Burford Capital Share Discussion Threads

[extrader] 21/12/2024 23:42

Argentina may pivot to US (from China)in expansion of its nuclear programme.

hxxps://slguardian.org/argentina-bets-on-nuclear-power-for-ai-growth-with-u-s-investment-partnership/

Already has 3 x nuclear power plants and strong scientific/technical* skillset already, uranium deposits (that haven't been developed as yet) and a cold climate in Patagonia well-suited to AI datacentres.

*including from the Iranians, as it happens.

(1) Something else for Musk to chew over.
Having taken on the US and Mars, he's probably looking at ROW for a fresh challenge.

(2) Argentina will probably have its SMRs up and running before the UK does. Sigh.

GLA

[djderry] 20/12/2024 11:19

Thank you Lomax,well spotted.
Adding post judgement interest of a billion dollars to the bill,discounting it by 50% and taking Burford's 42% ( or is it 43) of the overall award into account,say add $200 million to Burford's share.
(I've speculated the post-interest judgement may become part of a ' sweetner' when it comes to negotiations but less so the longer Argentina keep fighting the judgement.After all,all the legal costs are bourn by Burford)
To an extent,the delay in getting down to a negotiated settlement has been something of a ' win-win' situation.President Javier Milei has,in some respects,improved his position.Argentina's bonds have risen in that time,the premium having fallen again this week 4.4% over US Treasuries,to 677 basis points.When Argentina finally issue bonds,they will be more valuable and cost Argentina less to issue.

[lomax99] 20/12/2024 10:49

Moneyweek today:

Profit from righting a wrong In 2025 we should see the outcome of Burford Capital’s (LSE:BUR) litigation-funded court case against the Argentinian government, says Bruce Packard. The case dates back to the expropriation (theft) of YPF, the energy company, from investors. In September 2023 Judge Preska in New York awarded $16.1bn in damages to the plaintiff’s, of which Burford’s share could be $6.3bn (£5.3bn or £23 per share). That compares with a current market value of $3bn (£2.45bn or 1,060p per share) carried on Burford’s balance sheet.

After BUR’s win in September, Argentina filed an appeal; a decision is likely in 2025. BUR expects a negotiated result at under 100% of the judgement value, but the stock price implies either that the case will be lost on appeal or that Burford won’t be able to enforce the judgement of a US court on a sovereign state.

The firm also enjoyed a record quarter in 2024, generating cash receipts of $310m. Realisations from the core portfolio of disputes doubled year on year to $165m. Burford is a share that investors struggle to value: the price peaked at £20 per share in 2018 before slumping when Muddy Waters, the short seller, questioned the group’s fair value accounting write-ups for court cases such as the YPF dispute. Even if BUR doesn’t receive the full £23 per share from Argentina, a judgement in its favour and enforcement should validate its litigation-finance business model.

[extrader] 18/12/2024 21:58

Then there's this one, also from seb :

i🔴Wall Street Journal interview to President Milei:

"President Javier Milei said U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will help boost his free-market overhaul of Argentina as this large South American nation, which had long kept the U.S. at arm’s length, repositions itself closer to Washington. In an interview, the 54-year-old firebrand said that he is betting Trump is likely to champion Argentina’s bid to get billions of dollars in new financing from the International Monetary Fund"/i

GLA

[extrader] 16/12/2024 16:02

Milei has said that he wants/ knows he has to respect the rule of law to attract sustainable foreign investment.
Why should an 'autocratic' Trump who admires Milei (supposedly) wish to frustrate him...esp as US investors are likely the main beneficiaries of enforcement?
Remember, too that Preska is a Federalist...and Trump has appointed ex-YPF lawyer Landau as Deputy Secretary of State (see past posts on this man).
Your assertion is inconsistent, AFAICS, with the facts in front of us.
GLA

[madmax1989] 16/12/2024 13:14

I cannot share the optimism about the share price performance.
We see an intact Burford Capital that has delivered above average results in its 2024 quarterly reports. The share price is not rewarding this, which is disappointing enough as the legal pipeline is full and Burford is delivering.

The share price is fully linked to the expectation of execution in Argentina, see the recent share price collapse.

We are now entering a four-year period of dealmaking in the US and mutual expressions of sympathy between two presidents with similar economic policies. Trump has already proven that he can make autocratic decisions and get the courts behind him. I don't see the US government seeking any real enforcement, see also Séb's post from 12.11.

I still hold the stock, but I don't see any real improvement in the share price at the moment if there is no enforcement in Argentina.

[djderry] 15/12/2024 19:26

That's a fascinating find,Extrader.Thank you and Seb.

[extrader] 15/12/2024 17:17

And if you've got the time to spare, Seb has just posted this :

🔴If you’re interested in a good podcast about the litigation risk that Argentina is facing, I’m sharing a podcast published this Friday by the lawyers currently suing Argentina in: (1) Euro GDP Warrants, (2) Attestor Master, and (3) Province of Buenos Aires defaulted debt case.



GLA

[three black crows] 15/12/2024 12:41

I believe the hunt is nearly over. It may well be towards the back end of 2025 when we are rewarded. Not long now, particularly if you have been invested here a long time.

[this tea tastes of chicken] 15/12/2024 10:38

You can turn around a country's economic fortunes if you are radical enough (though it takes time), you can even change the culture of a country if you try hard enough (look at our lot) but if you want voluminous capital flows through your country then you have to be welcomed back into the pack. Patience guys, 2025 is just days away.

[extrader] 15/12/2024 02:53

Worth listening to : Milei interviewed by The Spectator.



45 mins, but well worth it, IMO.

Milei presents well, not as some kind of academic nut-job, but very human in his excitement at meeting Sylvester Stallone (alongside Trump and Musk) and his fanboy enthusiasm for the Rolling Stones, the Beatles, Byron, Shakespeare (alongside Thatcher) etc.

Discusses pragmatically amongst other things : Trump's tariffs; the Malvinas; and his discovery that China is presenting as a good, respectful partner.

He'll fight Argentina's corner- but cleanly- was the clear impression I got.

IMO, DYOR, etc etc

GLA and ATB

[lomax99] 13/12/2024 10:40

How can this post possibly deserve a thumbs down? Good link, thanks for sharing.

[foetus in your brain] 12/12/2024 21:07

htTps://www.geradinpartners.com/dr-or-brook-to-file-multi-billion-pound-damages-action-against-google-on-behalf-of-uk-search-advertisers/

[tnt99] 12/12/2024 19:03

Paying a billion a year for the next 20 years would be fine by me!!

[ih_663475] 11/12/2024 23:17

Seb's observation


hxxps://lanacion.com.ar/economia/la-corte-del-distrito-de-columbia-dejo-firme-la-sentencia-que-ordena-al-pais-pagar-us390-millones-nid11122024/

A court in the District of Columbia has ordered the Republic of Argentina to pay $390.9 million to Titan Consortium for the expropriation of Aerolíneas Argentinas.

The original expropriation/nationalisation was handiwork of Kicillof, who now objects to its re-privatisation :

hxxps://www.ambito.com/politica/el-gobierno-le-respondio-axel-kicillof-aerolineas-argentinas-la-expropiaron-y-la-quebraron-

.."The government of Javier Milei mocked the Buenos Aires governor, Axel Kicillof, after he announced his proposal for the Province to take control of Aerolíneas Argentinas. "They expropriated it and bankrupted it," Casa Rosada stated, ......noting that "they turned it into a militant employment box."

This prompts Seb to remark

- The Government speaks and gives its opinion on everything, except the court cases.

- Wall Street writes and analyzes everything about Argentina, except the court cases.

- The IMF advises and makes projections on everything except lawsuits.

- Rating agencies raise the country's rating citing an improvement in its ability to pay, but they forget about the lawsuits.

- Multinationals, when making investments, ask about everything except what the lawsuits and attitude to the rule of law represent.

- It's USD 30 billion (USD 18 billion with a final judgment) that everyone is ignoring. A tsunami about to break.

GLA

[extrader] 09/12/2024 21:00

Ashmore latest :

.."Argentina: The central bank cut policy rates by 300bps to 32%. The decision goes AGAINST the IMF recommendation to bring interest rates to positive level in real terms. CPI inflation dropped to 2.8% mom in November, an annualised rate of c. 39%. President Javier Milei approval rating rose to 47% in November,* from 43% in October driven by declining inflation and rising real wages.."

* Starmer, eat your heart out. Better still, take note.

Also : Highest November vehicle sales in 6 years...

Still moving in the right direction, AFAICS.

GLA

[ih_663475] 06/12/2024 16:41

Grateful if whoever is downticking what is mostly factual information without providing a reason either have the cojones to share said reason (so we can have an adult exchange of views) or - failing that - to at least identify themselves so that I can filter as a waste of space.

TIA

[djderry] 06/12/2024 16:11

If confirmed this is extremely positive.

[ih_663475] 06/12/2024 15:09

Ref yesterday's Mr Marroc post, this just in from Seb

.."🛑Second media outlet/research firm that confirms ongoing negotiations between Argentina and GDP Warrants judgment creditors.
First was Argentina’s TN, now Octus (formerly Reorg).
Everything points to the execution of the EUR 313 million guarantee and the subsequent payment of some EUR 1.3 billion.
I haven’t been able to verify it in spite of my numerous calls to the government...

ATB

[ih_663475] 05/12/2024 19:45

Ashmore 2025 Emerging Market outlook.

Argentina :

Argentina: Policymakers have made extraordinary progress in 2024, with a fiscal adjustment and de-regulation efforts that have surpassed expectations.

President Javier Milei’s ‘economic shock therapy’ and crawling peg FX system gradually brought sky-high inflation under control in 2024, even though managed prices surged as subsidies were dashed.

Consumer confidence and economic activity are picking up again. With a significant share of the austerity-driven pain now in the rear-view mirror, most analysts are forecasting a rebound in export investment and economic growth of around 4% in 2025.

The next big step will be the gradual removal of capital controls in 2025, without restoking inflation and sparking big outflows.

If Economy Minister Luis Caputo and his team can pull this off, it would be a major milestone and mark a new paradigm for Argentina as an investment destination.

Argentina will also go to legislative elections in October 2025, which will be a crucial opportunity for Milei’s party to increase its paltry presence in Congress."

Quite encouraging!
GLA

[djderry] 05/12/2024 14:53

Most interesting,thanks extrader.

[ih_663475] 04/12/2024 16:48

Pragmatic Milei...

hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentina-seeks-its-first-wheat-shipments-to-china-in-decades.phtml

Sporadic rains over the last few months fell just in time to keep plants in good condition, spurring improved yields, said Gabriel Abregos, an estimates analyst at the Bahia Blanca bourse. The US Department of Agriculture expects a national Argentine wheat crop of 17.5 million tons, up from 15.9 million last season.

China’s potential as a market for Argentine wheat may increase if Trump’s vow to slap tariffs on imports sparks a full-on trade war with retaliatory levies imposed by Beijing.

“Brazil took advantage of Trump’s first trade war, boosting its endeavour to be an agricultural force,” Idigoras said in an interview. “We need to know what a second trade war would look like — long, short, multi-destination, multi-product? — to see who could seize the opportunity this time around.”

It's an ill wind (or raincloud)...
GLA