sold).

We trimmed our position the day before yesterday to fund some urgent capital injection in another situation. We hate this disposal but we have all the intentions to buyback these shares as soon as we could. Here is the situation where we needed liquidity urgently

:

GLA

[rar100] 07/3/2024 18:58

How long for anything to happen with the 16B claim made today?

I suppose the Argies can appeal it...

[dagoberia] 07/3/2024 18:55

They started buying when the share price was £5, so maybe just profit taking ? To fund all the KSA extravagant projects

[nigelpm] 07/3/2024 18:26

Oh - you're right - will have to issue an RNS correction.

[ali47fish] 07/3/2024 18:04

anyone can comment on mithq investing c 8pc- who are they?